FAX and BBC week  ahead bringing LP up from the SW across the UK to sit off the NE of Scotland by Thu 21st with N-lies setting but lots of wet weather before then

GFS arrives at the same position though less of the LP keeps to the W of the UK en route; although the LP off Scotland on 21st intensifies for a day or two, it then fills and brings in SW-lies until Thu 28th when there's a re-run, brief N-lies and SW-lies to follow. After that there's a mobile westerly pattern with depressions and ridges of HP following on each other through to Tue 2nd.

GEFS  in S milder 20th, cooler 23rd, milder 27th, cooler 31st, Scotland somewhat similar but less marked swings and generally cooler wrt norm.  Runs fail to agree after Mon 25th and there are both cold and mild outliers throughout after that, Pptn doesn't really let up at any time exc briefly around Sat 23rd. 

ECM hangs on to the LP of the 21st for a day or two longer than does GFS but also subsides to a mobile westerly pattern by end of run

Models firming up for a coldish spell  between 22nd and 26th. North likely will get some more snow. Then after that eyes drawn to some significant warmth to our south.

Early Spanish plume perhaps. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Prove just how hard it is to forcast the weather....last night temperature forcast in Kent was +1 but reality was +5  to +6.

These are the corresponding ECM temperatures for the northern half of the British Isles at that point, a plume may be needed/welcome for defrosting purposes:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/min-temperature-6h/20210127-0000z.html 

Decent snow cover factored in there. For the south looks a warm up around the 26th and if we can tap into the anomalous warmth in Iberia could be significant. 

It is possible, but I notice that on the GEFS suite, the t2m value for London is the warmest of all 30+ members on the 26th, with a notable split on that date. There’s a lot of water to pass under the bridge (both literally and figuratively) before then.

Remarkable how all those drool charts have disappeared. Flooding now the real danger like last year, but worse as ground already saturated

Yes, it’s pretty bad here already with one lane quite badly flooded and when we went for a walk a couple of days ago there was a new waterfall with flood water pouring off the field into the lane just down from us.  The field opposite is flooded once again.

Looks like the worst of it is for the west and north; not good.

River level results from our local station tell the same story. Gandalf!

We plan to take a walk down to see the what's happening today.

https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/6073

Roger

[quote=The Beast from the East;1303092]

Remarkable how all those drool charts have disappeared. Flooding now the real danger like last year, but worse as ground already saturated

Another thing that is the same as last year is the amount of rain we’ve had with cold temps ie 5c. Very unpleasant & looking at the next 10 days, more of the same down here in SW London.......

If the sun can come out (or even if it doesn't) that will feel positively springlike. Maybe even feel like an early May day in any sunshine.

With the sun still pretty low in the sky, I doubt that it would feel like early May with any amount of sunshine. A mild or very mild day in March might be a bit nearer the mark, IMO. Temps during a mild or very mild spell in March can easily reach above 15/16C given the right conditions; March 2012 saw temperatures somewhat higher than this for a sustained spell over much of the UK.

To be honest, the end of the coming week is as far ahead as I am prepared to look ahead to at the moment. There has been so much volatility and variability in the models beyond a few days ahead for such a while now that it has been virtually impossible to have any confidence in in one solution for more than a week ahead. Also, and as was mentioned earlier, the recent SSW may not have been fully taken account of by the models yet.

This means we are looking at maybe the 4th month in 6 with over 130mm rainfall in a month...

Weve had 50mm already

I wouldn't be thinking of writing off the rest of winter when there is still 6 weeks of it to go, Kieren.

Had we had the same patten this winter that we had this time last year, i.e total atlantic domination, then I might have been more inclined to agree. However, from all that I have seen over the past month or two, there has been a great deal more volatility in FI in the models than I can ever recall being the case at any time last winter. With the recent/ongoing SSW, I reckon the amount of uncertainty increases even more.

It's worth remembering that the Beast from the East in 2018 didn't arrive until the final 2-3 days of February, and that wasn't long after we had had a brief milder and wetter spell in the middle of that month.

In the midst of discussion on isolated mid-teens temperatures at day 10 on one op run of one model, here’s the rather chilly picture at day 6 on the GFS 06z op:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_144_1.png 

For some it has been a decent winter, from an imby perspective I have seen lying snow 4 times.

For many a washout. The second warming is likely to distrupt our weather by the end of January.

According to the Met the first warming has had little to no effect on us, but the second one will.

So I'm ignoring output beyond 4 or 5 days.

Also, I agree the synoptics are different, but the end product is much the same as a zonal onslaught - just the rain is colder. We have had loads and loads of rain recently and its unrelenting and flooding has been as much a concern this "winter" as in any other. We have had significant flooding in the town in the last six weeks and it doesn't matter whether it's mild rain or cold rain, it still floods the same way!

The seasons are set by the cosmos, not by a government agency. That the Met Office says winter runs 1 Dec to 28 Feb for reasons of statistical neatness, doesn’t alter the fact that the astronomical winter runs roughly 21 Dec to 21 March. 

It's all nonsense to be honest. Why would winter be from the the shortest day to the midpoint of the suns power in the year?

Yes there is thermal lag but all assertions of seasons applying to a three month corridor are basically bollocks

The folly of picking one scenario at 9-10 days out is highlighted by the 06z and 00z GFS op runs. The first chart below is the t2m (max) chart for next Tuesday on the 00z GFS op run, the second is the equivalent chart from the 06z op run a mere 6 hours later. The conclusion is, uncertainty.