Based on today's output I'd be surprised if Exeter don't ditch this week's easterly. We'll see!

This is what they say and I would be surprised if they change it significantly given the model output

“Thursday and Friday will see a very cold north to north-easterly airstream bringing sunshine and showers, the showers giving rain or snow and most frequent in the north and northeast.”

For example the chart above from the ICON model shows almost exactly what they describe.

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Based on today's output I'd be surprised if Exeter don't ditch this week's easterly. We'll see!

The ship has probably sailed now with regard a meaningful Easterly later this week but as Ben illustrates whilst there is  still a little uncertainty the forecast won’t change that much. At this range though I agree I did expect it to be dropped overnight.

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GEFS 00z completes construction of the first bump in the road with 850s now climbing about the 30 year mean between 25/01 and 27/01. Construction starting on another around 01/02? 

Brian, you may be correct re your second bump. Lets review first and then give it perspective.

Lets just say for the sake of argument that the deep low now showing up at 168-240hrs, does indeed slowly sink southward over the UK with its attendant mix of wintry weather. From a quick review of the ensemble suite at this possible “second bump in the road”, whilst many members do have the low moving south over the country, the eventual milder outcomes around 1/2 have it carrying on its journey for too long, so that it ends up too far south to influence our weather, or worse, drifts off to the southwest.

But lets keep this balanced. These outcomes are very much in the minority at the moment but they are one trend to watch as the pattern then becomes quasi-stationary.. My sense however, and not just my bias, does suggest that 1/2 will actually be the start of the real cold, and not the end of the beginning !

Jeff

 

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As the pattern continues to evolve I still think the models are struggling to model the southward progression of the Low centred here over Shetland on 23rd January on the GFS 0z Op which could have implications for how the next shot of cold develops.

 

With pressure higher to the NE and E you’d expect that low over Shetland to do one of two things.. Remain in situ and slowly fill or move south and deepen slightly over the North Sea. I agree a lot could depend on what it does next.

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Based on today's output I'd be surprised if Exeter don't ditch this week's easterly. We'll see!

Yes, clearly this isn't going to happen and will surely be changed later today.

Given the changes we've seen in the NWP over the last 36 hours there's little point in looking past the Atlantic incursion and milder temps next weekend. We've seen many winters in the last 30 odd where background signals inidicate that the NAO 'should' go negative but just never does and this may well be one of them.

 

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Tuesday needs close monitoring. The front is looking more and more fully occluded, having been a seperate mild / cold air split yesterday. Seems the wedge of milder air is shrinking on each run.

Should the milder air be squeezed out we could see a more widespread snow event. The Precip totals from the front alone look pretty decent.

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Based on today's output I'd be surprised if Exeter don't ditch this week's easterly. We'll see!

 

Actually Brian, based on some of the output overnight, it might be we end up heading back to that scenario just from a different evolution.  Lots of subtle changes which has seemed to completely alter what was fairly stable output this week, to create a completely different looking cold scenario, ultimately arriving in some sort of weak easterly. 

Therefore  I think we might get what was forecast,just delayed by a day or two.

the Met / Beeb / Meteo wont want to make knee jerk reactions with changes like that about in  the charts.

 

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Yes, clearly this isn't going to happen and will surely be changed later today.

Given the changes we've seen in the NWP over the last 36 hours there's little point in looking past the Atlantic incursion and milder temps next weekend. We've seen many winters in the last 30 odd where background signals inidicate that the NAO 'should' go negative but just never does and this may well be one of them.

 

Didn't the NAO go negative at the end of last winter when the Beast arrived here?

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Again for clarity the Met Offic do not currently forecasting easterly winds for next week. I posted their current outlook for next Thursday and Friday above. They cannot remove a reference to something that is not there. They do mention N or NEly winds for a couple of days which ties in with many of the models’ output.

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Didn't the NAO go negative at the end of last winter when the Beast arrived here?

The Beast was driven by High pressure to the NE as a response to the QTR. 

 

 

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Looking like some height rises in Greenland in about a week . This looks like the next Chase. Although Tuesday morning could be interesting but wrong side of marginal at the moment.

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Could be a belter - good blocking to the West 

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This may come back to bite me on the arse, but I’m more convinced by these height rises around Greenland around T+168 onwards than I ever was about this potential easterly. 

I think there is potential for a very wintry end of the month associated with a Greenland/Atlantic High. These outlooks tend to be more robust and reliable than a Scandinavian High easterly. 

Lots to keep an eye on, and despite yesterday’s disappointment, the outlook remains cool to cold, potentially very cold later.  

The MetO raw output is also now picking up the potential for sleet or snow here on Tuesday/Wednesday - trust me that never happens unless there is a fair old chance. 

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As I have said, I haven't been interested in the phantom easterly, the fun starts in February

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This may come back to bite me on the arse, but I’m more convinced by these height rises around Greenland around T+168 onwards than I ever was about this potential easterly. 

I think there is potential for a very wintry end of the month associated with a Greenland/Atlantic High. These outlooks tend to be more robust and reliable than a Scandinavian High easterly. 

Lots to keep an eye on, and despite yesterday’s disappointment, the outlook remains cool to cold, potentially very cold later.  

The MetO raw output is also now picking up the potential for sleet or snow here on Tuesday/Wednesday - trust me that never happens unless there is a fair old chance. 

I don't really see that at all, I was in Manchester last January for what looked a better 'cold zonal' event but saw nothing more rain and hail.

Of course as for events beyond day 7 , this is the classic evolution being shown by the GFS but we are reliant on getting enough of a break in the jet to deliver and of course nearer the time features are picked up and it often results in a toppler at best.

 

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Cant complain 

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Based on today's output I'd be surprised if Exeter don't ditch this week's easterly. We'll see!

 

To be honest with you, I am surprised that you think that way.  We have many discussions on a daily basis that revolve around potential based on the output of charts data from various sources.  Most of the time just about everything beyond 5 days practically never materialises as it was originally shown.  Great for an overall idea as to the possibility of a particular trend, but regards specifics, you will be wasting your time.  Even forecast beyond 3 and 5 days are fraught with uncertainty most of the time, but, do tend (in my opinion) to have a far better chance of verifying.

Take a look at any forecast from the Met and they never really call a change in weather in a specific way until much closer the time, and even then they always leave wiggle room.  Just take a look at their forecast overall from the beginning of Jan, in a roundabout way they have been spot on, but never specific unless its within the 3 to 5 day period.

My view on your calls is to stop reacting to changes like the changes themselves, this is the third (in my view) major change from TWO in the last 7 days.  

The trend is still towards progressively colder weather over a period of time with a better than average chance of the weather turning severe with an easterly influence at sometime soon.  With an extremely good opportunity for those favouring cold and snow to get their whishes, particularly north of Birmingham over the next week.

 

 

Didn't the NAO go negative at the end of last winter when the Beast arrived here?

Yes.

https://climexp.knmi.nl/data/icpc_nao_daily.dat

 

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Yes, clearly this isn't going to happen and will surely be changed later today.

 

 

You said as much yesterday.

Just so we can compare later, here's a reminder of yesterday afternoon's:

UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Jan 2019 to Saturday 2 Feb 2019:

Thursday and Friday will see a very cold north to north-easterly airstream bringing sunshine and showers, the showers giving rain or snow and most frequent in the north and northeast. It looks breezy on Thursday perhaps with coastal gales in the south and east, although winds should ease on Friday. Widespread locally severe night frosts are also likely.

 

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With ECM and GFS not a million miles away at 240 - this at 300 ( yes, yes FI) I still the E word might still be mentioned 

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