Not much cheer on the models this morning for fans of settled summer weather. High pressure to the north, high pressure to the south, channelling Atlantic depressions over the UK for the foreseeable future.

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I don't know how to insert a large image but just click on image below for a bigger image.

Anyway past 4 runs have become a little more consistent with regards to a hot plume event around (give or take day) 9-12 August. I'm going with a plume due to the rainfall spikes however these don't colour match with the warmer ones indicating that low pressure will likely ne nearby - needed for a plume.

Also hints still of another a few day's later.

 

 

 

A thoroughly dismal 12Z GEFS with a downward trend in both temperature and pressure, the latter struggling to rise above 1010mb even in London. I know it's only August 1 but summer is starting to look like a distant memory. ECM also looks far from settled tonight.

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A thoroughly dismal 12Z GEFS with a downward trend in both temperature and pressure, the latter struggling to rise above 1010mb even in London. I know it's only August 1 but summer is starting to look like a distant memory. ECM also looks far from settled tonight.

 

It's been over 26c today and will be for the next few days, a bit of perspective I think is needed . Not every day is going to be 38c. Summer is not over we might get a few days of rain but with heat still to our south any type of southerly will be super charged probably until mid September.

 

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It's been over 26c today and will be for the next few days, a bit of perspective I think is needed . Not every day is going to be 38c. Summer is not over we might get a few days of rain but with heat still to our south any type of southerly will be super charged probably until mid September.

 

Well said 😎

 

 

It's been over 26c today and will be for the next few days, a bit of perspective I think is needed . Not every day is going to be 38c. Summer is not over we might get a few days of rain but with heat still to our south any type of southerly will be super charged probably until mid September.

 

As is often the case in summer, a significant difference just a 2 hour train journey away.

The weather has been warm but has been spectacularly unsettled over the past week up here -  widespread flooding in major population centres and tonight the risk of a dam bursting in Whaley Bridge. 

The silence on TWO during all this active weather has been deafening. That isn’t a dig - just a representation of where we all live. :-) 

I’m afraid I share Rob’s negativity. 

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As is often the case in summer, a significant difference just a 2 hour train journey away.

The weather has been warm but has been spectacularly unsettled over the past week up here -  widespread flooding in major population centres and tonight the risk of a dam bursting in Whaley Bridge. 

The silence on TWO during all this active weather has been deafening. That isn’t a dig - just a representation of where we all live. :-) 

I’m afraid I share Rob’s negativity. 

Your negativity could be understood as your up north but Rob's is somewhat bemusing seeing as he's apparently in the southeast - Hampshire. It's almost moominescent and i agree with Ally.

 

Your negativity could be understood as your up north but Rob's is somewhat bemusing seeing as he's apparently in the southeast - Hampshire. It's almost moominescent and i agree with Ally.

I am in Hampshire but since the heatwave ended on Friday we have only had one decent warm and sunny day which was Monday. Today was warm but fairly grey, and my comments were really about the model output, which from the GEFS at least show the next 3-4 days being the best it will get for the next two weeks by some margin.

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As is often the case in summer, a significant difference just a 2 hour train journey away.

The weather has been warm but has been spectacularly unsettled over the past week up here -  widespread flooding in major population centres and tonight the risk of a dam bursting in Whaley Bridge. 

The silence on TWO during all this active weather has been deafening. That isn’t a dig - just a representation of where we all live. :-) 

I’m afraid I share Rob’s negativity. 

For some areas around the N Midlands and NW England, this summer could possibly end up being wetter than 2012...which is staggering in itself.

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I am in Hampshire but since the heatwave ended on Friday we have only had one decent warm and sunny day which was Monday. Today was warm but fairly grey, and my comments were really about the model output, which from the GEFS at least show the next 3-4 days being the best it will get for the next two weeks by some margin.

But that's not what they have been suggesting.

 

 

and that is by no means in isolation either.

 As is often the case in summer, a significant difference just a 2 hour train journey away.

The weather has been warm but has been spectacularly unsettled over the past week up here -  widespread flooding in major population centres and tonight the risk of a dam bursting in Whaley Bridge. 

The silence on TWO during all this active weather has been deafening. That isn’t a dig - just a representation of where we all live. :-) 

I’m afraid I share Rob’s negativity. 

As a can't-get-much-further southerner, I wouldn't presume to comment repeatedly on the effects of northern weather; I think I might get told off! So, yes, the reports we get do depend on where people live. And,out walking yesterday only a few miles from the Hampshire border, it was mostly sunny and definitely warm, so I feel positive.

Nevertheless, back to the thread! Both the major synoptics (oz runs) and the ensembles agree on brief pulses of warmth being pushed aside by LP from the west. For those weekending, not staycationing, the good news is that the warmth coincides with this weekend and the next. Rain shown in the ensembles from a quick look around various locations seems to be more in the north, especially the Scottish borders, than in the south.

In Europe, the large area of strikingly well below average temps in western Russia that I commented on a week ago is still in place and remains so for the forecastable future http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Does this have any effect on the UK? Can't think why it should but any ideas?

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As a can't-get-much-further southerner, I wouldn't presume to comment repeatedly on the effects of northern weather; I think I might get told off! So, yes, the reports we get do depend on where people live. And,out walking yesterday only a few miles from the Hampshire border, it was mostly sunny and definitely warm, so I feel positive.

Nevertheless, back to the thread! Both the major synoptics (oz runs) and the ensembles agree on brief pulses of warmth being pushed aside by LP from the west. For those weekending, not staycationing, the good news is that the warmth coincides with this weekend and the next. Rain shown in the ensembles from a quick look around various locations seems to be more in the north, especially the Scottish borders, than in the south.

In Europe, the large area of strikingly well below average temps in western Russia that I commented on a week ago is still in place and remains so for the forecastable future http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Does this have any effect on the UK? Can't think why it should but any ideas?

Given the weather has been so extreme and spectacular I’d have expected more comment to be honest - whether or not you live here -  I guess if it’s not snow or major heat we’re not that fussed on this forum, as a rule. 

Back to the thread, looks unsettled to me in the medium range, not just for the north. A trough in the vicinity of the UK giving plenty of unwanted convective and frontal rainfall for many. 

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_144_1.png

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Yes Joe you’re right it does look a generally unsettled low pressure dominated output. That will no doubt mean strong winds and quite a bit of rain in places (although hopefully fewer of the more intense events of the past week). It will of course not stop southern and more especially SEern parts from being pleasantly warm and more settled at times. I don’t want to use the word autumnal based on the charts you have posted but it is hard to resist the temptation.

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A very typical British August on show from the ECM weeklies with above average rain for the next 4-weeks. Temps warm this week but from next week the signal become weaker.

After recording breaking heat just last week things are rapidly looking Autumnal all very common for the UK in August 

A very typical British August on show from the ECM weeklies with above average rain for the next 4-weeks. Temps warm this week but from next week the signal become weaker.

After recording breaking heat just last week things are rapidly looking Autumnal all very common for the UK in August 

agreed all looks very typical 0f august a very familiar pattern yet to break the run of generally poor Augusts since 2003. More unsettled in North and west drier and warmer in South and east at times but no heatwave as mentioned on bbc last eve. We are always looking for the next heatwave these days no doubt one day in decades to come our summers will become one long heatwave meantime business as usual

As a can't-get-much-further southerner, I wouldn't presume to comment repeatedly on the effects of northern weather; I think I might get told off! So, yes, the reports we get do depend on where people live. And,out walking yesterday only a few miles from the Hampshire border, it was mostly sunny and definitely warm, so I feel positive.

Nevertheless, back to the thread! Both the major synoptics (oz runs) and the ensembles agree on brief pulses of warmth being pushed aside by LP from the west. For those weekending, not staycationing, the good news is that the warmth coincides with this weekend and the next. Rain shown in the ensembles from a quick look around various locations seems to be more in the north, especially the Scottish borders, than in the south.

I was off yesterday, and it was indeed a lovely day even up here. Today's nice as well. 

BBC forecasts showers both Saturday & Sunday kicking off late afternoon here. That may or may not happen, but it already lowers in advance the feelgood that the last couple of days' weather might bring - and stops you planning for days out or events.

And the GFS at least doesn't paint a rosy picture for next weekend, either. So again, no planning days out or events.

 

In Europe, the large area of strikingly well below average temps in western Russia that I commented on a week ago is still in place and remains so for the forecastable future http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Does this have any effect on the UK? Can't think why it should but any ideas?

I can't help going with the theory that climate change over the Arctic is leading to conditions being conducive to extensive blocking over that region. Given further blocking to our south, as happens every summer, we're stuck in the middle of a low pressure highway.

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agreed all looks very typical 0f august a very familiar pattern yet to break the run of generally poor Augusts since 2003. More unsettled in North and west drier and warmer in South and east at times but no heatwave as mentioned on bbc last eve. We are always looking for the next heatwave these days no doubt one day in decades to come our summers will become one long heatwave meantime business as usual

 

I don't even need a heatwave. Just 3-4 weeks of bone-dry and sunny. Don't care if temps only get to the 22-24c range.

 

 

 

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I do wonder whether some of the unusual synoptics we have been seeing are down to the solar cycle. We are in deep solar minimum at the moment - two months of very few sunspots have elapsed and still no sunspots and with the solar flux much reduced:

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I don't even need a heatwave. Just 3-4 weeks of bone-dry and sunny. Don't care if temps only get to the 22-24c range.

 

 

 

So basically June 2018?  I'm the same really. The first half of summer last year in these parts was just bliss. 

 

So basically June 2018?  I'm the same really. The first half of summer last year in these parts was just bliss. 

 

Well it lasted from early May to close to the end of July, so 3 months essentially.

We were at New Brighton May Day 2018 and, granted you wouldn't got me or my kids in there, but it was so warm (low/mid-20's iirc) that some brave/daft souls were wading in the sea, with some scrotey kids jumping in the marine lake.

 

 

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