Looks like quite a nasty disturbance for the time of year later this week. Details differ but decent agreement between GEM, GFS and ECM. 

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Looks like quite a nasty disturbance for the time of year later this week. Details differ but decent agreement between GEM, GFS and ECM. 

It certainly does.

It reminds me of Fastnet synopsis of 1979. 

 

This week looks okay here with average temperatures (low 20s) and the risk of showers. Pretty much the same as the end of July.

After the weekend is when things start looking funny but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. First third of August, at least here, can safely be summed up as pretty good. 

 

indeed. 

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I wouldn’t really say after the weekend, this is what the GFS 12z op run has for Friday evening.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_105_1.png 

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I wouldn’t really say after the weekend, this is what the GFS 12z op run has for Friday evening.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_105_1.png 

absolutely Doc, some places to get a real soaking which won’t help the harvest. Dare I say almost Autumnal ? 

 

absolutely Doc, some places to get a real soaking which won’t help the harvest. Dare I say almost Autumnal ? 

You have dared to say it, or words to that effect, since late May!

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You have dared to say it, or words to that effect, since late May!

really? 

Just checked back, 2nd of August was the first time I mentioned Autumn. More fake news !! 😀

Keep the autumnal complaints to the moaning thread!

In the meantime, what the charts actually show is low pressure regularly visiting the UK, occasionally quite deep as on Friday. Ensembles have intermittent rain, most notably in the north, temps a bit below average but sun is still high so will feel warm if it comes out.

Experiences will vary, depending on whether you can arrange to be somewhere that the showers arrive overnight, or vice versa.

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I wouldn’t really say after the weekend, this is what the GFS 12z op run has for Friday evening.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_105_1.png 

The forecast for here doesn’t look bad for the weekend - average temperatures with showers, though a bit on the windy side. Early Friday morning will be a very wet affair but it clears away and a high of 23C is expected. Surface charts don’t tell the whole story.

After the weekend is probably correct regarding temperatures when they become below average.

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Unsettled theme continues indefinitely.

Referring to the ensembles, the south and to some extent the east get a dry interlude after Friday for the weekend but the rain never seems to leave the north (including a 60mm spike for Edinburgh on 14/15th - can this be right?)

Temps below average mostly, but with little bumps widely around the 9th and 18th.

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ECM much less extreme than GFS . In fact it doesn't look to bad for the south temps probably average after weeks of above average conditions in the SE and EA. Wetter and cooler in the NW. The Azores high looks like it will become more influential as we head into the second half of August. 

 

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The forecast for here doesn’t look bad for the weekend - average temperatures with showers, though a bit on the windy side. Early Friday morning will be a very wet affair but it clears away and a high of 23C is expected. Surface charts don’t tell the whole story.

After the weekend is probably correct regarding temperatures when they become below average.

So apart from being a bit on the windy side and very wet Friday looks okay? 

It has not been a bad summer so far but for most the outlook iscertainly unsettled and much cooler and indeed more autumnal in the next week or two.

The sub-zero t850s by day 10 on this morning’s ECM op run are somewhat chilly for August.

 

 

 

In contrast the GEM op output has t850s here at 10°C at the same time point.

 

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Jesus, Mary and Joseph

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/edinburgh  has the worst summer's day I've ever seen forecast

Feast your eyes on this Edinburgh Festival highlight:

 

yes amazing how bad it can get in Aug often windier and wetter than Sep . Never forget the bank holiday gale of 1992 which wiped out many campsites in the SW and the very wet BH monday 2014. and many more dreadful august days over the decades. 1985 and 1986 also spring to mind as awful months Unfortunately it is nothing that unusual. 'Unseasonably windy and wet' is not that unseasonable in Aug!

yes amazing how bad it can get in Aug often windier and wetter than Sep . Never forget the bank holiday gale of 1992 which wiped out many campsites in the SW and the very wet BH monday 2014. and many more dreadful august days over the decades. 1985 and 1986 also spring to mind as awful months Unfortunately it is nothing that unusual. 'Unseasonably windy and wet' is not that unseasonable in Aug!

Yes although it has been quite warm so far this month it has also been quite wet and likely to get wetter over the next 10 days or so .

We cant buy a good August lately .

Jesus, Mary and Joseph

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/edinburgh  has the worst summer's day I've ever seen forecast

Feast your eyes on this Edinburgh Festival highlight:

 

yes awful output, a number of outdoor events potentially face cancellation this weekend. 

Looking further ahead and it remains quite unsettled into next week. 

 

So apart from being a bit on the windy side and very wet Friday looks okay? 

Friday morning, as I very clearly said. I don’t care if the morning is wet as long as it improves later on, which is what will happen. You don’t get temperatures in the mid 20s from wet and windy weather in any case.

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yes amazing how bad it can get in Aug often windier and wetter than Sep . Never forget the bank holiday gale of 1992 which wiped out many campsites in the SW and the very wet BH monday 2014. and many more dreadful august days over the decades. 1985 and 1986 also spring to mind as awful months Unfortunately it is nothing that unusual. 'Unseasonably windy and wet' is not that unseasonable in Aug!

This is absolute tosh. July 2012, July 2008, July 2007, July 2000, July 1998, July 1993, July 1988.. all disappointing at best but most of them were just downright bad. What point do you think you’re proving exactly? In recent years have we had any flooding in August that has come closer to the catastrophic flooding of June and July 2007? The answer is no.

.

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This is absolute tosh. July 2012, July 2008, July 2007, July 2000, July 1998, July 1993, July 1988.. all disappointing at best but most of them were just downright bad. What point do you think you’re proving exactly? In recent years have we had any flooding in August that has come closer to the catastrophic flooding of June and July 2007? The answer is no.

.

 

Indeed. Yet more utter hyperbolic guff. Meanwhile, off to the Essex coast tomorrow for ‘autumnal’ 25c maxima and 12 hours of sunshine. 

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Friday looks good after midday. Weekend also looking very pleasant. Funny old world.

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