Absolutely, at this time the effects cannot be modelled yet, the effects on troposphere through the downwelling will not be felt for a few days at least, then the models will have to deal with the westerly AO moving East again.
There is just so much for the models to deal with, very unusual, so how can we trust what any model shows us pass say 5 days max?

I still think the MET longer term outlook wlil bare out in general terms.

Forget about the specifics until 24/48 hours out.

The first reversal yes  the joker in the pack is the second ssw.

Great potential so cheer up everyone!

Shouldn't rule two be that the perceived uncertainty is inversely proportional to how mild they are - the more mild, the less uncertain?

(I'll take my pedant hat off now.)

Pretty much all that needs to be said at the moment.

👍

When will the second warming or reversal of zonal flow be settled?

Here is a link regarding this second warming which the met office think will have a greater impact on our weather, probably towards the end of the month.

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/55662527

Thanks Robert - i'll take a read and will this 2nd SSW/reversal have an impact on our weather toward the end of January? We shall see. 

Meanwhile - AO and NAO still remain negative and zonal winds are still in reverse and set to stay that way for another week or so:

I still think the SSW might be lining up a googly for the end of this month, just a question of whether it can pull such a difficult ball off..

Probably better described as not cold rather than mild, as mild tends to be used for more like 10-15c daytimes

Sometimes less is more and for simplicity I like the UKMO and today’s 144hr chart looks encouraging:

I agree about the coming week - a couple of days which may reach 10c in the south.

But my understanding of the definitions is something like:

ca 2c above average - rather mild

ca 4c above - mild

>6c above - very mild

ca 2c below - rather cold

ca 4c below - cold

>6c below - very cold

Average for the northern Home Counties is around 8c in mid-January, so 14/15c would be very mild; 1/2c very cold.

GFSP leading the way tonight and potentially showing the way to colder routes 😂

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=204&run=12&lid=PARA&h=0&mv=0&tr=3

Martin

I have to be honest that as it's a BBC "might happen" I'd have a tendency to take it with a pinch of salt. Since they ditched the Met Office for their data supply their provisioning is open to review. For example, I noted 2 weeks ago in their Countryfile presentation, that the temperatures were 17C in the West Country, I don't think so! I still remain convinced ANY models really are able to define anything beyond 3 days currently..

Agreed - and quite similar to GFS.

GEFS ensemble mean at 144hrs .

I don’t think there’s any point going much further than that atm tbh

Very few of the charts being churned out look like plausible pressure patterns to be honest, just chaotic and random looking.

I would say 3 days generally accurate, 7 days trend generally accurate, after that varies from sometimes helpful for general pattern to no better than it was ten years ago in real usefulness and is usually useless.

Everything at the moment is a might happen, they do clearly explain that the second warming is likely to effect our weather more,towards the end of the month. No solid prediction, would be pointless after 3 or 4 days.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Yup. I stopped the "ensemble watch" on the 13th, when there was a sudden change in the ensembles (the previous 12 runs of the GEFS had 10 or more members with -10s, then on the 13th that dropped to 3). The fun thing is the EPS was never very keen on -10s, the "plume" charts only ever had a couple of members even while GEFS was happily churning out quite a few of them.

I guess it's not that surprising: the ECM is well-regarded for its stratospheric handling, IIRC