That’s more like it

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml 

GEFS 192+ some good one's ( several)

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GEFS 192+ some good one's ( several)

Back on track for the next tease 🥕 🤣🤣🤣

GFSP is not so encouraging out in FI.

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GFSP is not so encouraging out in FI.

The trick with model watching this winter is not to look at anything after t+144 and to treat anything after t+96 as FI.

Winter never arrives, because  the small features which repeatedly scupper our chances don't materialise in the models until t+96.

I am resolutely refusing to look beyond t+144 from now on - I am sick to death of looking at day 10 winter wonderland charts which this winter, melt away faster than April snow.

Whatever the reasons, all the models are completely flatulent rubbish post day 6 - utter drivel and not to be believed whatever they show.

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Big dippers and trenchers have mostly disappeared again. The pattern at a glance looks similar but a big change has occurred in the last 24 hours. The cold now comes mainly from a northerly quarter rather than an easterly one. Could actually be better for snow hunters in the northern half of the UK but southern and central regions (generally) will have fewer opportunities for snow and there wouldn't be a repeat of Feb 2018's powder. 

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The trick with model watching this winter is not to look at anything after t+144 and to treat anything after t+96 as FI.

Winter never arrives, because  the small features which repeatedly scupper our chances don't materialise in the models until t+96.

I am resolutely refusing to look beyond t+144 from now on - I am sick to death of looking at day 10 winter wonderland charts which this winter, melt away faster than April snow.

Whatever the reasons, all the models are completely flatulent rubbish post day 6 - utter drivel and not to be believed whatever they show.

If you stop looking at 96hr then the entire outlook is currently cold.  If you look beyond then Brian’s post sums things up, although the ECM may have different ideas later in the run.

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Decent GEFS , flatlining at about -6c. If this did actually verify surely a good snow event or 2 would turn up.

 

 

 

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Whatever the reasons, all the models are completely flatulent rubbish post day 6 - utter drivel and not to be believed whatever they show.

This has always been the case though MM. Anything after is 'just for fun', but I will admit that it does become wearying after a while. 

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If you stop looking at 96hr then the entire outlook is currently cold.  If you look beyond then Brian’s post sums things up, although the ECM may have different ideas later in the run.

Not cold enough for lowland England though - Tuesday will be cold rain, no prolonged frost or snow - just cold rain and grey. The most dismal weather imaginable and that is just the coming week.

There is no point in cold unless it delivers snow and ice days. Daytime max of 4 degrees, nightime lows of 1 degree, combined with grey skies and continuous drizzle, is the worst weather there is.

Beyond that, the models as I wrote, change every day and are completely pointless for our region.

P.S. if the ECM 120 chart is to be believed (which is highly debatable) Scotland is going to be mild on Friday.

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Wandering through the GFS postage stamps suggests that for the most part we're in for more of the same pattern wise as we have now - winds often from a Northerly quadrant, with LPs pushing down over the country bringing a risk of rain, sleet and snow just about anywhere. 

Could be very good for Scotland and parts of England that have a bit of height but more likely to be a chilly mess down here I'd have thought, with maybe some transient snow events if all the pieces fall together.

T2m temps down here suggest it'll be wandering between 2-4c during the day for the most part, reaching the dizzying heights of 8c or so during the brief mild blip. Night time temps often dip below freezing too.

Whilst there's still a signal for northern blocking in deep FI the 12z as a whole manages to avoid too much eye candy and generally keeps things chilly or cold but messy.

Could be worse and it'd at least be nice to see some falling snow if nothing else although the pattern as a whole sucks from a getting out and cycling point of view

 

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Daytime max of 4 degrees, nightime lows of 1 degree, combined with grey skies and continuous drizzle, is the worst weather there is.

We call this 'scaldy weather' over here. But I agree. Such mediocre low temps, combined with damp dankness, always feels colder and more miserable than the 'real thing'. During the -5.0c blizzard last Feb, it was comfortable enough to be out with just a shirt. On the other hand, a 5.0c in a chilled westerly cuts through body and soul. Can't explain the reason for this, but it is just something I have noted time and time again. 

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This has always been the case though MM. Anything after is 'just for fun', but I will admit that it does become wearying after a while. 

And the reason it’s called Fantasy Island!  How many times do we hear that and those other famous words ‘more runs needed’?  Yet some people take it as read!  It’s the MOD thread. Discuss the models but don’t take it to heart. 

I have personally found this thread more interesting than the actual weather this winter, even if it’s been a case of ‘look at what you could have won’.  It just goes to show how very close we sometimes come to getting the weather we crave.  

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The trick with model watching this winter is not to look at anything after t+144 and to treat anything after t+96 as FI.

Winter never arrives, because  the small features which repeatedly scupper our chances don't materialise in the models until t+96.

I am resolutely refusing to look beyond t+144 from now on - I am sick to death of looking at day 10 winter wonderland charts which this winter, melt away faster than April snow.

Whatever the reasons, all the models are completely flatulent rubbish post day 6 - utter drivel and not to be believed whatever they show.

I have sympathies with this. But I will look beyond 144.  Ive managed to cross the Rubicon in my mind and I simply don't believe a chart til its within 96 hours, 120 for some guidance and 144 is of marginal use. Edit - yes, as jhall indicates, its about the ensembles beyond that, and at looking at the FULL range of models, rather than just the top 3.

 

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This has always been the case though MM. Anything after is 'just for fun', but I will admit that it does become wearying after a while. 

There's 3 problems with the models as I see it:

1. Inevitably some processes aren't modelled perfectly. This aspect is being improved, eg with GFSP as compared to GFS.


2. The models represent the atmosphere as a grid in three dimensions. That means that there will inevitably be small-scale features falling between the grid points that aren't picked up, and such features can develop to become significant. This is gradually being improved as more powerful computers make it possible to have more grid points, closer together.


3. Linked to #2 is the fact that the atmosphere is a chaotic system, which means that any minor errors are going to tend to snowball as time goes by. You might need to be able to individually model every molecule in the atmosphere to avoid that, so however good the models become we are told that we are never likely to get perfect accuracy beyond about 5-7 days.

Taking all that into account, I think the models do remarkably well. I'm old enough to remember the days before computer models were used for forecasts, when 48 hours was about the limit for anything fairly reliable. The models do even better if you don't focus too much on the operational runs, but concentrate on what the ensembles indicate. Apart from the milder "bump" that has recently appeared in the 850 mb temperatures for next Friday/Saturday, the GFS and ECM ensembles have been remarkably consistent for a good many days now in showing a mean 850 mb temp of about -5 persisting for most of the next couple of weeks.

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European 12z looking progressive and chilly at 168.

 

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Big dippers and trenchers have mostly disappeared again. The pattern at a glance looks similar but a big change has occurred in the last 24 hours. The old now comes mainly from a northerly quarter rather than an easterly one. Could actually be better for snow hunters in the northern half of the UK but southern and central regions (generally) will have fewer opportunities for snow and there wouldn't be a repeat of Feb 2018's powder. 

Several of those p's are from a NEly or Ely also , so its not entirely a Northern bonanza 

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The trend continues , will get interesting after next weekend 

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Several of those p's are from a NEly or Ely also , so its not entirely a Northern bonanza 

No, as you say there are exceptions.

PS: Musty be having a midlife crisis as I've done old for cold twice in the last 24 hours. Could be a dodgy keyboard I suppose... 

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The trend continues , will get interesting after next weekend 

Yet more interest in FI. Before that it looks like Tuesday will be a bust for lowland areas. All in all very disappointing from this Bullseye Winter