The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
17 January 2021 13:53:10

 

I knew someone had, that's why I went and looked. All very similar imo.

Seeing FB awash with nostalgic pictures of snowy pasts leads to a lot of questions. Why? Apart from GW what's so different now? It seems increasingly more difficult to get it here than back then. Other places like the USA get hammered and we dont. People say it fires up the Jet Stream and destroys our chances. Did the Americans not get cold winters in the past then? Then we move onto the La Nina, El Nino, MJO, Smurf farts, and such. Did they not occur in the past also? With everything in the mix it has to come down to GW being the primary cause, whether you want to believe in it or not. I was never taken by the whole debate and dont want to turn it into one in here but IMO there is no alternative now.

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

In very simple terms: the past lasted a long time :)

 

What I mean is, every snowy spell from the past gets lumped together into some wintry golden age, while the mild guff gets forgotten, but the reality is that snow always has been a rarity in much of lowland England. It has got rarer, for obvious reasons, although actually the past 10-12 years have been snowier in my part of the world than the previous 30. Aside from 1991, the 90s were disastrous for snow lovers round here, as were the early 2000s and indeed much of the 80s. I’m not old enough to remember the 70s but they had largely uninspiring winters too, 78/79 aside. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

UncleAlbert
17 January 2021 13:53:20

 

I suspect only Gavin remembers that one.

As Doc says, the folly of selecting one run a long way out is futile given the volatility al though I am concerned at the lack of high level blocking at the moment.

For us southerners the focus as we move to late January is on developments to the north-east

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

 

Two points from the discussions today.

With regards to the post about the lack of Northern blocking going forward, I notice that a large cluster of GFS members give the hint that the MJO may head through COD into the more favourable territory of Phase 7 towards the end of the run. There has been no help from this direction thus far.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.

Secondly and separately it has been mentioned that the MO in their podcast stated that SSW1 will have little effect. Have not listened to it but shtmlone post said 'no effect on us' and a previous post said no effect period. With respect to the bigger picture there is not a great deal about the 10 day models that looks like normal January synoptics with a southerly and slackish jet and a disrupted vortex. Looking at the UK this may bring copious amounts of precipitation. Can't be certain that this is an effect but is it not probably a factor? I say this because we can easily perceive that just because it does not bring the appropriate blocking and cold to our neck of the woods, it has not been a major player.

 

 

nsrobins
17 January 2021 14:15:35

 

Yes, I've never understood the logic of taking Winter as three months from from the shortest day to the Spring Equinox. If nothing else that would mean Summer started on 21 June and ran until 20 September.

Wintry weather in late November or early March can still be notable and disruptive although I accept that psychologically it may be less appealing for some when thoughts have turned to Spring.

In terms of the lag due to the surrounding sea/ocean, it's effect offsets the growing solar input such that January and the first half of February have very similar temperatures.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I’ve never understood the controversy. Astronomical seasons are defined by the solstices and equinoxes. These vary in length by a few days. For data and records you need equal periods hence the fixed three month quarters.

The ‘season’ however is subjective to a certain extent. For instance IMO ‘Autumn’ these days runs from August to July 😉

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

ballamar
17 January 2021 14:19:25
Still all to play for depends on the warm air interaction with the Scandi low. Less warm air into the low changes the intensity and stops it spinning further north. Interesting how it plays out,could look very different to what is modelled in 96 hours
Schnow in Peace
17 January 2021 14:33:08

Still all to play for depends on the warm air interaction with the Scandi low. Less warm air into the low changes the intensity and stops it spinning further north. Interesting how it plays out,could look very different to what is modelled in 96 hours

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Very good point

Talk on met.ie of the Wednesday rain here turning to sleet/snow and maxes only 2 to 4 degrees over most of the country. 

tallyho_83
17 January 2021 14:47:00

 

The SSW took place 12 days ago, the effect was MMW that has caused mayhem with the PV being displaced, split and nocked for six. 

Originally Posted by: Phil24 

Sorry I am confused MMW and nocked for six?

 

Please explain?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Surrey John
17 January 2021 14:57:10

 

Sorry I am confused MMW and nocked for six?

 

Please explain?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Nocked is process of fitting an arrow to a bowstring, you are not alone in trying to understand the connection to a weather model, maybe it means goes fast in six directions 

 

 

 

Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire

35m ASL

Snow Hoper
17 January 2021 14:59:21

Exciting weather this week with plenty of wind, more rain (not so fun), a sharp cold front on Thursday and then a cold weekend with a return of frosts and wintry showers for many northern areas.

I'm really encouraged by this mornings GFS 6z at 144 hours in (Deep FI) which shows a Greenland High in place a cold trough over Scandinavia, evidence of an arctic high feeding in frigid air to the north of Scandinavia and evidence of lowering heights across Northern Italy.

Add in an ESE'ly tilt of a southerly tracking jet and the second wave of an SSW and we have the ingredients for something really quite special before the end of the month.

From a coldy perspective in the shorter term we need to see this push of cold air at the end of the week push as far south as it can. If we can clear the -5c (850 line) into the the Northern France there is every chance that the next ESE'ly runner low from the Atlantic low will enter the UK with cold air in situ. Where that low enters next weekend is up for debate but there is every chance by next Sunday some parts of the UK will be looking at another snowfall event. From a selfish point of view I would like to see this feature run along the Channel.

Hopefully we will understand more when this appears in the 120-144 range tomorrow.

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

 

I think adopting this approach during these chaotic times is probably best. Although keeping one eye open on the beyond section, its pointless giving it any credence because, as Doc pointed out, a forecast, just 6 hrs later, had changed completely. 

Although I could be wrong, the 2 recent snowfalls were originally ensemble bumps in the road that got ironed out nearer the time. The next one looks like happening but the 2nd, more pronounced one, looks like it might be flattering already. (Just the one eye as I said watching that one).

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Retron
17 January 2021 15:01:32

 

I thought the latest SSW had finished? It was only a smallish uptick too..

Originally Posted by: SnowyHythe(Kent) 

Nope, I even included the link in my post!

Here it is again...

We're in the middle of an SSW right now (the second one in quick succession).

https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=f24&lng=eng&hem=nh

The end of the GFS 6z hold promise (doesn't it always) - but we won't see the effects of this current SSW for a while (hell, it doesn't even finish until Thursday).

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The rest of the charts (showing that yes, we're in a major SSW at the moment) are here:

https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?alert=1&lng=eng&hem=nh

 

Leysdown, north Kent
JRobinson
17 January 2021 15:01:37

 

Sorry I am confused MMW and nocked for six?

 

Please explain?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

“Knocked for six” is a phrase used to mean something has happened to cause total confusion.

 

as far as MMW goes.... I’ll let the experts explain

Matty H
17 January 2021 15:11:34

https://twitter.com/petagna/status/1350799638870290433?s=21

 


 

We're in the middle of an SSW right now (the second one in quick succession).

https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=f24&lng=eng&hem=nh

The end of the GFS 6z hold promise (doesn't it always) - but we won't see the effects of this current SSW for a while (hell, it doesn't even finish until Thursday).

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Snow Hoper
17 January 2021 15:13:28

https://twitter.com/petagna/status/1350799638870290433?s=21

 

 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Don't have Twitter so cant read it, anyone care to recap?

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

DPower
17 January 2021 15:14:54

The 06z certainly looks more amplified across the Arctic compared with previous runs with stronger wave from the Pacific entering the Arctic. if this trend continues I would not be surprised if this afternoons runs make more of the ridge in the Atlantic from t96 perhaps allowing colder uppers to descend from a more amplified Arctic. lots to keep an eye on that's for sure.

Matty H
17 January 2021 15:15:18
He says

The latest round of mini warming in the stratosphere seems to be ending now and the #SPV stratospheric polar vortex looks set to recover a little in the weeks ahead

However, further mini warming and SPV weakening episodes can't be ruled out

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Snow Hoper
17 January 2021 15:16:46

He says

The latest round of mini warming in the stratosphere seems to be ending now and the #SPV stratospheric polar vortex looks set to recover a little in the weeks ahead

However, further mini warming and SPV weakening episodes can't be ruled out

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Thanks👍

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

sunny coast
17 January 2021 15:20:14

 

In very simple terms: the past lasted a long time :)

 

What I mean is, every snowy spell from the past gets lumped together into some wintry golden age, while the mild guff gets forgotten, but the reality is that snow always has been a rarity in much of lowland England. It has got rarer, for obvious reasons, although actually the past 10-12 years have been snowier in my part of the world than the previous 30. Aside from 1991, the 90s were disastrous for snow lovers round here, as were the early 2000s and indeed much of the 80s. I’m not old enough to remember the 70s but they had largely uninspiring winters too, 78/79 aside. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

indeed   true . When you read some Facebook forums people talk about memories of the snowy winters  of the 70s !  Well after Christmas 1970 which was snowy the next spell of anything significant was feb 78  a cold spell with snow showers mainly in the east and culminating in the Great South West blizzard  then 79 which was a severe one but  especially north of the M4 . That apart the 70s were poor snow wise 

sunny coast
17 January 2021 15:23:25

 

In very simple terms: the past lasted a long time :)

 

What I mean is, every snowy spell from the past gets lumped together into some wintry golden age, while the mild guff gets forgotten, but the reality is that snow always has been a rarity in much of lowland England. It has got rarer, for obvious reasons, although actually the past 10-12 years have been snowier in my part of the world than the previous 30. Aside from 1991, the 90s were disastrous for snow lovers round here, as were the early 2000s and indeed much of the 80s. I’m not old enough to remember the 70s but they had largely uninspiring winters too, 78/79 aside. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

indeed   true . When you read some Facebook forums people talk about memories of the snowy winters  of the 70s !  Well after Christmas 1970 which was snowy the next spell of anything significant was feb 78  a cold spell with snow showers mainly in the east and culminating in the Great South West blizzard  then 79 which was a severe one but  especially north of the M4 . That apart the 70s were poor snow wise 

SnowyHythe(Kent)
17 January 2021 15:37:14

 

Nope, I even included the link in my post!

Here it is again...

 

The rest of the charts (showing that yes, we're in a major SSW at the moment) are here:

https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?alert=1&lng=eng&hem=nh

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Sorry, by the looks of this chart it looked liked it had started to plateau..

https://twitter.com/petagna/status/1350799638870290433?s=21

EDIT: I see this has already been posted. 

 

 

 

Rob K
17 January 2021 16:05:39

The 12Z GFS is looking rather snowy indeed for the Scottish members... perhaps even the Edinburgh contingent, model resolution permitting. I won't mention Ab*rd**n though.

 

 

 

Further south some very high rainfall totals especially over Wales and NW England. Even down here looks like another inch and a half this week, entering full rivers.

 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

fairweather
17 January 2021 16:11:45

indeed   true . When you read some Facebook forums people talk about memories of the snowy winters  of the 70s !  Well after Christmas 1970 which was snowy the next spell of anything significant was feb 78  a cold spell with snow showers mainly in the east and culminating in the Great South West blizzard  then 79 which was a severe one but  especially north of the M4 . That apart the 70s were poor snow wise 

Originally Posted by: sunny coast 

The seventies were similar to the last decade which was the best for 30 years. I get fed up with people who weren't there (not saying you) in complete denial of what people who were there say about the 50's, 60's. 70's 80's.  Climatically  we look at 30 year blocks. The last 30 years have had way less snow and severe cold than the previous 30.  Back then most years it snowed (but not every year) and a spell like the one we've just had wouldn't even have been recorded. It was so run of the mill(so far). Somebody on here said it was their best winter for ten years - damned by faint praise! It is true that the 70's weren't great. But even then 69-70 had a lot of snow and 70-71 was a White Christmas in London. 76-79 was exceptionally snowy and cold, far more so than 2009-2010 was in the S.E which was a once in 30 year event. These events weren't annual then, just every 10 years or so but in between there was a lot more snow. East Anglia and Kent has had orders of magnitude less snow showers than in the previous 30 years. Scotland had a thriving skiing industry.

I've posted this factual and respected link more times than I care to but I get the impression that people just don't want to read it because it won't confirm their views:-

https://durhamweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html

http://www.laindonweather.co.uk/Snow%20page.htm

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gusty
17 January 2021 16:18:02

A very deep area of low pressure on Thursday with a central core in the 960's.

850Hpa's will not need to be too low to get snow to fairly low levels with this one.

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Whiteout
17 January 2021 16:21:32

Fabled Channel Low potential next weekend too 👍

Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

Rob K
17 January 2021 16:22:40

 

I've posted this factual and respected link more times than I care to but I get the impression that people just don't want to read it because it won't confirm their views:-

https://durhamweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html

 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

 

That link backs up what others have said about the 70s (including Trevor Harley who seems to know his stuff). The 70s were a pretty poor decade for snowy winters, with the exception of two good winters at the end.

I do think some of the older winters there have been given a higher grade than the stats suggest, eg some of the older years which saw only relatively small amounts in two months of the year are given "Average" while more recent years with similar amounts but in four months are classed as "Little"...

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gusty
17 January 2021 16:24:47

That secondary low is still be modelled in FI again. 850Hpa's have made to the south coast. Somewhere is in for a snow event if this continues. Midlands Wales, Midlands, East Anglia assuming it takes an ESE'ly track. 

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Rob K
17 January 2021 16:34:04

That secondary low is still be modelled in FI again. 850Hpa's have made to the south coast. Somewhere is in for a snow event if this continues. Midlands Wales, Midlands, East Anglia assuming it takes an ESE'ly track. 

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Yes looks potentially interesting... GFS has snow across the south but nothing settling is modelled so very marginal stuff.

Further down the line an interesting height rise to the north around 240 hours could well pull in an easterly?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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