UKMO looks as though the low to the east of the UK could start to engage with the deep cold to the northeast if the run were to continue. Ecm is not to far off either.

edit. no not on the this ecm run anyway.

The UKMO chart at 144 (albeit in FI) is cold and not without snowy interest.

Very encouraging charts up to the far reaches of FI at 144 with cross model agreement for an increasingly cold NW'ly flow with wintry showers in Scotland edging southwards to other northern areas by Friday. The Sub 528 line reaches the South coast on Friday in 850's lowering down to -3 to -4c. Possibly even as low as -6c if some output is to be believed. 

The synoptic set up continues to be fascinating with a robust Greenland High far enough east to prevent a pesky trough pulling up mild SW'lies at that stage. This area of high pressure serves to push the jet on a more southerly path, indeed all it will take is for one of those spin off secondary lows to slide across southern England to provide some decent snow opportunities on the 'calmer evaporative' northern edge. 

The bigger picture remains poised nicely with an arctic high ushering sub -25c 850Hpa's into the north of Scandinavia at 144. 

Before then its looking like three days of rain and gales before we enter the next colder phase.

It dawned on me this morning that all three of the snow events I've witnessed here in SE Kent this winter have all cropped up within the 48-60 hour range. I believe as a forum we are wasting a lot of effort and energy over analysing post 144 charts that clearly have little credence given the pattern we find ourselves in this winter.

Exciting times for all. 

 

Good post Steve.

The trend remains similar to previously in the medium range tonight. A cold WNW’ly with snow showers for the usual suspects, followed by low pressure making inroads through central areas with a messy rain, sleet and snow mix. 

Absolutely lots to keeps us on our toes. 

On a purely IMBY basis I wouldn’t be surprised to see some snow here on Friday, perhaps even some lying snow by Saturday morning. Sadly the convective window looks fairly small as low pressure soon moves in (which raises the snow risk further south) . 

Well looking at the models tonight. Stormy week coming up. Longer term unfortunately you can't polish a turd

I would like a short sharp hit of severe cold that includes a lowland blizzard in England. Anyone under 40 that thinks they've seen one probably hasn't. I'm talking a foot of level snow and 6 foot drifts in the Home Counties. I'm fed up with looking at these long drawn out damp spells of rain and 3C. I'm not talking 1947, 63 or '81 just a short sharp old fashioned blizzard one last time for me. Three days would do it.

I'm not asking much am I? 

Jan 82 produced one of the severest blizzards in Southern England. Jan 87 in Essex and Kent even deeper . Feb 09 often forgotten gave a foot around parts of South London and Dec 10 .

Quite luckily I remember all 4. 79 was good as well as was 91 and 83

 

I would like a short sharp hit of severe cold that includes a lowland blizzard in England. Anyone under 40 that thinks they've seen one probably hasn't. I'm talking a foot of level snow and 6 foot drifts in the Home Counties. I'm fed up with looking at these long drawn out damp spells of rain and 3C. I'm not talking 1947, 63 or '81 just a short sharp old fashioned blizzard one last time for me. Three days would do it.

I'm not asking much am I? 

We've had many snowfalls here, but I don't think we've ever hit a foot deep in my lifetime (almost 49 years) 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=313&y=100&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=1

Any meaningful cold all but disappeared from the GEFS imby. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=319&y=104&run=12&runpara=0&type=10&ext=1

Even in a normally dryish area it,s looking wet/very wet with the ground all ready saturated flooding is going to be the main weather story.

Again the GFS Op/Control and Para are milder options which has been the case over the past several runs including this mornings 00 and 06z however we still had one or two down to or even below -10c @ 850 but now there are none and the ENS mean has got much milder from 25th along with the GFS:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1

Also up to around that 25/26th period I wouldn't say there's significant scatter, there appears to be tightening consensus on it getting milder.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021011618/gfs-0-108.png?18

Classic Winter storm. Could even get a name 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2021011618/108-779.GIF?16-18  http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2021011618/108-289.GIF?16-18

Blizzards for some in the Pennines? 

 

Good post Steve.

The trend remains similar to previously in the medium range tonight. A cold WNW’ly with snow showers for the usual suspects, followed by low pressure making inroads through central areas with a messy rain, sleet and snow mix. 

Absolutely lots to keeps us on our toes. 

On a purely IMBY basis I wouldn’t be surprised to see some snow here on Friday, perhaps even some lying snow by Saturday morning. Sadly the convective window looks fairly small as low pressure soon moves in (which raises the snow risk further south) . 

I don't think much has changed in the MO today. Out to 120/144t and the  synoptics still look good for a dip in 850s thereafter. How long and how cold is then questionable.

Those who put their faith in the GFS model in FI wil probably believe it's a done deal and the Atlantic train will kick in shortly after 144 as shown in recent Op runs and ENS. There is support for this evolution in the ECM 12z Op run too so it certainly could happen. 

UKMO at 144t, JMA and some of the GFS 18z ENS retain promise for cold lovers in the medium term. Throw in the unknown effects of SSW 1 & 2 and I feel this is not over by a long shot. Time as always will tell.

 

 

We've had many snowfalls here, but I don't think we've ever hit a foot deep in my lifetime (almost 49 years) 

 

Yes, not the best 45 years to remember as a snow lover although imagine if you didn't have the 70's or 80's. !

https://durhamweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html

 

 

We've had many snowfalls here, but I don't think we've ever hit a foot deep in my lifetime (almost 49 years) 

 

Seen once imby just to the west of Cambridge. 2010 from an epic streamer. Spent the Winter of 1990 in Yorkshire (Whiston) see a foot of snow from a rain to snow event was 10 at the time and went sledging for 1st time Cambridge is flat as a pancake, was epic!!

 

Yes, not the best 45 years to remember as a snow lover although imagine if you didn't have the 70's or 80's. !

https://durhamweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html

We don't normally get much snow in Solihull, there almost seems to be a 'forcefield', round us with precipitation disappearing as fronts/showers approach and intensifying after passing over us but when we do get it it's usually good, 2013 a case in point with 4 days of lightish snow at the end of March giving over a foot with which we built an igloo big enough to get in to.

18z ENS for London:

- Time to give model watching a rest for a while me thinks..!? Better luck end of the month?? 

18z ENS for London:

- Time to give model watching a rest for a while me thinks..!? Better luck end of the month?? 

Might get a cold shot sometime in February but between now and then just wet muck. Milder day's interspersed with cooler day's but nothing noteworthy with regards to cold... accumulated rainfall totals might become noteworthy though.

 

Might get a cold shot sometime in February but between now and then just wet muck. Milder day's interspersed with cooler day's but nothing noteworthy with regards to cold... accumulated rainfall totals might become noteworthy though.

Yes as if the river levels aren't high enough already!? River Exe was/still is on the brink - we have had rain/drizzle every day since 2nd January and those precipitation spikes don't exactly cheer me up either. Furthermore - look at the wild swings in the Operational run in the ENS chart. - Goes from one extreme to another. One would look at that 18z ENS diagram and think were are in a strong positive AO and zonal flow with all the warmer air mass followed by colder and then warm again etc but we are not. Zonal winds are still in reverse and expect to stay negative for several more days. 

I would still be surprised if we don't get any cold at all - the easterly early January was not SSW related and this snow or wintry weather which occurred early hours of Sat morning was not the tropospheric response to the SSW either. We have had weakened zonal winds for a while and negative AO and NAO and we have just had a second reversal of zonal winds so I am convinced there will be a response to this because the PV would have already been displaced. Time will tell.