This may come back to bite me on the arse, but I’m more convinced by these height rises around Greenland around T+168 onwards than I ever was about this potential easterly. 

I think there is potential for a very wintry end of the month associated with a Greenland/Atlantic High. These outlooks tend to be more robust and reliable than a Scandinavian High easterly. 

Lots to keep an eye on, and despite yesterday’s disappointment, the outlook remains cool to cold, potentially very cold later.  

The MetO raw output is also now picking up the potential for sleet or snow here on Tuesday/Wednesday - trust me that never happens unless there is a fair old chance. 

I agree with that. Scandi highs seem almost like emergent phenomena. They come and go in model world, with nothing particularly driving them. 

But to form a Greenland high you need something powerful and specific - warm-air advection in the right place in the Atlantic. And if the models are suggesting that, then it's a trend that's much harder to derail.

I can't remember his name, but there was a poster on here years ago (his avatar was a crawling insect) who once wrote: "Yellow over Greenland - that's when I get wood." I know what he means.

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Cant complain 

You're not trying hard enough. Complaining is the raison d'etre for this forum. 

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Yes.

https://climexp.knmi.nl/data/icpc_nao_daily.dat

 

Thanks CP.

Note for Ian: The NAO can still go negative at times these days, so it is not right to say it "just never does".

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I don't really see that at all, I was in Manchester last January for what looked a better 'cold zonal' event but saw nothing more rain and hail.

Of course as for events beyond day 7 , this is the classic evolution being shown by the GFS but we are reliant on getting enough of a break in the jet to deliver and of course nearer the time features are picked up and it often results in a toppler at best.

 

Trust me, I am more than aware of how fickle it is for snow round these parts, so you can definitely spare me the lecture there. :D 

The fact that the MetO show snow for here is a good sign for more prone areas, like where you live.

Also Jan 2015 didn’t look great for snow on a mediocre chilly westerly, and we got pummelled. 

Low pressure, chilly air, and lightish westerly winds can sometimes be more effective than a screaming NW’ly. 

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The Kent contingent will be happy with the GFS 6z 

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Thanks CP.

Note for Ian: The NAO can still go negative at times these days, so it is not right to say it "just never does".

Just as an aside David, the most positive and negative daily NAO value for the month of Jan in that series, both occurred on the same date! that is, January 2nd. 

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The Kent contingent will be happy with the GFS 6z 

Yes Marcus.  A pleasing run out into deepest FI at the inception of the new month.  A dream scenario that has become vanishingly rare (except in FI ). The BftE last year was a reminder of what is possible. For me, this was always more likely to be a back loaded winter.  Good news is, I have my first air-frost (that wasn't a transient midnight dipper) of the autumn and winter season.  The clock is ticking and the trend for some deep snowy cold at t300 needs to be ushered in to t120, intact.  Not much to ask.

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The ECM ensembles this morning tell the tale of the past 24 hours well: a few stragglers keep an easterly chill, the remainder show a milder blip over the weekend. Into the following week, there's pretty much no change from last week's output: the 850 mean hovers around -5C, the 2M temperatures hover around 3C by day (for London).

It remains to be seen whether there'll be another "blip" to come, or whether this time the cold will be able to persist for more than a couple of days.

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature 

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Good news is, I have my first air-frost (that wasn't a transient midnight dipper) of the autumn and winter season.  

Congrats! like me, you are now in the 'One Air Frost this Winter So Far' club. 

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This may come back to bite me on the arse, but I’m more convinced by these height rises around Greenland around T+168 onwards than I ever was about this potential easterly. 

I think there is potential for a very wintry end of the month associated with a Greenland/Atlantic High. These outlooks tend to be more robust and reliable than a Scandinavian High easterly. 

Lots to keep an eye on, and despite yesterday’s disappointment, the outlook remains cool to cold, potentially very cold later.  

The MetO raw output is also now picking up the potential for sleet or snow here on Tuesday/Wednesday - trust me that never happens unless there is a fair old chance. 

Rain to snow event on the raw output for my area. 

Cant complain 

I can complain - stellar charts for 10 days hence keep appearing - they are meaningless. Show me a chart like that at t+120 and I shall start to get excited. This whole  winter has been a demoralising episode of chasing rainbows at 10 days - I am not going to get suckered that way again.

 

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I can complain - stellar charts for 10 days hence keep appearing - they are meaningless. Show me a chart like that at t+120 and I shall start to get excited.

Will 144 do?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=144&code=18&mode=1&carte=

(Admittedly, it has next to no chance of coming off but it's a ray of light amongst the Atlantic dross!)

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Thanks CP.

Note for Ian: The NAO can still go negative at times these days, so it is not right to say it "just never does".

I said several winters over the last 30  years - not last year.

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Even though the outlook looks encouraging from +144 beyond until its at +72 or less then I think I’ll tske it with a pinch of salt after this weeks debacle.

But you can’t stop looking, not even a tablet to take for it 😄🤩

 

I can complain - stellar charts for 10 days hence keep appearing - they are meaningless. Show me a chart like that at t+120 and I shall start to get excited. This whole  winter has been a demoralising episode of chasing rainbows at 10 days - I am not going to get suckered that way again.

 

A milder spell next weekend seems to be gathering support looks transient though with temps beginning to drop as we move into the final few days of Jan and into Feb

there seems to be quite a lot more encouragement for interest in the semi-reliable 144+ range this morning. Also great to see the Met Office scientist replying to Brian on twitter yesterday adding some context to their thinking - reassuring that it didn't turn out to the be the work experience kid copy/pasting the forecast from Friday! they are continuing to be quite bullish this morning and much of the public model data appears to be backing this up again. Lots of crazy kneejerk reactions in both the main forums yesterday. i think someone posted 'game set and match' to the atlantic last night. At the time I was thinking possibly 'game' but definitely not 'set and match'... this morning it seems more like the game is held to deuce and things are just stretched out a bit. will be interesting to see if the cold late Jan/Feb script is just being tweaked rather than rewritten. Lots of interest at the moment I reckon!

Interesting to see on the 6z GEFS that the mean 850s for London have dropped by 4 degrees at the end of the mild blip (and the one lonely straggler shows up well).

It's also interesting that beyond the mild blip the mean 850s hover around the -5C mark, much as with the EPS. From the 31st to the 3rd the majority have winds from a NE'ly quarter, too, but of course that's very much subject to change.

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Will 144 do?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=144&code=18&mode=1&carte=

(Admittedly, it has next to no chance of coming off but it's a ray of light amongst the Atlantic dross!)

We must be in trouble when even you are resorting to cherry-picking snapshots from the ensembles.

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I said several winters over the last 30  years - not last year.

If you had said "the NAO has rarely gone negative in recent times", then I would not have disagreed with that. However, there is a difference between saying on the one hand that the NAO has rarely gone negative over the last thirty years and then at the same time saying that it NEVER goes negative. You can't have it both ways my friend.

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