It’s not a summer for long settled spells but it is one for heatwaves. Act 3 starting to appear in the GEFS ensembles - one or two would see France threatening its June all time record again.

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It’s not a summer for long settled spells but it is one for heatwaves. Act 3 starting to appear in the GEFS ensembles - one or two would see France threatening its June all time record again.

Act 3 has been appearing on & off for a couple day's now. :)

I do wonder whether some of the unusual synoptics we have been seeing are down to the solar cycle. We are in deep solar minimum at the moment - two months of very few sunspots have elapsed and still no sunspots and with the solar flux much reduced:

That's exactly what I've attributed the significant -AO and at times -NAO signatures seen this summer to. 

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Dear oh dear.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_180_1.png

Thankfully the 12z MetO (at T+144 at least) is a little better. By no means a total washout. 

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Must be honest and say I'm not liking the output at the moment. Possibly quite unsettled and a tad autumnal if the GFS / GEFS is on the case. 

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Must be honest and say I'm not liking the output at the moment. Possibly quite unsettled and a tad autumnal if the GFS / GEFS is on the case. 

I agree!

GFS 12z was dreadful, full stop 

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Hideous output, look away now.
Autumnal August Again ?

Same as yesterday, LP from Atlantic pushing up a bit of warm air from the south before itself moving across the UK for a few days of unsettled weather - then repeat, repeat, ...

Next weekend's heat now briefer and only really appearing on the ECM synoptics. Rain forecast on ensembles more widespread than it was yesterday, though still in short supply in the south. 

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Dreadful stuff again this morning with some big rainfall totals over the next 10 days, especially for the West.

 

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The 144 hour accumulated precipitation charts tells the story well.

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That's exactly what I've attributed the significant -AO and at times -NAO signatures seen this summer to. 

There was a lot of -AO days during the both the Summers of 2015 & 2016 believe it or not, though not with the notable persistence of this year. Have no idea if they also coincided with a low sunspot run as that is something I don't really follow. 

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For quite a while, the GFS has been running with the idea of a small but active low pressure system taking a short cut through the UK on Friday night - similar to the one a few days ago but slightly more deeper. But the other models (UKMO and ECM) are still less keen on it. Would be a good coup for the US model if that ends up being the verified solution come the moment.

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Synoptic pattern is still for LP running into and across the UK, occasionally bringing up some warmth from the south only to lose it again. More rain in the north than the south; temps widely below average but with a little bump of improvement around 10 Aug and a more general recovery (but only to average) around the 16th. Ensemble runs showing unusual agreement on this temp profile.

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yep pretty unsettled generally and no heat returning as yet. However the far south looks like a pretty useable week pleasant temperatures some sunshine and i feel little rain till Friday certainly not expecting much here on the South East coast in this set up . Overall the weather here has been pretty good overall  since about  the last week of June 

 

 

yep pretty unsettled generally and no heat returning as yet. However the far south looks like a pretty useable week pleasant temperatures some sunshine and i feel little rain till Friday certainly not expecting much here on the South East coast in this set up . Overall the weather here has been pretty good overall  since about  the last week of June 

 

indeed. I’m off this coming week and the weather looks perfectly usable, just bang average English summer conditions really. The ramping of ‘autumnal’ conditions is par for the course on TWO but the hyperbole is best ignored.

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indeed. I’m off this coming week and the weather looks perfectly usable, just bang average English summer conditions really. The ramping of ‘autumnal’ conditions is par for the course on TWO but the hyperbole is best ignored.

This week looks okay here with average temperatures (low 20s) and the risk of showers. Pretty much the same as the end of July.

After the weekend is when things start looking funny but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. First third of August, at least here, can safely be summed up as pretty good. 

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Temps clinging into the mid 20s for some this week but it's looking cooler from the weekend with below average 850s

Autumnal August looks like continuing in terms of persistently unsettled conditions throughout and with a trend downwards in temperatures in the medium term. Thankfully the models are not known for their reliability at day 10.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png 

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Looking cooler from the weekend, sub <5c 850 temps starting to cover the country, as others have said could be subject to change, but looks like temperatures will fall below 20c in many parts. My house is constantly at 24c at the moment, so it will have its upside.
However this coming week is looking ok as has been the weather throughout July and August so far.

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Looks to me from the output currently available that the jet stream is going to liven up a bit towards the end of this week, after the relatively slack synoptics we saw for much of the time during July. If it means somewhat fresher weather then bring it on, as much of July was rather humid here and sometimes rather uncomfortable for sleeping at night.

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