Agreed as it been very wet regardless zonal or not but only way out is to get this horrible winter done early and hopefully drier warmer Spring and very dry summer to make up for it which stand a better chance since unwelcome Greenland HP on the models had been there since Dec will not last to summer.

Im not an expert in meteorology but I can definitely say this period of weather has not been anything like zonal. 
im sure someone here can give us a correct definition of the term.

If the GEFS is the trendsetter though then that is as mild as it gets. The 0C isotherm should rapidly head south again from that point onwards (and may never get that far north anyway, with all the scatter).

Especially TLAs.

By the way, was there an answer to what QTR stood for?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069 

Quick Tropospheric Response

P8 is a cold outlier early on, it somehow picks up a blob of very cold air in that satellite low  to the north and spins it right across the UK 

Not very likely I would say!

Quite Tired of Rain, in my case.

I am not an academic expert but I understand that the best analogy is with radio frequency. The longer the wavelength the flatter (more zonal) the flow. The shorter the wavelength the more amplified (meridional) the flow. The meridional flow shows greater oscilation. We never see perfect versions of either as there is always some oscilation and there is always some zonal fluidity. The best way to ascertain the presence of one or the other is at the 500mb height where you can see the main flow of the atmosphere that drives the weather systems.  The flow will follow the contours in similar fashion to SLP charts. Those more learned with me are welcome to add or correct.

GFS Para delivers snowmaggeddon deep into FI - with PV displaced to Denmark - this set up would top trump 1987 - obviously JFF eye candy. , but otherwise - business as usual...

Some colossal rainfall totals over the next 10 days especially for northern England.  Limited snow opportunities away from northern hills. In fact its mainly mild in the south.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 copious rain for the next two weeks, not just the amber warning for the north on Wednesday; and the Siberian cold has wimped out.

GFS = LPs moving across from the Atlantic, particularly deep 960mb NE Scotland Fri 22nd with a brief spell of N-lies to follow; then back to the Atlantic conveyor throughout (the most S-ly of these LPs runs across the UK Fri 29th 985 mb NI).

FAX shows LP this week a day earlier i.e. Thu and deeper 950mb with lots of frontal rain preceding it.

GEFS - mild now (near norm in Scotland), cool Thu 21st to  Tue 26th with good agreement. Thereafter a suggestion of mild at first and cooler later but much variability in different runs. Rain throughout -yesterday's forecast dry slot ca  Sat 23rd has been squeezed out at least for the S.

ECM - similar to GFS at first but inclined to keep N-ly flow for longer after Fri 22nd, perhaps as long as Wed 27th

Morning, I think that’s a tad pessimistic, I think snow will get down to lower levels this weekend in the north and showers may be driven well inland with a westerly vector to the wind. A snapshot from GFS shows this quite well. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_120_1.png

That would be a cracking position to be in at the start of February for sure. Pressure rising to the North pulling in deep cold from the continent. Lovely. 

Maybe a brief 48h window for low level snow in the north. But the real story sadly will be flooding looks horrendous. 

Which 48hr period are you thinking of?

Look at that lovely warmth over Iberia.  Ecm gets close to bringing it our way by day 10 would be some very mild temps if we can tap into it

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=1&tr=24#mapref

ECM has a 48h window just about over the weekend.  For the north of England.  

144h seems to be about the peak of cold looks wet for the south though.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=1&tr=24#mapref

Indeed and there are a number of snow opportunities after that too.

Snow for northern hills normally means high peaks in England and more modest hills in Scotland but the opportunities are much more than that.

https://wxcharts.com/charts/ecmwf/eng/charts/snowdepth_20210118_00_096.jpg?

https://wxcharts.com/charts/ecmwf/eng/charts/snowdepth_20210118_00_192.jpg?

https://wxcharts.com/charts/ecmwf/eng/charts/snowdepth_20210118_00_240.jpg?

Not a fan of these snow charts but posting them to show potential and interest. 

Sorry, I hadn’t realised you were excluding Scotland when you said “the north”.

Just realised I literally did do that with my ECM charts posted above

They do look very good for Scotland though.

Dont worry, it stops me from having to look at charts showing rain here and snow just outside our permitted area of travel 

Overall the outlook could be summed up as unsettled but with temperatures a bit more uncertain. Milder to the south and cooler to the north, but by how much is unclear and open to change.

Thought it'd probably be worth posting the London GFS ens, which show it being mainly on the chilly side of average over the next 9-10 days, just in case any other comments confused the matter.

Post 26th a good possibility we'll experience some much milder weather down here, with temps hitting 10-11c on the corresponding T2M plots, probably for 24-48 hours although could be a touch longer I guess. Slim chance though it stays colder and temps struggle to average at best.

Longer term and there's the expected plenty of scatter but a reasonable chunk of said scatter is on the colder side of average, suggesting there will be an ongoing chance of cold weather re-establishing in the south into February.

Taking the ens further North shows a similar picture albeit more chance of snow throughout and temps more likely to remain a touch lower than average throughout, particularly for Scotland.  

Just looking at the GFS Op and as you'd expect given the setup, Wales North shows the most likely position of any snow, with snowfall shown from mid afternoon Wednesday for parts of Scotland, more widely in Northern England and again parts of Scotland during Thursday along with parts of Wales and a wintry shower risk continuing through in to Sunday with a band of mostly snow moving down through the Midlands. Thereafter Tuesday 26th Jan shows a band of rain turning readily to snow at least for a time from the Midlands North and a similar repeat occurrence on Thursday 28th, Scotland tending to remain on the snow side (at least for higher ground and away from some of the coastal fringes) throughout. No it won't verify exactly like that but that shows snow chances for over a week and not just restricted to Scottish mountains or the highest ground of Northern England. 

ECM shows a broadly similar picture. The Op was towards the top of the milder options around the 25th Jan so may be being a little too enthusiastic with the HP build to the south at that time and consequently the extent of the milder air dragged towards the South. It's not an outlier though so some support for that evolution.

TBH if you'd stripped out the colder ens, particularly when they became the minority option last week you'd have said the pattern would have looked very similar to the London end up to the 26th of Jan, with the uncertainty post that period greater. So other than firming up on a possible couple of day window for quite mild weather down here 27th Jan (ish) the consistency in the models hasn't been too bad IMO. Certainly what's being shown as likely now was what I thought was likely from the middle part of last week

No it's not a prolonged deep cold spell and yes the south is likely to see mostly cold rain but it's not a mild pattern for the most part and snow chances are there for quite a few areas for quite a bit of the time. It also wouldn't surprise me if some of the Midlands saw at least temporary snow and other places in the south a few flakes. Not great of course but it is what it is and consistent with what's been shown by the ens for a while now.

To look on the bright side, it is an ill wind which blows nobody any good. Massive disappointment for cold weather fans that charts at 10 days out did not materialise as had been hoped. Given the recent SSW we were giving undue credence to stellar charts which then failed to come to fruition, with the projected Greenie HP failing to be robust enough or far enough east to deliver wintery nirvana.

However, the bright side? We are in the middle of a nasty pandemic with a mass rollout of vaccine and we don't want that disrupted if at all possible, so the silver lining of a lack of deep snow and bitter winds, is that the vaccine rollout won't be disrupted by a severe wintery outbreak.