GEFS 00z completes construction of the first bump in the road with 850s now climbing about the 30 year mean between 25/01 and 27/01. Construction starting on another around 01/02? 

There’s a weird feature on the GFS just to the northeast of Scotland - a very small but  deep low that stays almost perfectly stationary from about 66 to 96 hours. What’s going on there?

Probably trough disruption. The little low was supposed to drop with the rest of the engery allowing the easterly. It gets cut off thus stopping the pressure from building where we need it?

It is known as RACY in weather terms (Richard Aberdeen-induced CYclogenesis). An unusual feature caused by angry emissions of steam from a locality in Aberdeen drifting westward on vile execrable depression-inducing winds then hitting the cold water of the North Sea. Or something like that. 

It could of course be Jon’s less rational explanation. 

"Not a case of getting fooled it just highlights the uncertainty so i wouldnt put your faith in any one run just now ."

Couldn't agree more. Every run is a box of chocolates - a Forest Gump! 

Looking forward to some potential fun Tuesday night. 

GFS has sent its own consistent jam-tomorrow FI eye-candy specials to see Pete T in Feb, but at least by then Aunty Azores has gone to New England for a well earned break, having been working too hard on spoiling our winter thus far. That's the trend that can be picked out from all recent runs.

many of the other models show a more enhanced but short easterly incursion, so hmm - which chocolate next. 

I can appreciate those who have had chocolate overload, so close to Christmas after all, and eye-candy fatigue. 

Happy with the meat and veg of normal winter fare? Not really...the garden needs the real hard frosts of -10 uppers...that's one chocolate I still crave. It does seem to still be in the box - somewhere.

EPS remains bullish about trough sourced cold post 240hrs, but seems to be struggling, much like recent GFS runs, to get this broader pattern into a nearer time frame. 

😂 I’ve blocked Richards inane ranting but I do sort of miss it

I have thought all along that this morning would give us a better view for next week. The synoptics sppear to be in line with the Met’s chief last week so a good call by him.

In FI we see the potential impact of the SSW. Fingers crossed.

What's interesting (and I posed the question on the 18z last night) is the trend to sending energy south to the west of the Azores high from that US storm. Most models are picking up on it at very short notice now - don't think it'll be enough to save our bacon on a short route to cold, but it's fascinating to see:

6z ICON:

The mean for the 26th to 27th is definitely increasing at the moment on the London graph

Yesterday 06z to 18z

Today 00z

Yes, the generally cold outlook remains with a less cold interlude possible/probable(?) for a day or two towards the end of the coming week. The next few days stay chilly throughout with a snow risk in places. Not deep prolonged cold, nor deep nationwide low level snow, just colder than average with cold rain and potential wintriness.

What is totally absent in the model output is any clear sign of spells of mildness. If we are to look beyond day 6/7 the cold trend is very clear and this time next week things once again look chilly.

As the pattern continues to evolve I still think the models are struggling to model the southward progression of the Low centred here over Shetland on 23rd January on the GFS 0z Op which could have implications for how the next shot of cold develops.

Good summary; broadly little change overnight. Certainly nothing mild in the offing and certainly zero evidence of conventional zonality.

Monday night into Tuesday morning has potential for some snow to higher ground and on the back edge as the cold front slides through.  Thereafter quite a few wintry showers around, mostly but not exclusively for the usual areas.

Yes, I'm beginning to hold that out as a remote possibility.  Fascinating model watching nevertheless.

This is what they say and I would be surprised if they change it significantly given the model output

“Thursday and Friday will see a very cold north to north-easterly airstream bringing sunshine and showers, the showers giving rain or snow and most frequent in the north and northeast.”

For example the chart above from the ICON model shows almost exactly what they describe.

The ship has probably sailed now with regard a meaningful Easterly later this week but as Ben illustrates whilst there is  still a little uncertainty the forecast won’t change that much. At this range though I agree I did expect it to be dropped overnight.

Brian, you may be correct re your second bump. Lets review first and then give it perspective.

Lets just say for the sake of argument that the deep low now showing up at 168-240hrs, does indeed slowly sink southward over the UK with its attendant mix of wintry weather. From a quick review of the ensemble suite at this possible “second bump in the road”, whilst many members do have the low moving south over the country, the eventual milder outcomes around 1/2 have it carrying on its journey for too long, so that it ends up too far south to influence our weather, or worse, drifts off to the southwest.

But lets keep this balanced. These outcomes are very much in the minority at the moment but they are one trend to watch as the pattern then becomes quasi-stationary.. My sense however, and not just my bias, does suggest that 1/2 will actually be the start of the real cold, and not the end of the beginning !

Jeff

With pressure higher to the NE and E you’d expect that low over Shetland to do one of two things.. Remain in situ and slowly fill or move south and deepen slightly over the North Sea. I agree a lot could depend on what it does next.

Yes, clearly this isn't going to happen and will surely be changed later today.

Given the changes we've seen in the NWP over the last 36 hours there's little point in looking past the Atlantic incursion and milder temps next weekend. We've seen many winters in the last 30 odd where background signals inidicate that the NAO 'should' go negative but just never does and this may well be one of them.

Should the milder air be squeezed out we could see a more widespread snow event. The Precip totals from the front alone look pretty decent.

Actually Brian, based on some of the output overnight, it might be we end up heading back to that scenario just from a different evolution.  Lots of subtle changes which has seemed to completely alter what was fairly stable output this week, to create a completely different looking cold scenario, ultimately arriving in some sort of weak easterly. 

Therefore  I think we might get what was forecast,just delayed by a day or two.

the Met / Beeb / Meteo wont want to make knee jerk reactions with changes like that about in  the charts.

Didn't the NAO go negative at the end of last winter when the Beast arrived here?

Again for clarity the Met Offic do not currently forecasting easterly winds for next week. I posted their current outlook for next Thursday and Friday above. They cannot remove a reference to something that is not there. They do mention N or NEly winds for a couple of days which ties in with many of the models’ output.

The Beast was driven by High pressure to the NE as a response to the QTR.