If you look at the list of identified major SSWs (up to 2013) in Table 2 in this paper, you can see that there have been lots of SSWs that haven't been followed by a notable UK cold spell, as well as plenty of notable UK cold spells that weren't preceded by a major SSW:

https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf

Exactly; good to see that evidence is there for all to see and digest.

GFS 06z just underlines how much uncertainty there is. Even the Op and Op v3 are evolving differently from around day 4.

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To be honest David the outlook looks pretty decent for you. 

Glasgow is the one city in the UK where you can currrently look forward to some snow opportunities. 

Euro4 snow accumulation btw (normally very conservative) Wednesday 6z

 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

Thanks Joe.

That demonstrates pretty well what I mean when I say that much of the current output is somewhat reminiscent of the pattern that we had for much of last winter. I remember a number of people in southern areas saying during last January and early-mid February that last winter up to that point had been poor for cold weather, but the story during that period in my region was somewhat different. Obviously the charts are not as good overall for nationwide cold as they were a few days back as I said to Kieren, but I'd rather be seeing the charts that we are seeing rather than a zonal Bartlett pattern or something like that.

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Until we can get out the the pattern where deep cold air spins out the arctic into NE Canada and NE States and floods into the Atlantic powering up the jet I seen no chance of getting the blocking we need to allow cold air into the south of the UK. The present outlook looks not too bad for the north so I can see why there is optimism from that contingent.

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If you look at the list of identified major SSWs (up to 2013) in Table 2 in this paper, you can see that there have been lots of SSWs that haven't been followed by a notable UK cold spell, as well as plenty of notable UK cold spells that weren't preceded by a major SSW:

https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf

Good that people are looking at patterns, mechanisms etc to try and predict a cold spell.

But Personally I have seen so much discussion on SSW's and so much that never bears fruit, it's doing my nut in. There are "99" other ingredients we need for a cold spell.

Latest Ensembles for London are starting to look like Cold Zonality is prevailing. 

Lots peaks and troughs on the 0--5 850 range, with peaks coming at short notice I suspect.

In the immediate term we may see some transitional snow; but luck required.

Nothing about the next 10 days is exciting enough to keep me interested for now.

So frustrated IMBY

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GFS Parallel is still banging the easterly drum but it's looking like the last chance saloon. The models have been truly hopeless recently. Textbook Channel low in fact, buries much of the country.... in FI 

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GFS Parallel is still banging the easterly drum but it's looking like the last chance saloon. The models have been truly hopeless recently.

Cue a primal scream from Roger Daltrey  Strange how that track has been going round in my head this last few days

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The FI winter rolls on, a turd is a turd no matter how hard it’s polished.
If your looking for trends it’s already established- nothing of any significance makes it into the reliable.

Much less spread in the ensembles today. Amazing how everything is much less uncertain once the forecast turns to dross!

 

Cool and wet followed by mildish and wet followed by cool and wet. Roll on April.

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GFS Parallel is still banging the easterly drum but it's looking like the last chance saloon. The models have been truly hopeless recently.

 

Its a belter 

 

The Control is also much better than the OP ……………………………...some hope eh?

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Latest Ensembles for London are starting to look like Cold Zonality is prevailing. 

Lots peaks and troughs on the 0--5 850 range, with peaks coming at short notice I suspect.

In the immediate term we may see some transitional snow; but luck required.

Nothing about the next 10 days is exciting enough to keep me interested for now.

So frustrated IMBY

Cold zonality, the only thing worse than standard zonality, at least for large swathes of the UK south of the Pennines. On the face of it we’re almost at the cusp of another snowless winter come to pass with perhaps a couple more frosts to get excited about before getting back out in the garden.

Cold zonality, the only thing worse than standard zonality, at least for large swathes of the UK south of the Pennines. On the face of it we’re almost at the cusp of another snowless winter come to pass with perhaps a couple more frosts to get excited about before getting back out in the garden.

Not quite, for me - we had about 15 minutes of back-edge snow on Thursday morning before the sun came out. 

 

At the time I thought it was a little appetiser for an upcoming cold spell. If I had known it was winter, I would have appreciated it more! 

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Much less spread in the ensembles today. Amazing how everything is much less uncertain once the forecast turns to dross!

 

Cool and wet followed by mildish and wet followed by cool and wet. Roll on April.

 

Yep. Slow increase in temps shown for the FI period - it is quite possible that this week could be the coldest of the winter - enjoy the snowfall if you see any! Still time for something interesting to develop perhaps buy mid Feb.

I'm in sunnier climes in March so for me running out of time for a below avge cold spell

Whilst GFS watching is all well and good, one has to remind oneself that its Op is now the 5th best of all the models on current stats at T+144 (or second worse, depending upon your view).

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Whilst GFS watching is all well and good, one has to remind oneself that its Op is now the 5th best of all the models on current stats at T+144 (or second worse, depending upon your view).

So where does the parallel run stand in terms of reliability? Infront or behind the Op run?

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So where does the parallel run stand in terms of reliability? Infront or behind the Op run?

Actually thanks for that - I'd not included the Para. So GFS OP is actually 6th, with Para in 4th. 

EDIT: Should add those are for the 00z runs.

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I do think that the research has shown how certain natural cycles favour certain long wave patterns in the northern hemisphere, i.e. Where the main upper troughs and ridges tend to be located. But that's only really about probabilities again, not certainties - and it certainly doesn't deal with the inherent chaos of short wave developments.

People mustn't misinterpret and misunderstand the signals. Nobody has said the SSW will deliver cold and the long-range forecasts always talk of probabilities and not certainties.  The prediction was that the patterns favoured a colder end to the winter but that doesn't exclude a normal or mild February.

 

Not certain, but SSW events being followed by exceptionally cold synoptics have about a 50% chance of occurring? That would keep any correlation value pretty neutral, and most likely around the same for the same synoptics setting up without being preceded by a SSW event. Nonetheless, perhaps the SSW did have influence on this month of January so far, but not in the way we might think. The sheer persistence of that displaced Azores high in the NE Atlantic since before Christmas is exceptional in itself and possibly without precedent for the time of year, at least in our lifetimes.  

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Period 27 to 31 Jan looking potentially severe for much of Scotland with t850s between -5 and -10 and frequent precipitation spikes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49565&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw= 

Mid-January last year was a similar pattern and there were serious problems from snowfall in areas with elevation 100 m or more.


Still too far off to be certain though.

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The mood in here could probably be summed up as follows:

‘Models show a very cold spell may happen. Hurrah because the models always tell of the future’.

‘Models are changing. How utterly unreliable they are! I will never, ever believe anything they say, ever again...’

‘Models show no sign of prolonged cold. That’s it we’ve had our last shot at winter and that’s it for this year, because the models always tell of the future....’

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Period 27 to 31 Jan looking potentially severe for much of Scotland with t850s between -5 and -10 and frequent precipitation spikes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49565&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=

Mid-January last year was a similar pattern and there were serious problems from snowfall in areas with elevation 100 m or more.


Still too far off to be certain though.

Yes I think it looks quite exciting for Scotland, especially for the west.

Plenty of opportunities over the next 2 weeks I think.

For England and Wales - I understand the lack of excitement for now. 

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