Know doubt in my mind that without the strat responding you will not see big freezes as in Feb 56,winter63, 87, 09/10, Dec 10 etc. Whether this perculates from a minor strat warming or a full blown SSW. The strat at least up to 30mb is normally affected to see strong enough hlb's to deliver potent cold to our shores. There is a big difference also between splits and displacements. This time around we have had a split in quite a favorable way with the vortices displaced to either side of the pole and greater gph to our north. The only problem lies in the very slow downwelling.
Dispite a slight knee jerk reaction to the output yesterday and demise of the easterlies by the end of the working week I am convinced we will see a prolonged period of cold/very cold wintry weather to come. My money would be on the gfsp synoptic development, with high pressure to the east building over the top of a sinking trough and then strengthening heights to our north ushering in frigid continental Arctic air.

 

Yes I think it looks quite exciting for Scotland, especially for the west.

Plenty of opportunities over the next 2 weeks I think.

For England and Wales - I understand the lack of excitement for now. 

 

 

 

There's perhaps a degree difference (if that) in the 850's between the Ens for East Kilbride and the Ens for Manchester. If people are getting giddy about the West Scotland prospects, then they should expand that into Northern England, too.

I'm not particularly hopeful we'll get anything worth getting excited over, but there've been a number of instances over the years where a forecasted cold spell has failed to come off, but a week or so later a different cold spell seemingly comes out of nowhere (the reality is that it was showing in the models all along, but a combination of a renewed distrust over the models, the actual cold spell not being as headline-grabbing as the initial 'fail', and often not impacting the S/SE, means it's overlooked)

 

 

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There's perhaps a degree difference (if that) in the 850's between the Ens for East Kilbride and the Ens for Manchester. If people are getting giddy about the West Scotland prospects, then they should expand that into Northern England, too.

I'm not particularly hopeful we'll get anything worth getting excited over, but there've been a number of instances over the years where a forecasted cold spell has failed to come off, but a week or so later a different cold spell seemingly comes out of nowhere (the reality is that it was showing in the models all along, but a combination of a renewed distrust over the models, the actual cold spell not being as headline-grabbing as the initial 'fail', and often not impacting the S/SE, means it's overlooked)

 

 

Good points Saint.

We might see something over the next fortnight or so - lots of NW'ly incursions are forecast. Cold 850's and a light drift off the Irish Sea could result in a surprise or two, with a bit of luck.

We'll see - certainly no exceptional cold in the outlook.

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BBC now showing wintry showers for this weekend around here... wasnt there this morning. I can see the GFS had some wintryness about on the 6z run. But the BBC wouldnt show this without perhaps a stronger hint to go on. They usually update an hour or two before the GFS runs, So I suspect the next run might show somewhat of an upgrade back to blues throughout for this weekend. We will see....

It would fall in line with previous flip/flops we have seen yrs gone by.

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There's perhaps a degree difference (if that) in the 850's between the Ens for East Kilbride and the Ens for Manchester. If people are getting giddy about the West Scotland prospects, then they should expand that into Northern England, too.

I'm not particularly hopeful we'll get anything worth getting excited over, but there've been a number of instances over the years where a forecasted cold spell has failed to come off, but a week or so later a different cold spell seemingly comes out of nowhere (the reality is that it was showing in the models all along, but a combination of a renewed distrust over the models, the actual cold spell not being as headline-grabbing as the initial 'fail', and often not impacting the S/SE, means it's overlooked)

 

 

NW winds don't bring anything east of the pennines either so from a snow point if view it's a fail there to.

 

NW winds don't bring anything east of the pennines either so from a snow point if view it's a fail there to.

 

The Leeds & Sheffield Ens are showing no shortage of ppn.

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The more i look at the charts the more i realise the UK has become the warm front grave yard... where warm sectors come to die.

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It is still a generally cold outlook with a milder blip on Friday. Wintry potential for some and frustration for others.

This theme continues on the 12z GFS op so far.

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12z different again , keener on keeping a cold NWly flow by the looks 

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The Leeds & Sheffield Ens are showing no shortage of ppn.

Neither location is particularly east either with both being very central, and sitting towards the much lower south pennine area.

This weekend could be potentially quite wintry somewhere in the UK, with a number of mild features running into colder air. Snow could be the difference of 20 miles from a covering and mild rain.

Will be interesting to see this develop.

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This weekend could be potentially quite wintry somewhere in the UK, with a number of mild features running into colder air. Snow could be the difference of 20 miles from a covering and mild rain.

Will be interesting to see this develop.

Sometimes these boundary clashes can really deliver , I have missed some in the past but also had a really good dump

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Quite a good 12z from GFS …..…….recovered from the pants of 6z 

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144 - onwards is looking very snowy -nation wide. Which is unusual on a northwesterly. Very complicated trough delivering lots of precip features which lots of heavy frontal snow for everyone.

Question is, will it be there tonight?/

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_288_1.png 

Nailed on!!

It’s clear that the GFSP “snow depth” charts are equally as ridiculously poor as the old GFS. According to the latest run, by midnight tonight more than three quarters of the country will have lying snow.

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This weekend could be potentially quite wintry somewhere in the UK, with a number of mild features running into colder air. Snow could be the difference of 20 miles from a covering and mild rain.

Will be interesting to see this develop.

You've changed your tune. 

I agree btw.  

Nice to see a more wintry 12z op run, but the potential was already there, and little has changed. 

Plenty of snow opportunities, especially for the north.

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It would be a cruel irony that if and when a northeasterly arrives the cold air has dissolved away (as per the jam section of GFS).

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You've changed your tune. 

I agree btw.  

Nice to see a more wintry 12z op run, but the potential was already there, and little has changed. 

Plenty of snow opportunities, especially for the north.

 

yeh its funny what a cup of tea and a walk can do for your soul.

 

Serioulsy though.  Its odd how slight changes here or there can change the perception of a chart etc.  Theres an ounce more hope on the latest run.  The beasterly isnt happening.  But there still is quite alot of potential.  Only problem is, the type of charts that are being presented are classic marginal events, so this wont be the end of the heart ache,

 

 

 

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It’s clear that the GFSP “snow depth” charts are equally as ridiculously poor as the old GFS. According to the latest run, by midnight tonight more than three quarters of the country will have lying snow.

🤣

and this virtual reality winter just keeps on giving ...