Looking like some height rises in Greenland in about a week . This looks like the next Chase. Although Tuesday morning could be interesting but wrong side of marginal at the moment.

Could be a belter - good blocking to the West 

This may come back to bite me on the arse, but I’m more convinced by these height rises around Greenland around T+168 onwards than I ever was about this potential easterly. 

I think there is potential for a very wintry end of the month associated with a Greenland/Atlantic High. These outlooks tend to be more robust and reliable than a Scandinavian High easterly. 

Lots to keep an eye on, and despite yesterday’s disappointment, the outlook remains cool to cold, potentially very cold later.  

The MetO raw output is also now picking up the potential for sleet or snow here on Tuesday/Wednesday - trust me that never happens unless there is a fair old chance. 

I don't really see that at all, I was in Manchester last January for what looked a better 'cold zonal' event but saw nothing more rain and hail.

Of course as for events beyond day 7 , this is the classic evolution being shown by the GFS but we are reliant on getting enough of a break in the jet to deliver and of course nearer the time features are picked up and it often results in a toppler at best.

Cant complain 

To be honest with you, I am surprised that you think that way.  We have many discussions on a daily basis that revolve around potential based on the output of charts data from various sources.  Most of the time just about everything beyond 5 days practically never materialises as it was originally shown.  Great for an overall idea as to the possibility of a particular trend, but regards specifics, you will be wasting your time.  Even forecast beyond 3 and 5 days are fraught with uncertainty most of the time, but, do tend (in my opinion) to have a far better chance of verifying.

Take a look at any forecast from the Met and they never really call a change in weather in a specific way until much closer the time, and even then they always leave wiggle room.  Just take a look at their forecast overall from the beginning of Jan, in a roundabout way they have been spot on, but never specific unless its within the 3 to 5 day period.

My view on your calls is to stop reacting to changes like the changes themselves, this is the third (in my view) major change from TWO in the last 7 days.  

The trend is still towards progressively colder weather over a period of time with a better than average chance of the weather turning severe with an easterly influence at sometime soon.  With an extremely good opportunity for those favouring cold and snow to get their whishes, particularly north of Birmingham over the next week.

Yes.

https://climexp.knmi.nl/data/icpc_nao_daily.dat

You said as much yesterday.

Just so we can compare later, here's a reminder of yesterday afternoon's:

UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Jan 2019 to Saturday 2 Feb 2019:

Thursday and Friday will see a very cold north to north-easterly airstream bringing sunshine and showers, the showers giving rain or snow and most frequent in the north and northeast. It looks breezy on Thursday perhaps with coastal gales in the south and east, although winds should ease on Friday. Widespread locally severe night frosts are also likely.

With ECM and GFS not a million miles away at 240 - this at 300 ( yes, yes FI) I still the E word might still be mentioned 

I agree with that. Scandi highs seem almost like emergent phenomena. They come and go in model world, with nothing particularly driving them. 

But to form a Greenland high you need something powerful and specific - warm-air advection in the right place in the Atlantic. And if the models are suggesting that, then it's a trend that's much harder to derail.

I can't remember his name, but there was a poster on here years ago (his avatar was a crawling insect) who once wrote: "Yellow over Greenland - that's when I get wood." I know what he means.

You're not trying hard enough. Complaining is the raison d'etre for this forum. 

Thanks CP.

Note for Ian: The NAO can still go negative at times these days, so it is not right to say it "just never does".

Trust me, I am more than aware of how fickle it is for snow round these parts, so you can definitely spare me the lecture there. :D 

The fact that the MetO show snow for here is a good sign for more prone areas, like where you live.

Also Jan 2015 didn’t look great for snow on a mediocre chilly westerly, and we got pummelled. 

Low pressure, chilly air, and lightish westerly winds can sometimes be more effective than a screaming NW’ly. 

The Kent contingent will be happy with the GFS 6z 

Just as an aside David, the most positive and negative daily NAO value for the month of Jan in that series, both occurred on the same date! that is, January 2nd. 

Yes Marcus.  A pleasing run out into deepest FI at the inception of the new month.  A dream scenario that has become vanishingly rare (except in FI ). The BftE last year was a reminder of what is possible. For me, this was always more likely to be a back loaded winter.  Good news is, I have my first air-frost (that wasn't a transient midnight dipper) of the autumn and winter season.  The clock is ticking and the trend for some deep snowy cold at t300 needs to be ushered in to t120, intact.  Not much to ask.

It remains to be seen whether there'll be another "blip" to come, or whether this time the cold will be able to persist for more than a couple of days.

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature 

Congrats! like me, you are now in the 'One Air Frost this Winter So Far' club. 

Rain to snow event on the raw output for my area. 

I can complain - stellar charts for 10 days hence keep appearing - they are meaningless. Show me a chart like that at t+120 and I shall start to get excited. This whole  winter has been a demoralising episode of chasing rainbows at 10 days - I am not going to get suckered that way again.

Will 144 do?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=144&code=18&mode=1&carte=

(Admittedly, it has next to no chance of coming off but it's a ray of light amongst the Atlantic dross!)

I said several winters over the last 30  years - not last year.

But you can’t stop looking, not even a tablet to take for it 😄🤩