not according to last nights ensembles:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

The one's before had a fair number at or just over 15C, and the one's before them even had runs into the low 20's again. Been this way for a couple day's and just like the 00z there have been the odd rubbish run to.

Too early to be confident but more heat starting to leak back into the GEFS during mid August. Wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be a 3 strikes and you are out summer.

Edit: 00z update looks less promising:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

 

 

Massive difference in the PPN with the Manchester/Liverpool ensembles. 

In these general situations we can generally just hope that the 'lows affecting the north west' are very north west. Sadly, they're not north west enough on the recent outputs.

 

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Very flat, unremarkable looking ENS this evening. Which usually means something spectacular is just about to appear at 312 hours.

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Some warm and dry weather at the end of this week, especially in the SE. Thereafter the models agree on increasing influence from LP from the Atlantic on the cool side and unsettled generally for the foreseeable.

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The Cornish call August “The rainy season” looking at the models this could be true...again

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Looking very much like a SE to NW split over the next week or so . Mid 20s in the SE and EA with little rain. Then it could go down hill for everyone after that. Very wet but still warm.

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Just like last year, it feels like autumn has begun on the last weekend of July.

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Just like last year, it feels like autumn has begun on the last weekend of July.

Already had the first couple of "happens every time with the school summer holiday" comments on my weather page.

But it's true, as soon as kids break up, the weather take a turn for the worse and the latest GFS and ECM runs doesn't instill much confidence by showing the jet stream taking a short cut over the UK thus making it difficult for high pressure to ridge back in from the south.

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Some warm and dry weather at the end of this week, especially in the SE. Thereafter the models agree on increasing influence from LP from the Atlantic on the cool side and unsettled generally for the foreseeable.

The ens don't back this up though. 

As i mentioned the other day the idea of plume type heatwave is still being toyed with. The latest has 3 clusters hinting at warmth, the first (coolest) later this week, the second around the end of next week, and a third now showing after a cool spell later in month.

Its worth remembering that 15C 850's is more then capable of bringing high 20's and low 30's

 

 

It is still nice here and right in the middle of the holidays.

Although it is quite a cyclonic outlook it is relatively warm in many places albeit with the risk of big rainfall events like yesterday’s and some of the other recent events.

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The ens don't back this up though. 

They did at 0800 this morning

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It is still nice here and right in the middle of the holidays.

Although it is quite a cyclonic outlook it is relatively warm in many places albeit with the risk of big rainfall events like yesterday’s and some of the other recent events.

There was certainly no big rainfall event here during yesterday and all we got from this latest area of low pressure was just a very small amount of rain during yesterday and then, nothing at all during today.

Anyway, I know that this isn't the moaning thread and so back on topic, I'm not convinced that our outlook is actually as wet here as the model output would suggest especially over the next week.

To me, it seems as though during most of that outlook period, the models are only pointing towards an increased risk of showers, rather than any actual significant longer spells of rain.

yes, it is true that this will no doubt give some large rainfall totals in other parts of the UK. That is typical of the fact that where I live here in the UK is the most boring part of the UK overall when it comes to our weather with nearly all of the more interesting weather always only ever happening elsewhere.

It is also true that we have had a very wet summer here until now. Yet nearly every time that showers are forecast for here, we usually always never end up actually getting them here. This has indeed happened to such an extent during this summer that I can usually ignore such a forecast for showers altogether because I already know that I am unlikely to see any of those showers here.

All in all, that adds up to being not such a wet outlook here after, although it also adds up to a continuation of our usual summer borefest as there will no doubt still be plenty of cloud and almost constant grey skies anyway.

 

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They did at 0800 this morning

The one's i linked image to are from 6am are they not? 6z?  Anyhows yesterday's 12z also and todays 12z also have hints.

F

 

There was certainly no big rainfall event here during yesterday and all we got from this latest area of low pressure was just a very small amount of rain during yesterday and then, nothing at all during today.

Anyway, I know that this isn't the moaning thread and so back on topic, I'm not convinced that our outlook is actually as wet here as the model output would suggest especially over the next week.

To me, it seems as though during most of that outlook period, the models are only pointing towards an increased risk of showers, rather than any actual significant longer spells of rain.

yes, it is true that this will no doubt give some large rainfall totals in other parts of the UK. That is typical of the fact that where I live here in the UK is the most boring part of the UK overall when it comes to our weather with nearly all of the more interesting weather always only ever happening elsewhere.

It is also true that we have had a very wet summer here until now. Yet nearly every time that showers are forecast for here, we usually always never end up actually getting them here. This has indeed happened to such an extent during this summer that I can usually ignore such a forecast for showers altogether because I already know that I am unlikely to see any of those showers here.

All in all, that adds up to being not such a wet outlook here after, although it also adds up to a continuation of our usual summer borefest as there will no doubt still be plenty of cloud and almost constant grey skies anyway.

 

I thought it would have been obvious I was referring to the event in Yorkshire? There has been very little measurable rain in my location in the past 10 days. The coming week or so suggests only a few more mm of rain here based on the model output. Other places, further west especially, look much wetter. The outlook continues to be cyclonic but on the warmer side of average for most.

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The 'hints' of heatwave 3 are growing days 9 and 10 on the ECM look toasty. One to watch.

 

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F

I thought it would have been obvious I was referring to the event in Yorkshire? There has been very little measurable rain in my location in the past 10 days. The coming week or so suggests only a few more mm of rain here based on the model output. Other places, further west especially, look much wetter. The outlook continues to be cyclonic but on the warmer side of average for most.

You probably wouldn't have thought that there was so little in the way of recent rainfall (or any sort of poor weather) in your part of the world if you went solely by Richard's reports over that period but then, you learn something new every day I suppose.

 

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The one's i linked image to are from 6am are they not? 6z?  Anyhows yesterday's 12z also and todays 12z also have hints.

TWO chart viewer at that time (0800 or a little earlier) was showing the 0z. I've had a quick look at the 12z ens now showing and there's more scatter, so there are hot runs to be found. But the mean ens is still below average so 'hints' is the appropriate word.

For the glass-half-full people amongst us, yes, the ECM 12z at T+240 is warm, and much more so than the 0z; but for the glass-half-empty people, try GFS 12z at the same time!

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Enough variability this morning to keep chart watching interesting as a hobby. Pressure never high for any length of time, temps near average with best chance of (short-lived) warmth around the 10th according to ensembles.

But did any of the models predict this week's rainfall in the north of England? There's always a bit extra.

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Enough variability this morning to keep chart watching interesting as a hobby. Pressure never high for any length of time, temps near average with best chance of (short-lived) warmth around the 10th according to ensembles.

But did any of the models predict this week's rainfall in the north of England? There's always a bit extra.

Yes they generally picked up on the rainfall well with many of the models showing over 100mm in parts of the north (England and SW Scotland). The specifics of course, due to the nature of convective precipitation, were less well modelled.

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Yes they generally picked up on the rainfall well with many of the models showing over 100mm in parts of the north (England and SW Scotland). The specifics of course, due to the nature of convective precipitation, were less well modelled.

 Yes very difficult to be that specific on local storms. Up in Glen Cassley 3 weeks ago there was a local storm over Ben More Assynt which put the river in a roaring spate in a matter of hours.Only just managed to get down the Glen as the Burns were washing boulders into the road. I t did not make news as virtually no one lives up there.