My youngest breaks up tomorrow evening.

It's coincidence, sure, but it's a really annoying one.

Happened in 2013, 2014, 2018 (none of 15, 16, 17 had any exceptional spells)

The fact we've not had a great August since 2003 bears out the bad luck.

But in my opinion only August 2014 was actually bad - as in, cool and wet. The other ones were pretty average really. August 2018 was only poor for the final 10 days.

---

ECM once again repeats the scenario of disruption under the block (which GFS seems to have finally adopted as well). Warm/humid air never really leaves the east with the front retreating back west over the weekend, with heavy, possibly thundery rain along that front.

---

 

But in my opinion only August 2014 was actually bad - as in, cool and wet. The other ones were pretty average really. August 2018 was only poor for the final 10 days.

 

In any case it’s just a Weather Outlook cliche - I dare say the six weeks of the school summer hols are among the warmest six weeks of the year, statistically.

---

 

 

 

 

There's two threads already discussing the current hot spell and temps.

This thread should be for discussing a little further ahead.

The weekend is a complex situation, and relatively tiny changes will mean the difference between a fine, dry day and several hours of drenching. I for one would like some of the resident experts to share their thoughts on this 

For now, both GFS and the MetO suggest Saturday will be wettest in the east, but this has been flip-flopping seemingly every run.

 

agree with all that. There is almost no chat at all on either channel about Saturday, which is the one day of the week most people care about. It seems that the balance of probability puts the line of rain largely to the east of the meridian. But who knows? The other options (usually underplayed on weather forums) is that the front ploughs through in a couple of hours, or fizzles out. Not sure if there is much support for those this time however?

---

 

 

In any case it’s just a Weather Outlook cliche - I dare say the six weeks of the school summer hols are among the warmest six weeks of the year, statistically.

Exactly, it’s a bit of fun weather lore for heaven’s sake.

---

This thread is getting trashed.

Please could all posters put any picking of hot spots in the heat wave thread, and if you really want to discuss school holidays, I suggest a new thread in the Forum Arms.

Model outputs only in this thread, please

---

This thread is getting trashed.

Please could all posters put any picking of hot spots in the heat wave thread, and if you really want to discuss school holidays, I suggest a new thread in the Forum Arms.

Model outputs only in this thread, please

Quite. And do we need three threads on temperatures tomorrow as well? (4 if you count CC).

Anyway, on the MO front the ECM tries to assert LP from the west in a classic Channel Low that would be much talked about in winter. Thereafter it looks very much like early last week's output reloaded, with LP going nowhere out to the west. Perhaps primed for a pattern repeat?

---

 

Quite. And do we need three threads on temperatures tomorrow as well? (4 if you count CC).

Anyway, on the MO front the ECM tries to assert LP from the west in a classic Channel Low that would be much talked about in winter. Thereafter it looks very much like early last week's output reloaded, with LP going nowhere out to the west. Perhaps primed for a pattern repeat?

My guess is that the High Temperatures thread is kind of like the summer equivalent of the snow reports thread which we have in winter, with the July Potential Heat Record thread being the summer equivalent of the snow potential threads which we have during the winter.

The latter of those two threads therefore contains posts which would otherwise go into this thread but since that other thread exists, this thread should really just be used for other model output discussions which aren't specifically relevant to that other thread.

However, I have noticed that this doesn't tend to be the case all the time and so, it is really up to Brian and the mods here to ensure that these principles are applied if whoever is posting in these threads isn't doing so themselves as they should be.

 

---

 However, I have noticed that this doesn't tend to be the case all the time and so, it is really up to Brian and the mods here to ensure that these principles are applied if whoever is posting in these threads isn't doing so themselves as they should be.

 

Quite. Hence my post with my moderator's hat on above.

---

It's all very exciting, but there's a danger of getting too many threads so that no-one can find anything. I agree that today's weather is likely to spawn an extraordinary number of posts so useful to have them all in one thread. May O recommend the following protocol:

Historic Heat watch - actual reports from anywhere of temps today 25th July

High temp reports  - suspended for now, will re-open tomorrow

Potential record breaker - speculation as to where things will happen next

Current conditions - actual reports from where you are now unless meriting a post in Historic heat Watch

Convection thread  - reports of storms and their development

Model output thread - developments over the next few days

---

A mixture of shallow, possibly thundery troughs around over the next week, with occasional pulses of warmer air from the south, but no real agreement on timing or intensity. Watch this space ... but particularly GFS 0z around 6th August which has sub-552 dam air covering all of UK. Perhaps we will need to start a thread for record low temps in August?

---

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

After that it’s looking decidedly average, still some signs of warm plumes from time to time but equally a rather chilly cluster towards the end of the run.

---

It's all very exciting, but there's a danger of getting too many threads so that no-one can find anything. I agree that today's weather is likely to spawn an extraordinary number of posts so useful to have them all in one thread. May O recommend the following protocol:

Historic Heat watch - actual reports from anywhere of temps today 25th July

High temp reports  - suspended for now, will re-open tomorrow

Potential record breaker - speculation as to where things will happen next

Current conditions - actual reports from where you are now unless meriting a post in Historic heat Watch

Convection thread  - reports of storms and their development

Model output thread - developments over the next few days

Let's not forget as well that if anyone is either unhappy about what is happening today or wishes to gloat about that, there is also the summer moaning thread which is currently on page 2 of the default list of threads on this forum as I write.

 

---

While everyone is focusing on today's possible record, the GFS 6Z is trundling out and is looking very promising for next week.....Another settled and warm spell on the horizon maybe with intense heat just to our south, you can't rule out another heatwave.

---

While everyone is focusing on today's possible record, the GFS 6Z is trundling out and is looking very promising for next week.....Another settled and warm spell on the horizon maybe with intense heat just to our south, you can't rule out another heatwave.

Yes I agree. The outlook is top drawer as far as I am concerned. There is the possibility of big heat and big rain. The margins are fine and that's as good as it gets for weather websites.  

---

Well having waded through the past couple of pages of off topic dross, it’s looking a fine balance again in the longer term between more possible heat or more possibly rain- and fairly hefty stuff at that. Perhaps a similar set up reload?
In the short team some hefty rainfall totals for the east in the next few days

GFS 12Z has a spell of rain for the south on Monday night but then largely settled for a week before the next Atlantic LP approaches. Nothing unduly hot but looks pleasant enough. Temps in the mid 20s for the south for the most part, perhaps a little warmer towards the end of next week. I have my eye on the first weekend of August as I am at a mountain-bike event in Yorkshire. Not too hot, not too windy, and dry would be ideal!

---

After a couple of days with LP around Britain, perhaps thundery at times, it looks fairly settled and warm for most for next week. Both GFS and ECM then start bringing in cold LP from the Atlantic. If you believe GFS at long range, the chart for Sun 11 August wouldn't be out of place in midwinter

It's worth remembering that our hot spell has been countered by below  average temps in eastern Europe - parts of Russia have been 6C below normal this last week and continue so for the next. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

---

After a couple of days with LP around Britain, perhaps thundery at times, it looks fairly settled and warm for most for next week. Both GFS and ECM then start bringing in cold LP from the Atlantic. If you believe GFS at long range, the chart for Sun 11 August wouldn't be out of place in midwinter

It's worth remembering that our hot spell has been countered by below  average temps in eastern Europe - parts of Russia have been 6C below normal this last week and continue so for the next. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

Synoptically it may look akin to winter however in terms of temperature it is very much a summer LP: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_384_2.png 

In the shorter term a swathe of the country looks having some significant rainfall in the next few days as a weather front stalls across the country. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_72_49.png 

Beyond that it is a bit of mix but it seems to be generally on the warmer side of the average for much of the time.

---

The GEFS members showing the slightest amplification upwards into early August

This after a week of looking very flat.  One to keep an eye on

---