The big mild blip around day 7 now gone on the 06z > interesting around 192 the pressure heads somewhat NW towards iceland ( its weak ) but allows for the jet to start sliding ESE > always a winner...

Yes, but being a little pedantic, a cold spell in March, as was the Beast from the East was not meteorological winter. It was a cold start to spring. If there's nothing of note in February, then that is winter over. Of course we can get cold spells in spring and we usually do. In fact I've seen more cold in March than in any of the winter months in the last few years, but that doesn't mean its winter. It's a cold spring. Pedantic I know, but that's my view.

Also, I agree the synoptics are different, but the end product is much the same as a zonal onslaught - just the rain is colder. We have had loads and loads of rain recently and its unrelenting and flooding has been as much a concern this "winter" as in any other. We have had significant flooding in the town in the last six weeks and it doesn't matter whether it's mild rain or cold rain, it still floods the same way!

The seasons are set by the cosmos, not by a government agency. That the Met Office says winter runs 1 Dec to 28 Feb for reasons of statistical neatness, doesn’t alter the fact that the astronomical winter runs roughly 21 Dec to 21 March. 

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The seasons are set by the cosmos, not by a government agency. That the Met Office says winter runs 1 Dec to 28 Feb for reasons of statistical neatness, doesn’t alter the fact that the astronomical winter runs roughly 21 Dec to 21 March. 

It's all nonsense to be honest. Why would winter be from the the shortest day to the midpoint of the suns power in the year?

Yes there is thermal lag but all assertions of seasons applying to a three month corridor are basically bollocks

The Para doesn't appear to running on Meteociel. Also, it's very reminiscent of 1929. Battleground between mild and cold with the mild sectors being thrown up over the south on many occasions. Didnt stop proper cold visiting in Feb.

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The folly of picking one scenario at 9-10 days out is highlighted by the 06z and 00z GFS op runs. The first chart below is the t2m (max) chart for next Tuesday on the 00z GFS op run, the second is the equivalent chart from the 06z op run a mere 6 hours later. The conclusion is, uncertainty.

 

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Incredible warmth in Spain and southern France. 

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=18&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=249&lid=OP&h=0&mv=1&tr=3#mapref

 

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The Para doesn't appear to running on Meteociel. Also, it's very reminiscent of 1929. Battleground between mild and cold with the mild sectors being thrown up over the south on many occasions. Didnt stop proper cold visiting in Feb.

I suspect only Gavin remembers that one.

As Doc says, the folly of selecting one run a long way out is futile given the volatility al though I am concerned at the lack of high level blocking at the moment.

For us southerners the focus as we move to late January is on developments to the north-east

The folly of picking one scenario at 9-10 days out is highlighted by the 06z and 00z GFS op runs. The first chart below is the t2m (max) chart for next Tuesday on the 00z GFS op run, the second is the equivalent chart from the 06z op run a mere 6 hours later. The conclusion is, uncertainty.

 

Good post doc, quite a different 6z run, all we can say is the potential for a shift to something colder through next weekend and beyond remains, the met Office theory of battleground between warm and cold is certainly more evident in the 6z

For some it has been a decent winter, from an imby perspective I have seen lying snow 4 times.

For many a washout. The second warming is likely to distrupt our weather by the end of January.

According to the Met the first warming has had little to no effect on us, but the second one will.

So I'm ignoring output beyond 4 or 5 days.

Very wise. Things progressing nicely (strat and MJO lead - overcoming ENSO influence) for something far more interesting nationwide through the last third of Jan.

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Good post doc, quite a different 6z run, all we can say is the potential for a shift to something colder through next weekend and beyond remains, the met Office theory of battleground between warm and cold is certainly more evident in the 6z

Yes, a big shift in the GEFS at 180 hours already this morning on the 06z run, trending cooler again as things move around the larger atmosphere making our small part change rather significantly. As a standard quote, for detail stick within 144 hours and then trends beyond that if you follow the ensembles of all models seems to be the best way. METO interpretation of the models seems fairly on point at the moment. 
Martin

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The folly of picking one scenario at 9-10 days out is highlighted by the 06z and 00z GFS op runs. The first chart below is the t2m (max) chart for next Tuesday on the 00z GFS op run, the second is the equivalent chart from the 06z op run a mere 6 hours later. The conclusion is, uncertainty.

 

00z 13c in Exeter on 26/01

06z 12c in Exeter on 26/01

So not much change for the SW. 

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Can we go back to regional threads to discuss regional issues? All the ‘in my back yard’ stuff tends to clog up the discussion a bit.

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Incredible warmth in Spain and southern France. 

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=18&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=249&lid=OP&h=0&mv=1&tr=3#mapref

 

That will melt the snow almost as fast as yesterday's snowmelt in Berkhamsted lol

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00z 13c in Exeter on 26/01

06z 12c in Exeter on 26/01

So not much change for the SW. 

My point was a general one about taking a scenario at 9 or 10 days out (from one model) at face value, and not specific to your “back yard”. Volatile in the medium to long term would best sum up the outlook beyond the coming weekend and I suspect it may be midweek before we have an idea of any likely scenario.

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The 06z showing what can happen at relatively short notice (although this was picked up at +t300), with a Southerly tracking low spinning up and traversing East into Europe, pulling down quite cold 850's in its wake.

Highlighting the point that scanning the outer reaches of FI for a pattern change, may not be the only route to snow in the South, when the current pattern can deliver at short notice.

 

I wouldn't be thinking of writing off the rest of winter when there is still 6 weeks of it to go, Kieren.

Had we had the same patten this winter that we had this time last year, i.e total atlantic domination, then I might have been more inclined to agree. However, from all that I have seen over the past month or two, there has been a great deal more volatility in FI in the models than I can ever recall being the case at any time last winter. With the recent/ongoing SSW, I reckon the amount of uncertainty increases even more.

It's worth remembering that the Beast from the East in 2018 didn't arrive until the final 2-3 days of February, and that wasn't long after we had had a brief milder and wetter spell in the middle of that month.

The SSW took place 12 days ago, the effect was MMW that has caused mayhem with the PV being displaced, split and nocked for six. What with a minor SSW due soon, there is a fair chance that it will be the total undoing of any opportunity for the PV to reassert itself.  Lots of comment on the models not varifying at just a few days let alone ten days and beyond. 

High pressure is starting to assert itself from the other side of the pole and moving into where the PV would normally be located, with a weakened PV it has practically little chance of going home anytime soon. If the high can assist in a more permanent split of the PV which is currently being shown, forcing the main Vortex out to our north east, we are in for something memorable.  

it was always the case that if the SSW was to have any long term effect on our winter, that would take between two to four weeks to transpire.

 

The models cannot deal with the current situation with a PV that is the basis of all that goes on in the Trop , which is chaotic at the best of times, but currently causing mayhem with any chance to predict anything with chance of confirmation beyond a few days.

My glass is definitely full.  

The Para doesn't appear to running on Meteociel. Also, it's very reminiscent of 1929. Battleground between mild and cold with the mild sectors being thrown up over the south on many occasions. Didnt stop proper cold visiting in Feb.

 

I did reference this the other day. 

 

00z 13c in Exeter on 26/01

06z 12c in Exeter on 26/01

So not much change for the SW. 

.......because you're worth it 

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I did reference this the other day. 

I knew someone had, that's why I went and looked. All very similar imo.

Seeing FB awash with nostalgic pictures of snowy pasts leads to a lot of questions. Why? Apart from GW what's so different now? It seems increasingly more difficult to get it here than back then. Other places like the USA get hammered and we dont. People say it fires up the Jet Stream and destroys our chances. Did the Americans not get cold winters in the past then? Then we move onto the La Nina, El Nino, MJO, Smurf farts, and such. Did they not occur in the past also? With everything in the mix it has to come down to GW being the primary cause, whether you want to believe in it or not. I was never taken by the whole debate and dont want to turn it into one in here but IMO there is no alternative now.

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The 06Z GFS run looks pretty good for Scotland, cold throughout with snow opportunities. Even down south the Lows spin into the North Sea occasionally bringing down colder air

The last slide shows a Scandy High (of sorts)

Fantasy land by then but it's still keeping my interest for now 

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