Big dippers and trenchers have mostly disappeared again. The pattern at a glance looks similar but a big change has occurred in the last 24 hours. The cold now comes mainly from a northerly quarter rather than an easterly one. Could actually be better for snow hunters in the northern half of the UK but southern and central regions (generally) will have fewer opportunities for snow and there wouldn't be a repeat of Feb 2018's powder. 

If you stop looking at 96hr then the entire outlook is currently cold.  If you look beyond then Brian’s post sums things up, although the ECM may have different ideas later in the run.

Decent GEFS , flatlining at about -6c. If this did actually verify surely a good snow event or 2 would turn up.

This has always been the case though MM. Anything after is 'just for fun', but I will admit that it does become wearying after a while. 

Not cold enough for lowland England though - Tuesday will be cold rain, no prolonged frost or snow - just cold rain and grey. The most dismal weather imaginable and that is just the coming week.

There is no point in cold unless it delivers snow and ice days. Daytime max of 4 degrees, nightime lows of 1 degree, combined with grey skies and continuous drizzle, is the worst weather there is.

Beyond that, the models as I wrote, change every day and are completely pointless for our region.

P.S. if the ECM 120 chart is to be believed (which is highly debatable) Scotland is going to be mild on Friday.

Wandering through the GFS postage stamps suggests that for the most part we're in for more of the same pattern wise as we have now - winds often from a Northerly quadrant, with LPs pushing down over the country bringing a risk of rain, sleet and snow just about anywhere. 

Could be very good for Scotland and parts of England that have a bit of height but more likely to be a chilly mess down here I'd have thought, with maybe some transient snow events if all the pieces fall together.

T2m temps down here suggest it'll be wandering between 2-4c during the day for the most part, reaching the dizzying heights of 8c or so during the brief mild blip. Night time temps often dip below freezing too.

Whilst there's still a signal for northern blocking in deep FI the 12z as a whole manages to avoid too much eye candy and generally keeps things chilly or cold but messy.

Could be worse and it'd at least be nice to see some falling snow if nothing else although the pattern as a whole sucks from a getting out and cycling point of view

We call this 'scaldy weather' over here. But I agree. Such mediocre low temps, combined with damp dankness, always feels colder and more miserable than the 'real thing'. During the -5.0c blizzard last Feb, it was comfortable enough to be out with just a shirt. On the other hand, a 5.0c in a chilled westerly cuts through body and soul. Can't explain the reason for this, but it is just something I have noted time and time again. 

I have personally found this thread more interesting than the actual weather this winter, even if it’s been a case of ‘look at what you could have won’.  It just goes to show how very close we sometimes come to getting the weather we crave.  

I have sympathies with this. But I will look beyond 144.  Ive managed to cross the Rubicon in my mind and I simply don't believe a chart til its within 96 hours, 120 for some guidance and 144 is of marginal use. Edit - yes, as jhall indicates, its about the ensembles beyond that, and at looking at the FULL range of models, rather than just the top 3.

There's 3 problems with the models as I see it:

1. Inevitably some processes aren't modelled perfectly. This aspect is being improved, eg with GFSP as compared to GFS.
2. The models represent the atmosphere as a grid in three dimensions. That means that there will inevitably be small-scale features falling between the grid points that aren't picked up, and such features can develop to become significant. This is gradually being improved as more powerful computers make it possible to have more grid points, closer together.
3. Linked to #2 is the fact that the atmosphere is a chaotic system, which means that any minor errors are going to tend to snowball as time goes by. You might need to be able to individually model every molecule in the atmosphere to avoid that, so however good the models become we are told that we are never likely to get perfect accuracy beyond about 5-7 days.

Taking all that into account, I think the models do remarkably well. I'm old enough to remember the days before computer models were used for forecasts, when 48 hours was about the limit for anything fairly reliable. The models do even better if you don't focus too much on the operational runs, but concentrate on what the ensembles indicate. Apart from the milder "bump" that has recently appeared in the 850 mb temperatures for next Friday/Saturday, the GFS and ECM ensembles have been remarkably consistent for a good many days now in showing a mean 850 mb temp of about -5 persisting for most of the next couple of weeks.

European 12z looking progressive and chilly at 168.

Several of those p's are from a NEly or Ely also , so its not entirely a Northern bonanza 

The trend continues , will get interesting after next weekend 

No, as you say there are exceptions.

PS: Musty be having a midlife crisis as I've done old for cold twice in the last 24 hours. Could be a dodgy keyboard I suppose... 

Yet more interest in FI. Before that it looks like Tuesday will be a bust for lowland areas. All in all very disappointing from this Bullseye Winter

Terrific post JHall,  and I agree. 

About 10 years back, I treated myself to an expensive but snazzy looking traditional wall barometer. Must admit I rarely look at it, but can you imagine what an important piece of equipment this must have been to the generations before ours before the onset of TV/Radio forecasts and later, NWP outputs? And I wonder, was the 'humble' barometer any less accurate back then than even the hi-res model outputs are for today for any one location? 

Hang on a minute , wasn't this forecast as a backloaded winter.?

All the action was meant to be after any SSW 

 I think many, including me, will find it hard to disagree with this Caz 

My eyesight seems to be going really downhill this last year, and as a result, I often read 'more runs needed' as 'more nuns needed'. Or perhaps this could be just my brain just trying to tell me something 

Snow for many on that run 

Excellent run - the chase straight away begins 

Another cold NWly approaches

Yes, most forecasts went for a colder second half of winter and I suspect that is almost certain (not just because the bar is not exactly set high!) Having said that the forecasts at the beginning did not/could not have taken the SSW into account. 

Things still look cold and not just in FI. The problem is it may be cold but possibly not “cold enough” during any precipitation. I think hindsight may be needed for this one as well as a bit of nowcasting.

I would expect quite a bit of cold rain, some wintry or snow showers and some severe frosts in parts of the north especially. Frustratingly what we may end up with is a persistent cold outlook (end of the week blip excepted) without anything very snowy or prolonged deep cold. I do however think now that we are in a generally cold regime there will be more opportunities (as well as more disappointments). 

The U.K. view is impressive: -7c 850s and 500-1,000 hPa thickness around 520 dam. Definitely cold enough for snow to low levels even in the south

you wont have to wait that long Peter about 6c  drop behind that cold front

That is a very tight and potentially volatile looking thermal gradient between NFL and GL at 240:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_2.png

Problem is that even if the pattern proves to be right , it will be heavily modified come the time ,with any significant snow for the usual spots in a cold north westerly. They are rubbish for most of low land southern and Eastern England