6z is so so different from the 0z 

 

Agreed, after a week or so of relative consistency, even down to about 120hrs, weve moved to a more eratic model output.  This mornings as you say is quite different to the previous.  Something is going on that models are having a hard time nailing, which so it seems wasnt an issue last week.

I only hope its a consequence of something useful to us coldies :)

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Obviously this is just the OP and can sit anywhere in the ENS

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6z is poor ………...the OP I should add

 

Looks like a disaster!

Tonight rain to snow event looks like a non event for the SW and as for wintry showers after? - well the models have now upped the temps by 2 or so degrees. 

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Agreed, after a week or so of relative consistency, even down to about 120hrs, weve moved to a more eratic model output.  This mornings as you say is quite different to the previous.  Something is going on that models are having a hard time nailing, which so it seems wasnt an issue last week.

I only hope its a consequence of something useful to us coldies :)

Yes the GFS Op run is getting worse and worse each run for cold and snow and despite it's cancellation of the easterly - even those potent northerlies are looking less potent more slack and some are becoming north westerly's instead!? Even in FI it looks milder and zonal! So...something isn't right here? Met Office were saying a very cold end to Feb etc.

What the heck is going on? Is the weather punishing us because of BREXIT?

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One of the worst OP runs for sometime 

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It's a little like the early 00s when Benfield Hazzard and the Met were touting the May N Atlantic SST profile. Despite what anyone else may say, that correlation has proved to be of limited value. I think SSWs will also come to be seen as a very blunt forecasting tool too. 

The SSW occurrences are just a sequence that need to be taken into consideration, they do effect the surface, that is without doubt.  Its not the effect that is in question it is the location of effect.  The inevitable breakdown of the PV is the missing piece in the jigsaw, when we are capable of predicting its spread etc, it will always be practically impossible to look beyond a few days with any certainty, other than a general trend.

Some researchers, say they suspect that the more frequent polar vortex breakdowns can be tied to climate change.

While climate change is warming the earth, not all parts of the earth are warming at the same rate; the Arctic warming is twice as fast as the world average. That warming has led to historically low levels of sea ice in the region. The melting sea ice, particularly in an area near the Barents and Kara Seas off Siberia, may be linked to the changes in the polar vortex.

There are some excellent papers with ever increasing correlation of evidence to support these views.  There apparently is also some evidence that winters will become more sever but shorter due to this.  

So when the LR forcast have a good strong SSW and split PV to play with, it is inevitable that somewhere in the NH there will be some extremes of weather, made easier by the known fact that an SSW is likely to effect our neck of the woods enough to predict a probability that it will be colder than normal with the chance of it being very cold.  

 

 

One of the worst OP runs for sometime 

Indeed. The writing has been on the wall for some time. This is a dreadful winter. Promised so much but has delivered zilch.

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Nah - this is growing more and more poor by the run.  That HP out west is allowing milder air to seep into any little LP feature  which inturn delivers a mild sector straight to the UK. 

 

I really wouldnt give FI any confidence on cold weather as its so watered down by the time it gets into a "reliable" time frame. As soon as the charts go below 120 any cold is tame and useless to anyone, including most upland areas too.   Will be lucky to see a sleet shower here tomorrow on that northwesterly, whereas a few days ago the north westerlly was looking semi decent.

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This will be one of those winters to remember for all the wrong reasons.

This should really be in the moaning room, but i think this is sensible analysis and not far from everyones thoughts.

 

I maintain that the outlook is generally cold. It is. That’s objective analysis. 

No severe cold or significant snow looks likely on the Wirral (or Manchester for that matter) anytime soon however. Maybe a trip to Buxton is in order! 

We may see a few flakes tomorrow afternoon. 

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I do think that the research has shown how certain natural cycles favour certain long wave patterns in the northern hemisphere, i.e. Where the main upper troughs and ridges tend to be located. But that's only really about probabilities again, not certainties - and it certainly doesn't deal with the inherent chaos of short wave developments.

People mustn't misinterpret and misunderstand the signals. Nobody has said the SSW will deliver cold and the long-range forecasts always talk of probabilities and not certainties.  The prediction was that the patterns favoured a colder end to the winter but that doesn't exclude a normal or mild February.

 

I know that but the emphasis on SSW being the be all and end all in getting cold to these shores is grossly overplayed in many weather forums Gandalf. We only have to look back to the winter of 09/10 and December 2010 to see it’s not required, true it does enhance  our chances but that’s all.

Indeed. The writing has been on the wall for some time. This is a dreadful winter. Promised so much but has delivered zilch.

Hmmm, I imagine that some were saying similar things this time last year Kieren!

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One of the worst OP runs for sometime 

Thankfully it's only one run!! But even the weather is punishing the UK due to BREXIT and our Political Turmoil!! -0 The weather hates us!

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One of the worst OP runs for sometime 

With each passing day the output for HLB delivering the goods is diminishing fast, the long term models say yeah but the short term ones say nay.

 

Have they managed to retrospectively establish a connection to SSW for the more frequent cold and snowy winters of the sixties, seventies and early eighties?

If you look at the list of identified major SSWs (up to 2013) in Table 2 in this paper, you can see that there have been lots of SSWs that haven't been followed by a notable UK cold spell, as well as plenty of notable UK cold spells that weren't preceded by a major SSW:

https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf

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Looks like a disaster!

Tonight rain to snow event looks like a non event for the SW and as for wintry showers after? - well the models have now upped the temps by 2 or so degrees. 

 

Story of this whole winter to be honest. Got a decent air frost last night even on the coast, but this is all I can hope for this season in the UK and I’m resigned to that now. Looking forward to some spring warmth now. I’ll get my snow fix in the Alps in a few weeks but here? Forget it.

 

Hmmm, I imagine that some were saying similar things this time last year Kieren!

I am all for your positivity David, but even you must concur this is all looking pretty awful at the moment.

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Welcome on board.  I gave up on them years ago, other than general trends, next to useless.

Should be called LRG's. Long Range Guesses. They are not worth the paper calling them forecasts.

 

I maintain that the outlook is generally cold. It is. That’s objective analysis. 

No severe cold or significant snow looks likely on the Wirral (or Manchester for that matter) anytime soon however. Maybe a trip to Buxton is in order! 

We may see a few flakes tomorrow afternoon. 

Yes, and even the 6z offers some snow opportunities later next week, including a heavy snow event for the south in FI on the 31st.

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Thankfully it's only one run!! But even the weather is punishing the UK due to BREXIT and our Political Turmoil!! -0 The weather hates us!

Bear in mind that most people - oddly enough - don't like cold and snow. So on a national level, maybe Britain is being rewarded!

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I am all for your positivity David, but even you must concur this is all looking pretty awful at the moment.

It's not looking as good as it did for a time 3-4 days ago granted, but it is not in any way "pretty awful", IMHO. It depends upon where one happens to be. From what I can see of what is being suggested by the GFS and ECM op runs, the pattern they are suggesting is not at all far off the one that dominated much of last winter; a mostly NW-SE pattern which will always be better for northern areas in terms of wintry weather and less so for the south. We had a NW airstream for almost a week last January which gave my area our largest amount of snow of last winter prior to the arrival of the Beast at the end of February.

If there is one thing the wild swings in the output over the past few days should have made clear to everyone, it is that all output for more than a few days ahead is very prone to changes at the moment. Therefore I think that it would be more than a tad premature for anyone to write off what remains of this meteorogical winter at this moment in time, given the amount of flux there seems to be in the output.

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It's not looking as good as it did for a time 3-4 days ago granted, but it is not in any way "pretty awful", IMHO. It depends upon where one happens to be. From what I can see of what is being suggested by the GFS and ECM op runs, the pattern they are suggesting is not at all far off the one that dominated much of last winter; a mostly NW-SE pattern which will always be better for northern areas in terms of wintry weather and less so for the south. We has a NW airstream for almost a week last January which gave us our largest amount of snow of last winter prior to the arrival of the Beast at the end of February.

If there is one thing the wild swings in the output over the past few days should have made clear to everyone, it is that all output for more than a few days ahead is very prone to changes at the moment. Therefore I think that it would be more than a tad premature for anyone to write off what remains of this meteorogical winter at this moment in time, given the amount of flux there seems to be in the output.

To be honest David the outlook looks pretty decent for you. 

Glasgow is the one city in the UK where you can currrently look forward to some snow opportunities. 

Euro4 snow accumulation btw (normally very conservative) Wednesday 6z

 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

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