Too early still to be confident. However, it could get those of us who plumped for a mild winter back on track. It's a bit like being 65 for 5 and and the sixth wicket putting on 150. 

Edit: I think you may say there are signs of the pitch beginning to lose its pace and bounce. 

 

I still think the SSW might be lining up a googly for the end of this month, just a question of whether it can pull such a difficult ball off..

---

Just been looking at ensembles again, struggling to see anything particularly mild, maybe a day or two in South might reach double figures (10c), perhaps even 11c in London. But nights still down at 3-6c.

Probably better described as not cold rather than mild, as mild tends to be used for more like 10-15c daytimes

---

Sometimes less is more and for simplicity I like the UKMO and today’s 144hr chart looks encouraging:

---

Just been looking at ensembles again, struggling to see anything particularly mild, maybe a day or two in South might reach double figures (10c), perhaps even 11c in London. But nights still down at 3-6c.

Probably better described as not cold rather than mild, as mild tends to be used for more like 10-15c daytimes

I agree about the coming week - a couple of days which may reach 10c in the south.

But my understanding of the definitions is something like:

ca 2c above average - rather mild

ca 4c above - mild

>6c above - very mild

ca 2c below - rather cold

ca 4c below - cold

>6c below - very cold

Average for the northern Home Counties is around 8c in mid-January, so 14/15c would be very mild; 1/2c very cold.

 

---

GFSP leading the way tonight and potentially showing the way to colder routes 😂

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=204&run=12&lid=PARA&h=0&mv=0&tr=3

Martin

---

Sometimes less is more and for simplicity I like the UKMO and today’s 144hr chart looks encouraging:

I couldn’t agree more ; at this range it is more reliable and has been very consistent run to run.

---

 

 

Here is a link regarding this second warming which the met office think will have a greater impact on our weather, probably towards the end of the month.

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/55662527

I have to be honest that as it's a BBC "might happen" I'd have a tendency to take it with a pinch of salt. Since they ditched the Met Office for their data supply their provisioning is open to review. For example, I noted 2 weeks ago in their Countryfile presentation, that the temperatures were 17C in the West Country, I don't think so! I still remain convinced ANY models really are able to define anything beyond 3 days currently..

---

Sometimes less is more and for simplicity I like the UKMO and today’s 144hr chart looks encouraging:

Agreed - and quite similar to GFS.

---

GEFS ensemble mean at 144hrs .

I don’t think there’s any point going much further than that atm tbh

GFSP looked like it was setting up something decent but somehow manages to go mild again very quickly.

Very few of the charts being churned out look like plausible pressure patterns to be honest, just chaotic and random looking.

---

 

I have to be honest that as it's a BBC "might happen" I'd have a tendency to take it with a pinch of salt. Since they ditched the Met Office for their data supply their provisioning is open to review. For example, I noted 2 weeks ago in their Countryfile presentation, that the temperatures were 17C in the West Country, I don't think so! I still remain convinced ANY models really are able to define anything beyond 3 days currently..

I would say 3 days generally accurate, 7 days trend generally accurate, after that varies from sometimes helpful for general pattern to no better than it was ten years ago in real usefulness and is usually useless.

---

 

I have to be honest that as it's a BBC "might happen" I'd have a tendency to take it with a pinch of salt. Since they ditched the Met Office for their data supply their provisioning is open to review. For example, I noted 2 weeks ago in their Countryfile presentation, that the temperatures were 17C in the West Country, I don't think so! I still remain convinced ANY models really are able to define anything beyond 3 days currently..

 

Everything at the moment is a might happen, they do clearly explain that the second warming is likely to effect our weather more,towards the end of the month. No solid prediction, would be pointless after 3 or 4 days.

Again the GFS Op/Control and Para are milder options which has been the case over the past several runs including this mornings 00 and 06z however we still had one or two down to or even below -10c @ 850 but now there are none and the ENS mean has got much milder from 25th along with the GFS:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

---

By T276 the coldest 850mb temperature of any of the 32 runs is -3C on the south coast. That is pretty dire considering only a couple of days ago there were masses of runs at -10C or lower.

---

By T276 the coldest 850mb temperature of any of the 32 runs is -3C on the south coast. That is pretty dire considering only a couple of days ago there were masses of runs at -10C or lower.

Yup. I stopped the "ensemble watch" on the 13th, when there was a sudden change in the ensembles (the previous 12 runs of the GEFS had 10 or more members with -10s, then on the 13th that dropped to 3). The fun thing is the EPS was never very keen on -10s, the "plume" charts only ever had a couple of members even while GEFS was happily churning out quite a few of them.

I guess it's not that surprising: the ECM is well-regarded for its stratospheric handling, IIRC

---

By T276 the coldest 850mb temperature of any of the 32 runs is -3C on the south coast. That is pretty dire considering only a couple of days ago there were masses of runs at -10C or lower.

It will be interesting to see what it is in another couple of days based on that level of change. My attention is on the day 5-7 period.

---

There used to be a theory that models cannot handle the output when an easterly is due. Now it’s the same during an SSW, makes me wonder if there’s an element of wishful thinking. Despite what the beeb say

By T276 the coldest 850mb temperature of any of the 32 runs is -3C on the south coast. That is pretty dire considering only a couple of days ago there were masses of runs at -10C or lower.

Yes Rob - I was just looking actually, there was me thinking that there is usually at least one or two ENS or more that go down to or below -10c @ 850hpa and I was trying to wait to see if I could shed some light here having seen the 12z Op/Para and of course the control is a milder option in FI range like previous runs, I waited but only to find that the lowest ENS member post 27th January and all I could find is P27 which is -4.7c on 28th. There are no ENS members that go down to -5c. Remarkable!

I guess the Daily Express's Beast from the east forecast and for 20" of snow to hit the country will go down well - what next? Heatwave to hit the UK by the end of the month? Does anyone think the Daily Express editors keep an eye on the model output? I would be keen to know what their front page will be tomorrow after the past few days of forecasting BFTE and Snow etc.

 

EDIT: ENS Avg does dip below the 30 year mean in FI with several ENS dipping down below -5c again but with all the flip flopping and uncertainty and downgrades it's not even worth taking note of.

---

There has been a bit of snow this morning so no doubt that will be played up in the Express to keep the narrative going.

---

Very encouraging charts up to the far reaches of FI at 144 with cross model agreement for an increasingly cold NW'ly flow with wintry showers in Scotland edging southwards to other northern areas by Friday. The Sub 528 line reaches the South coast on Friday in 850's lowering down to -3 to -4c. Possibly even as low as -6c if some output is to be believed. 

The synoptic set up continues to be fascinating with a robust Greenland High far enough east to prevent a pesky trough pulling up mild SW'lies at that stage. This area of high pressure serves to push the jet on a more southerly path, indeed all it will take is for one of those spin off secondary lows to slide across southern England to provide some decent snow opportunities on the 'calmer evaporative' northern edge. 

The bigger picture remains poised nicely with an arctic high ushering sub -25c 850Hpa's into the north of Scandinavia at 144. 

Before then its looking like three days of rain and gales before we enter the next colder phase.

It dawned on me this morning that all three of the snow events I've witnessed here in SE Kent this winter have all cropped up within the 48-60 hour range. I believe as a forum we are wasting a lot of effort and energy over analysing post 144 charts that clearly have little credence given the pattern we find ourselves in this winter.

Exciting times for all. 

 

---