Much better 12s so far GFS is settled and warm from 96h to 240h temps in the high 20s in the SE. 

GEM upto 168h similar.

Not sure I'd be quite as complimentary of the 12z GFS as that albeit it's pretty good I'd agree - The London 2m temps show temps in the low 20's hitting mid 20's for a day or 2 before falling back. Even if you add 2c to that you're still looking at temps in the mid 20s at best, small blip aside.

The Op rainfall line (again for London) has small amounts of rain 31/07, 01/08, 02/08 and straddling 04 & 05/08 - there's a small cluster of members showing similarly minor rainfall spikes/gentle humps. The corresponding charts suggest down South most of the rain will be from showers as LP gets close enough to destabilise things for a time, with more frontal rain further North.

So average to a touch above for the time of year down here in the South East, with small amounts of rain around but unlikely to be enough to ruin any of the days - pretty decent but I'd say you're adding a slight rose tinted slant to things

(Just looking at the ens for Plymouth and the temps are a touch lower for the most part but with less rainfall shown suggesting HP will be a touch more dominant here). 

TBH if you like daft levels of heat the fact the pattern isn't entirely settled isn't a bad thing, as the current week shows - get a deep enough LP stalling to our West and the heat from the continent is drawn up over us seemingly without any trouble at all. I wouldn't be surprised if in a few days a few hot outliers creep back in the ens, albeit I'll hope the current ens are correct with mostly dry and warm without being hot

 

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Not sure I'd be quite as complimentary of the 12z GFS as that albeit it's pretty good I'd agree - The London 2m temps show temps in the low 20's hitting mid 20's for a day or 2 before falling back. Even if you add 2c to that you're still looking at temps in the mid 20s at best, small blip aside.

The Op rainfall line (again for London) has small amounts of rain 31/07, 01/08, 02/08 and straddling 04 & 05/08 - there's a small cluster of members showing similarly minor rainfall spikes/gentle humps. The corresponding charts suggest down South most of the rain will be from showers as LP gets close enough to destabilise things for a time, with more frontal rain further North.

So average to a touch above for the time of year down here in the South East, with small amounts of rain around but unlikely to be enough to ruin any of the days - pretty decent but I'd say you're adding a slight rose tinted slant to things

(Just looking at the ens for Plymouth and the temps are a touch lower for the most part but with less rainfall shown suggesting HP will be a touch more dominant here). 

TBH if you like daft levels of heat the fact the pattern isn't entirely settled isn't a bad thing, as the current week shows - get a deep enough LP stalling to our West and the heat from the continent is drawn up over us seemingly without any trouble at all. I wouldn't be surprised if in a few days a few hot outliers creep back in the ens, albeit I'll hope the current ens are correct with mostly dry and warm without being hot

 

 

Sure your looking at the latest 12z GFS , temps from Wednesday onwards in London 25c, 27c, 23, 26c, 28c, 28c,  and you can normally add a couple of degrees at least. Don't look at the graph temps are never correct have a look at the 2m temp maps.

 

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Looks much better here Dave 12Z set for London

You have your wish with that set

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

 

 

Not sure I'd be quite as complimentary of the 12z GFS as that albeit it's pretty good I'd agree - The London 2m temps show temps in the low 20's hitting mid 20's for a day or 2 before falling back. Even if you add 2c to that you're still looking at temps in the mid 20s at best, small blip aside.

The Op rainfall line (again for London) has small amounts of rain 31/07, 01/08, 02/08 and straddling 04 & 05/08 - there's a small cluster of members showing similarly minor rainfall spikes/gentle humps. The corresponding charts suggest down South most of the rain will be from showers as LP gets close enough to destabilise things for a time, with more frontal rain further North.

So average to a touch above for the time of year down here in the South East, with small amounts of rain around but unlikely to be enough to ruin any of the days - pretty decent but I'd say you're adding a slight rose tinted slant to things

(Just looking at the ens for Plymouth and the temps are a touch lower for the most part but with less rainfall shown suggesting HP will be a touch more dominant here). 

TBH if you like daft levels of heat the fact the pattern isn't entirely settled isn't a bad thing, as the current week shows - get a deep enough LP stalling to our West and the heat from the continent is drawn up over us seemingly without any trouble at all. I wouldn't be surprised if in a few days a few hot outliers creep back in the ens, albeit I'll hope the current ens are correct with mostly dry and warm without being hot

 

Sometimes a bit warmer with HP, sometimes a bit cooler with LP and (probably showery) rain on both ECM and GFS, but it looks like the sort of unstable situation where new developments appear unexpectedly so I predict a week of chart watching.

GEFS places more rain in the NW from a quick skim of locations.

The most persistent and remarkable feature is the  extensive area of well below average temo in Russia, which has been there for a couple of weeks and looks like continuing http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4. If only Richard was on holiday there so we could have a graphic description in the moaning thread!

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Sometimes a bit warmer with HP, sometimes a bit cooler with LP and (probably showery) rain on both ECM and GFS, but it looks like the sort of unstable situation where new developments appear unexpectedly so I predict a week of chart watching.

GEFS places more rain in the NW from a quick skim of locations.

The most persistent and remarkable feature is the  extensive area of well below average temo in Russia, which has been there for a couple of weeks and looks like continuing http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.  If only Richard was on holiday there so we could have a graphic description in the moaning thread!

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Sure your looking at the latest 12z GFS , temps from Wednesday onwards in London 25c, 27c, 23, 26c, 28c, 28c,  and you can normally add a couple of degrees at least. Don't look at the graph temps are never correct have a look at the 2m temp maps.

 

Was going by Brians T2m temps - not sure if whatever you were looking at is for a slightly different gridpoint, might explain the differences

There definitely wasn't a large run of temps over the 23c mark, other than a 1-2 day blip where it nudged over 25c, up to 27c or so. (I can see Polar's link has more 25c + members showing but overall it's in line with what I was saying?). Not wildly different I guess but I prefer my view on Brians T2M temps as 23c is about the top end of my comfortable range

More of the same this morning from what I can see although more rainfall spikes around suggesting pleasant temps with a bit of rain around down here (in the mid term). Short term and both GFS and ECM have an interesting little feature for Tuesday - more so for the west than here in terms of rain but we seem to get the breeziest conditions.

 

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Models seem to be all over the place at the moment wrt developments after next weekend. There seems to bo some reasonable agreement of at least a temporary period of more settled weather, courtesy of a ridge extending down from the north, towards the end of the coming week and once the LP over England has moved away to the east. Beyond that, it all seems to be up in the air.

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Was going by Brians T2m temps - not sure if whatever you were looking at is for a slightly different gridpoint, might explain the differences

There definitely wasn't a large run of temps over the 23c mark, other than a 1-2 day blip where it nudged over 25c, up to 27c or so. (I can see Polar's link has more 25c + members showing but overall it's in line with what I was saying?). Not wildly different I guess but I prefer my view on Brians T2M temps as 23c is about the top end of my comfortable range

More of the same this morning from what I can see although more rainfall spikes around suggesting pleasant temps with a bit of rain around down here (in the mid term). Short term and both GFS and ECM have an interesting little feature for Tuesday - more so for the west than here in terms of rain but we seem to get the breeziest conditions.

 

I look at the Wetterzentrale site the 12z GFS is still there 

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Was going by Brians T2m temps - not sure if whatever you were looking at is for a slightly different gridpoint, might explain the differences

 

Yesterday's GFS 12z is still available here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=0&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

I wasn't around much yesterday afternoon but there were no data issues as far as I am aware. Therefore the 2m temp plots should all be correct. 

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Quite a wet week ahead for many parts of England and Wales, though perhaps getting a little dryer towards next weekend. Reasonable temperatures however in any sunshine, some thundery showers about. Further out is....... anyone’s guess

Sometimes a bit warmer with HP, sometimes a bit cooler with LP and (probably showery) rain on both ECM and GFS, but it looks like the sort of unstable situation where new developments appear unexpectedly so I predict a week of chart watching.

Same comment again on synoptics this morning but the LP seems to be gaining the upper hand over the warmth. GEFS shows temps generally a little below average and the 10-day outlook is quite wet for England in week 2

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The models are showing poor output for August, I hope its only a blip. ECM 12z I notice has strong Northern blocking early on and by 240 hrs its definitely weakened. So hopefully you would think heights should start rising around us again?

An interesting spread starts to develop in the 12z ensembles after 9th

Could be a major pattern change ahead. Likelihood of a cool, wet end to summer has increased further today.
Not too long before the ‘autumnal’ word creeps out from under the toilet seat.

The models are showing poor output for August, I hope its only a blip. ECM 12z I notice has strong Northern blocking early on and by 240 hrs its definitely weakened. So hopefully you would think heights should start rising around us again?

We need to get rid of that northern blocking IMO if we are going to have any realistic chance of a decent August. There has been a tendency during this summer so far for pressure to be on the relatively high side for much of the time around Greenland, meaning that the more settled spells we have had, especially last week, have been transient rather than long-lasting affairs in many areas.

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We need to get rid of that northern blocking IMO if we are going to have any realistic chance of a decent August. There has been a tendency during this summer so far for pressure to be on the relatively high side for much of the time around Greenland, meaning that the more settled spells we have had, especially last week, have been transient rather than long-lasting affairs in many areas.

its ok David, that northern blocking will melt away come November- only to amazingly return by next April😉

I have a feeling the longer outlook isn’t too good going into August, we need an ex-hurricane or two to reset the North Atlantic 

 

its ok David, that northern blocking will melt away come November- only to amazingly return by next April😉

I have a feeling the longer outlook isn’t too good going into August, we need an ex-hurricane or two to reset the North Atlantic 

That’s right Jacko. You’d have to put the smart money on northern blocking sinking over France and the med just in time for winter, leaving us as target practise for the Atlantic til next spring 🤣 🌧 

Signs of another hot blast towards the end of the second week of August.. just hints for now.

Signs of another hot blast towards the end of the second week of August.. just hints for now.

not according to last nights ensembles:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

Too early to be confident but more heat starting to leak back into the GEFS during mid August. Wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be a 3 strikes and you are out summer.

Edit: 00z update looks less promising:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

 

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Too early to be confident but more heat starting to leak back into the GEFS during mid August. Wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be a 3 strikes and you are out summer.

Edit: 00z update looks less promising:

 

Nil desperandum! The synoptics are looking better than the ensembles, with some pleasant warmth (though not heat) for the SE. The NW as ever more subject to passing LP

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