Nice pics - your inbox is full Steve so can't reply!?

What time was the pic taken? Snow falling must have been dry then for it to settle on main roads?

 

Just before 8am. The onset of the snow was accompanied by dry blowing snow that was drifting for about 30 minutes before things started to stick (as the sea level DP's above 0c at 7am slowly lifted to 200 metres by 9am.

I paid a visit to Paddlesworth (187m asl) again at 9.30 when the snow had become a rain, sleet snow mix. By 10.15 it was 100% rain.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&ext=1&type=0 

Cold cluster has entirely disappeared with the exception of a few briefly prolonging the cooler spell at the end of the next week.

After that it is pretty unanimous on a warm up, although how warm is open to question. Possibly a hint of a renewed colder incursion as we enter February.

But barring any short term surprises I think those of us in the south can safely put a fork in January. It’s done.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&ext=1&type=0 

Cold cluster has entirely disappeared with the exception of a few briefly prolonging the cooler spell at the end of the next week.

After that it is pretty unanimous on a warm up, although how warm is open to question. Possibly a hint of a renewed colder incursion as we enter February.

But barring any short term surprises I think those of us in the south can safely put a fork in January. It’s done.

I’m not sure Rob even the GEFS ensemble suite has been very volatile over the last few runs 

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I’m not sure Rob even the GEFS ensemble suite has been very volatile over the last few runs 

It has but the effect of the cold cluster disappearing is that the spread has got a lot tighter...

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Decent snow this morning in Epping Forest, got out sledging with my boy. Got my snow fix from a very marginal set-up!

Be nice to get a proper easterly in before winter is out. Plenty of time yet!

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Decent shift south on the 06z run this morning of colder 850's with a greater threat of snow for the southern half of UK later in the week and over next weekend. Hoping to see this trend continuing over coming runs.
Waste of time looking beyond day 8 as large variability from run to run shows.

 

It has but the effect of the cold cluster disappearing is that the spread has got a lot tighter...

 totally agree.

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Seriously, dont take any models as gospel after 3 or 4 days, they will flip and flop like a fish out of water until the effects of the second warming settled.

Trying to see the positive here in the medium term ENS show a shift to slightly cooler 850's between 22nd and 25th:

00z ENS AVG:

23rd -4.9c

24th -2.1c

06z ENS AVG:

23rd -5.7c

24th -3.6c

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Seriously, dont take any models as gospel after 3 or 4 days, they will flip and flop like a fish out of water until the effects of the second warming settled.

Yes we had the 2nd reversal of zonal winds again yesterday at 10hpa - do you thin this could still have an effect on the Trop in due course?

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Well it was said a couple weeks back on the metoffice video that the type of SSW that happened favours milder weather for our shores. Roll on spring..

Absolutely, at this time the effects cannot be modelled yet, the effects on troposphere through the downwelling will not be felt for a few days at least, then the models will have to deal with the westerly AO moving East again.
There is just so much for the models to deal with, very unusual, so how can we trust what any model shows us pass say 5 days max?

I still think the MET longer term outlook wlil bare out in general terms.

Forget about the specifics until 24/48 hours out.

Well it was said a couple weeks back on the metoffice video that the type of SSW that happened favours milder weather for our shores. Roll on spring..

 

The first reversal yes  the joker in the pack is the second ssw.

Yes, impressive agreement at t120 on a cold pattern becoming established.
Great potential so cheer up everyone!

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Rule one of the UK weather. There will always be an excuse available why it won't snow in the South 

Rule two - the degree of perceived uncertainty in the charts is directly proportional to how mild they are.

 

Shouldn't rule two be that the perceived uncertainty is inversely proportional to how mild they are - the more mild, the less uncertain?

(I'll take my pedant hat off now.)

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As with COVID long term outlook , I think there are many more twists and turns to come with cold and snow before this winter is out. The models don’t seem to have a clue what they are forecasting from one day to the next! We can look at them but not even the best forecasters are getting it right. It is fun though and at least we are not in a complete zonal pattern!

Seriously, dont take any models as gospel after 3 or 4 days, they will flip and flop like a fish out of water until the effects of the second warming settled.

Pretty much all that needs to be said at the moment.

👍

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Seriously, dont take any models as gospel after 3 or 4 days, they will flip and flop like a fish out of water until the effects of the second warming settled.

When will the second warming or reversal of zonal flow be settled?

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When will the second warming or reversal of zonal flow be settled?

 

Here is a link regarding this second warming which the met office think will have a greater impact on our weather, probably towards the end of the month.

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/55662527

 

 

Here is a link regarding this second warming which the met office think will have a greater impact on our weather, probably towards the end of the month.

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/55662527

Thanks Robert - i'll take a read and will this 2nd SSW/reversal have an impact on our weather toward the end of January? We shall see. 

Meanwhile - AO and NAO still remain negative and zonal winds are still in reverse and set to stay that way for another week or so:

 

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