The Weather Outlook

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Chunky Pea
20 January 2019 16:06:21

tropospheric response

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I hearby declare this term to be the official buzzword of 'The Great Winter of 2018/2019' 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

doctormog
20 January 2019 16:16:13

 

I hearby declare this term to be the official buzzword of 'The Great Winter of 2018/2019' 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Don’t be silly.

 

 

 

 

 

It’s two words 

The GFS 12z op is, like the ICON, more northerly again by Saturday http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_150_1.png 


Ally Pally Snowman
20 January 2019 16:19:24

Nice little short term upgrade with the northerly by next Saturday. Looks very decent for the Scottish 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
jhall
20 January 2019 16:24:35

Nice little short term upgrade with the northerly by next Saturday. Looks very decent for the Scottish 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

You forgot to add the obligatory "except in Aberdeen". 


Cranleigh, Surrey
Chunky Pea
20 January 2019 16:26:52

The GFS 12z op is, like the ICON, more northerly again by Saturday http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_150_1.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

850s still look a bit messy but you'll be grand for sure. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

David M Porter
20 January 2019 16:28:48

Nice little short term upgrade with the northerly by next Saturday. Looks very decent for the Scottish 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes, and the northern English too I would imagine.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Gavin D
20 January 2019 16:38:16

Could have some stiff uppers with this one

howham
20 January 2019 16:44:08

Could have some stiff uppers with this one

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Massive cock-up from GFS there...

doctormog
20 January 2019 16:46:47
I’m sure that is pointing at Trump...

Re. the 12z GFS generally the cold theme continues but again the details are changing.


stophe
20 January 2019 16:48:37

Could have some stiff uppers with this one

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

is that infamous murr sausage

Polar Low
20 January 2019 16:49:37

Nope it’s to big🤣🤣

 

is that infamouse murr sausage

Originally Posted by: stophe 

nsrobins
20 January 2019 16:52:39

Could have some stiff uppers with this one

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I’ll only be paying it limited lip service 😉😎


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Ally Pally Snowman
20 January 2019 16:54:09

Could have some stiff uppers with this one

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

Penetrating frost likely 

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
20 January 2019 16:54:39

This has to be one of the messiest charts I have ever seen:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_336_7.png

Cold, yes, but incredibly lack-lustre. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

jhall
20 January 2019 16:59:21

This has to be one of the messiest charts I have ever seen:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_336_7.png

Cold, yes, but incredibly lack-lustre. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Yes, there's a remarkably "stagnant" feel about all the later stages of the run, other than that mid-Atlantic depression that appears towards the end but which doesn't appear to be going anywhere.


Cranleigh, Surrey
White Meadows
20 January 2019 17:11:23

Could have some stiff uppers with this one

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

The States will get shafted from that. 

The Beast from the East
20 January 2019 17:15:39

Control. But we will see if this next attempt gets flattened as well a few days out


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Gooner
20 January 2019 17:25:08

Another good 12z , the chase starts quite soon 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Whether Idle
20 January 2019 17:26:19

Could have some stiff uppers with this one

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I think we can see where the SSW effects are manifesting themselves.  Just over the pond.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gooner
20 January 2019 17:26:55

Control. But we will see if this next attempt gets flattened as well a few days out

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Theme showing now , Nly followed by a NWly will the NEly follow


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



White Meadows
Gooner
20 January 2019 17:37:14

GEFS 192+ some good one's ( several)


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



White Meadows
20 January 2019 17:48:44

GEFS 192+ some good one's ( several)

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Back on track for the next tease 🥕 🤣🤣🤣

jhall
20 January 2019 18:07:29

GFSP is not so encouraging out in FI.


Cranleigh, Surrey
Maunder Minimum
20 January 2019 18:10:54

GFSP is not so encouraging out in FI.

Originally Posted by: jhall 

The trick with model watching this winter is not to look at anything after t+144 and to treat anything after t+96 as FI.

Winter never arrives, because  the small features which repeatedly scupper our chances don't materialise in the models until t+96.

I am resolutely refusing to look beyond t+144 from now on - I am sick to death of looking at day 10 winter wonderland charts which this winter, melt away faster than April snow.

Whatever the reasons, all the models are completely flatulent rubbish post day 6 - utter drivel and not to be believed whatever they show.


New world order coming.

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