GFS has another potential heatwave

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I dont get that Geoff what does SEI mean not seen that before?

GFS has another potential heatwave

I think we're in for a hot August.

 

 

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The outlook looks very mixed if not poor at the moment no sign of flaming August yet.

 

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Indeed...00 GEFS consensus showing a very tight cluster of ENS for the next 10 days of around average temps...

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Ecm looks unsettled as well although warm if not very warm at times also. The most obvious thing about the output at the moment is the lack of sustained high pressure anywhere near the UK. 

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Models now agreed on a very wet week coming up.

 

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_180_49.png 

Nothing overly settled or anticyclonic in the outlook at the moment as others have suggested but it does look generally warmer than average. Hidden in the middle of that low pressure dominated mess could be some quite pleasant weather.

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Models now agreed on a very wet week coming up.

 

Don't need to look at the models. I know the outlook is poor when you aee back posting. 😂😂😂

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Can I be the first to say it? 

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Can I be the first to say it? 

"Summer is over" 😂😂😂

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Ecm looks unsettled as well although warm if not very warm at times also. The most obvious thing about the output at the moment is the lack of sustained high pressure anywhere near the UK. 

What we need for a sustained settled period along the lines of what we saw for much of last summer IMO is for a fall in pressure over the Greenland region. As long as pressure remains relatively high there, any settled weather we get will only be transient at best.

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What we need for a sustained settled period along the lines of what we saw for much of last summer IMO is for a fall in pressure over the Greenland region. As long as pressure remains relatively high there, any settled weather we get will only be transient at best.

I don't normally look at the positives as you know, but despite the general pessimism, I think we will get at least one more really hot spell before summer is out. The heat to our south is intense and it won't take much for us to tap into this again. Northern blocking is not always bad news for us, if it's in the right place, as it can push low pressures south into the mid Atlantic, which will act as a catalyst for drawing warmth up from the south. I think this is very likely to happen again in the next 10-14 days. Time will tell, but I doubt this unsettled spell will last too long.

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I don't normally look at the positives as you know, but despite the general pessimism, I think we will get at least one more really hot spell before summer is out. The heat to our south is intense and it won't take much for us to tap into this again. Northern blocking is not always bad news for us, if it's in the right place, as it can push low pressures south into the mid Atlantic, which will act as a catalyst for drawing warmth up from the south. I think this is very likely to happen again in the next 10-14 days. Time will tell, but I doubt this unsettled spell will last too long.

Anything is possible with our weather, Kieren.

I, for one, am willing to bet a tenner that if I or anyone else at the start of this month had come on here and predicted that towards the end of July we'd have a potentially record-breaking heatwave, we'd have been laughed at by many members. They would have been justified too, as there was little if any indication in the model ouput of such a spell being possible until about 10 days ago. One can never afford to be too sure of anything with our weather and also with the model output. In my experience, the latter is often as fickle as the former.

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Models now agreed on a very wet week coming up.

 

Evidence please?

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Evidence please?

ECM 00z https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20190804-0000z.html

GFS 00z (op run) https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_180_49.png 

To be fair it does look wet in some places.

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I don't normally look at the positives as you know, but despite the general pessimism, I think we will get at least one more really hot spell before summer is out. The heat to our south is intense and it won't take much for us to tap into this again. Northern blocking is not always bad news for us, if it's in the right place, as it can push low pressures south into the mid Atlantic, which will act as a catalyst for drawing warmth up from the south. I think this is very likely to happen again in the next 10-14 days. Time will tell, but I doubt this unsettled spell will last too long.

 

It would be nice to see a heatwave  rear its head soon as the output above anything else at the moment is boring. Met Office seem to think its more than possible in August but their long range accuracy has been pretty bad it has to be said.

 

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Even if August turns out disappointing (again), there's always the chance of an Indian Summer in September.

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Synoptics are generally slack but low pressure is in evidence and given the potential warmth at this point in time I would expect wide variations in thundery rainfall this week. Some places could get a lot of rain

Much better 12s so far GFS is settled and warm from 96h to 240h temps in the high 20s in the SE. 

GEM upto 168h similar.

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