Incredible warmth in Spain and southern France. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=18&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=249&lid=OP&h=0&mv=1&tr=3#mapref

I suspect only Gavin remembers that one.

As Doc says, the folly of selecting one run a long way out is futile given the volatility al though I am concerned at the lack of high level blocking at the moment.

For us southerners the focus as we move to late January is on developments to the north-east

Good post doc, quite a different 6z run, all we can say is the potential for a shift to something colder through next weekend and beyond remains, the met Office theory of battleground between warm and cold is certainly more evident in the 6z

Very wise. Things progressing nicely (strat and MJO lead - overcoming ENSO influence) for something far more interesting nationwide through the last third of Jan.

Yes, a big shift in the GEFS at 180 hours already this morning on the 06z run, trending cooler again as things move around the larger atmosphere making our small part change rather significantly. As a standard quote, for detail stick within 144 hours and then trends beyond that if you follow the ensembles of all models seems to be the best way. METO interpretation of the models seems fairly on point at the moment. 
Martin

00z 13c in Exeter on 26/01

06z 12c in Exeter on 26/01

So not much change for the SW. 

My point was a general one about taking a scenario at 9 or 10 days out (from one model) at face value, and not specific to your “back yard”. Volatile in the medium to long term would best sum up the outlook beyond the coming weekend and I suspect it may be midweek before we have an idea of any likely scenario.

Highlighting the point that scanning the outer reaches of FI for a pattern change, may not be the only route to snow in the South, when the current pattern can deliver at short notice.

The SSW took place 12 days ago, the effect was MMW that has caused mayhem with the PV being displaced, split and nocked for six. What with a minor SSW due soon, there is a fair chance that it will be the total undoing of any opportunity for the PV to reassert itself.  Lots of comment on the models not varifying at just a few days let alone ten days and beyond. 

High pressure is starting to assert itself from the other side of the pole and moving into where the PV would normally be located, with a weakened PV it has practically little chance of going home anytime soon. If the high can assist in a more permanent split of the PV which is currently being shown, forcing the main Vortex out to our north east, we are in for something memorable.  

it was always the case that if the SSW was to have any long term effect on our winter, that would take between two to four weeks to transpire.

The models cannot deal with the current situation with a PV that is the basis of all that goes on in the Trop , which is chaotic at the best of times, but currently causing mayhem with any chance to predict anything with chance of confirmation beyond a few days.

My glass is definitely full.  

I did reference this the other day. 

I knew someone had, that's why I went and looked. All very similar imo.

Seeing FB awash with nostalgic pictures of snowy pasts leads to a lot of questions. Why? Apart from GW what's so different now? It seems increasingly more difficult to get it here than back then. Other places like the USA get hammered and we dont. People say it fires up the Jet Stream and destroys our chances. Did the Americans not get cold winters in the past then? Then we move onto the La Nina, El Nino, MJO, Smurf farts, and such. Did they not occur in the past also? With everything in the mix it has to come down to GW being the primary cause, whether you want to believe in it or not. I was never taken by the whole debate and dont want to turn it into one in here but IMO there is no alternative now.

The 06Z GFS run looks pretty good for Scotland, cold throughout with snow opportunities. Even down south the Lows spin into the North Sea occasionally bringing down colder air

The last slide shows a Scandy High (of sorts)

Fantasy land by then but it's still keeping my interest for now 

We're in the middle of an SSW right now (the second one in quick succession).

https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=f24&lng=eng&hem=nh

The end of the GFS 6z hold promise (doesn't it always) - but we won't see the effects of this current SSW for a while (hell, it doesn't even finish until Thursday).

Toronto is having a mild winter this year and not that cold as they normally do for Jan at -10C min to -3C average for Jan but now having many days above 0C and almost same as here tad cool temps lately.    Nothing to do with GW as when here normally get big freeze, Toronto goes mild but this time stupid LP over Norway refusing to move off so we been very unlucky to get deep cold chances.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=48656&lid=ENS&bw=1

Nuneaton ensembles : boring.  Today sun see 1 to 2 meter more sunlight entering the garden so I feel more Spring mode now and hope that come early this year.

While thankfully (as things stand) the "big" rain this week is unlikely to be an issue at my neck of the woods, but I do have three straight days of SW & S gales to look forward to. Note how the wind seems to pick up during the night.



It's going to be a long and tiresome week. And it's like I said last week, the GFS model seem to be the best at picking out this kind of thing afar and now it's pretty much nailed on.

Yes, I've never understood the logic of taking Winter as three months from from the shortest day to the Spring Equinox. If nothing else that would mean Summer started on 21 June and ran until 20 September.

Wintry weather in late November or early March can still be notable and disruptive although I accept that psychologically it may be less appealing for some when thoughts have turned to Spring.

In terms of the lag due to the surrounding sea/ocean, it's effect offsets the growing solar input such that January and the first half of February have very similar temperatures.

Exciting weather this week with plenty of wind, more rain (not so fun), a sharp cold front on Thursday and then a cold weekend with a return of frosts and wintry showers for many northern areas.

I'm really encouraged by this mornings GFS 6z at 144 hours in (Deep FI) which shows a Greenland High in place a cold trough over Scandinavia, evidence of an arctic high feeding in frigid air to the north of Scandinavia and evidence of lowering heights across Northern Italy.

Add in an ESE'ly tilt of a southerly tracking jet and the second wave of an SSW and we have the ingredients for something really quite special before the end of the month.

From a coldy perspective in the shorter term we need to see this push of cold air at the end of the week push as far south as it can. If we can clear the -5c (850 line) into the the Northern France there is every chance that the next ESE'ly runner low from the Atlantic low will enter the UK with cold air in situ. Where that low enters next weekend is up for debate but there is every chance by next Sunday some parts of the UK will be looking at another snowfall event. From a selfish point of view I would like to see this feature run along the Channel.

Hopefully we will understand more when this appears in the 120-144 range tomorrow.

Uncertainty starting to creep into the London GEFS again with one trendsetter keeping it cold almost throughout once the next few days are over.

Op is at the cold end of the spread at the end of the run with a very frigid setup just to our east. Still the models are far more interesting than the weather in real life, but at least I was able to get out for a sunny bike ride this morning. (First proper sunshine of 2021!)

The very far reaches of the 06GFS would certainly be in line with the METO video on the second warming more directly affecting us(sorry cant post chart just linked me to whole 06 GFS suite)

Of course bringing that through to real time is another matter Looking at the low pressure tracks digging further S and SE on following runs might be a guide.

Current events then seem to favour yet another disturbance to the vortex. There is a deal of interest and some very interesting links in the stratosphere thread on the other side. They are also in the Judah Cohen Twitter feed. The similarities to Winter 1928-29 are discussed there too- changes since notwithstanding. I remember reading about that one in the Robin Stirling (IIRC) Weather of Britain book.

Would be interesting to compare the ENSO profiles and the like to see what if anything they have in common. 

More interesting than last year anyway! 

As for model accuracy , been watching the ECM for a good while in isolation, and it nailed the low going to be sitting off Scotland on Thursday / Friday  at the 240 mark . It has been interesting to see its exact centre wander a few 100 miles , but that’s pretty good accuracy . The Fax seems to relate exactly to the ECM. 

We walked down to the River Witham and up to Bardney Lock - 1.5 hours return. Photos taken showed the water level to be close to the flooding of November 2019 - not far from the highest ever level recorded. That year a dyke was breached and it flooded farm land at Short Ferry, Fiskerton. This year that has not happened [yet] but the washland/flood reservoir at Branston Island is now a convincing lake.

We have Yellow alerts for rain next week, Thurs, Weds and Thurs, so it could get interesting.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-01-17&region=em&regionType=area

Water level update:

https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/6073

Roger

I thought the latest SSW had finished? It was only a smallish uptick too..