February could still turn out to be a very cold wintry month. The NWP is predicting this.

Just chill out everyone!

Yes. A break of a week NWP watching as standard winter fare is likely to continue for the foreseeable!

GFS 6z has already downgraded next Saturday. What we want (i.e. proper winter with lowland snow) will never reach the reliable. I am not going to visit the models for at least another week either. I am sick of future promise with zero delivery.

I do think that the research has shown how certain natural cycles favour certain long wave patterns in the northern hemisphere, i.e. Where the main upper troughs and ridges tend to be located. But that's only really about probabilities again, not certainties - and it certainly doesn't deal with the inherent chaos of short wave developments.

People mustn't misinterpret and misunderstand the signals. Nobody has said the SSW will deliver cold and the long-range forecasts always talk of probabilities and not certainties.  The prediction was that the patterns favoured a colder end to the winter but that doesn't exclude a normal or mild February.

It's just one run and Saturday is T+120, which I think you said was FI....

I agree that the NWP has been teasing us with cold output all winter long in the post 200 hours charts.

GEFS look pretty solid for cold post Fri/Sat warm blip for both north and south UK albeit coldest in the north. 

I am more confident now of the NWP being right about cold weather post 144 than at anytime this winter. Today is the first time this winter I have been posting in the MO thread. There is certainly variations between models in the 00z runs for next week but there always is at such long range. But they all show cold.

I think that we can trust the NWP more now and that winter will set in next weekend!  

No it doesn't.  The chart shows something that alludes to that happening, it's not a fact.  Show the same scenario again next Saturday and then we can say its mild in the south. 

6z is poor ………...the OP I should add

Welcome on board.  I gave up on them years ago, other than general trends, next to useless.

Looks generally cold to me with snow opportunities for some. Look at this little low for Sunday. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_141_1.png

Agree nothing that exciting for the south quite yet. 

I'm talking Nationwide you are talking IMBY - you are in a good position I think 

Nah - this is growing more and more poor by the run.  That HP out west is allowing milder air to seep into any little LP feature  which inturn delivers a mild sector straight to the UK. 

I really wouldnt give FI any confidence on cold weather as its so watered down by the time it gets into a "reliable" time frame. As soon as the charts go below 120 any cold is tame and useless to anyone, including most upland areas too.   Will be lucky to see a sleet shower here tomorrow on that northwesterly, whereas a few days ago the north westerlly was looking semi decent.

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This will be one of those winters to remember for all the wrong reasons.

This should really be in the moaning room, but i think this is sensible analysis and not far from everyones thoughts.

Have they managed to retrospectively establish a connection to SSW for the more frequent cold and snowy winters of the sixties, seventies and early eighties?

6z is so so different from the 0z 

Agreed, after a week or so of relative consistency, even down to about 120hrs, weve moved to a more eratic model output.  This mornings as you say is quite different to the previous.  Something is going on that models are having a hard time nailing, which so it seems wasnt an issue last week.

I only hope its a consequence of something useful to us coldies :)

Obviously this is just the OP and can sit anywhere in the ENS

Looks like a disaster!

Tonight rain to snow event looks like a non event for the SW and as for wintry showers after? - well the models have now upped the temps by 2 or so degrees. 

Yes the GFS Op run is getting worse and worse each run for cold and snow and despite it's cancellation of the easterly - even those potent northerlies are looking less potent more slack and some are becoming north westerly's instead!? Even in FI it looks milder and zonal! So...something isn't right here? Met Office were saying a very cold end to Feb etc.

What the heck is going on? Is the weather punishing us because of BREXIT?

One of the worst OP runs for sometime 

The SSW occurrences are just a sequence that need to be taken into consideration, they do effect the surface, that is without doubt.  Its not the effect that is in question it is the location of effect.  The inevitable breakdown of the PV is the missing piece in the jigsaw, when we are capable of predicting its spread etc, it will always be practically impossible to look beyond a few days with any certainty, other than a general trend.

Some researchers, say they suspect that the more frequent polar vortex breakdowns can be tied to climate change.

While climate change is warming the earth, not all parts of the earth are warming at the same rate; the Arctic warming is twice as fast as the world average. That warming has led to historically low levels of sea ice in the region. The melting sea ice, particularly in an area near the Barents and Kara Seas off Siberia, may be linked to the changes in the polar vortex.

There are some excellent papers with ever increasing correlation of evidence to support these views.  There apparently is also some evidence that winters will become more sever but shorter due to this.  

So when the LR forcast have a good strong SSW and split PV to play with, it is inevitable that somewhere in the NH there will be some extremes of weather, made easier by the known fact that an SSW is likely to effect our neck of the woods enough to predict a probability that it will be colder than normal with the chance of it being very cold.  

I maintain that the outlook is generally cold. It is. That’s objective analysis. 

No severe cold or significant snow looks likely on the Wirral (or Manchester for that matter) anytime soon however. Maybe a trip to Buxton is in order! 

We may see a few flakes tomorrow afternoon. 

Hmmm, I imagine that some were saying similar things this time last year Kieren!