It was a week ago for this week.
I agree that the NWP has been teasing us with cold output all winter long in the post 200 hours charts.
GEFS look pretty solid for cold post Fri/Sat warm blip for both north and south UK albeit coldest in the north.
I am more confident now of the NWP being right about cold weather post 144 than at anytime this winter. Today is the first time this winter I have been posting in the MO thread. There is certainly variations between models in the 00z runs for next week but there always is at such long range. But they all show cold.
I think that we can trust the NWP more now and that winter will set in next weekend!