Thankfully it's only one run!! But even the weather is punishing the UK due to BREXIT and our Political Turmoil!! -0 The weather hates us!

If you look at the list of identified major SSWs (up to 2013) in Table 2 in this paper, you can see that there have been lots of SSWs that haven't been followed by a notable UK cold spell, as well as plenty of notable UK cold spells that weren't preceded by a major SSW:

https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf

Story of this whole winter to be honest. Got a decent air frost last night even on the coast, but this is all I can hope for this season in the UK and I’m resigned to that now. Looking forward to some spring warmth now. I’ll get my snow fix in the Alps in a few weeks but here? Forget it.

Should be called LRG's. Long Range Guesses. They are not worth the paper calling them forecasts.

Yes, and even the 6z offers some snow opportunities later next week, including a heavy snow event for the south in FI on the 31st.

Bear in mind that most people - oddly enough - don't like cold and snow. So on a national level, maybe Britain is being rewarded!

It's not looking as good as it did for a time 3-4 days ago granted, but it is not in any way "pretty awful", IMHO. It depends upon where one happens to be. From what I can see of what is being suggested by the GFS and ECM op runs, the pattern they are suggesting is not at all far off the one that dominated much of last winter; a mostly NW-SE pattern which will always be better for northern areas in terms of wintry weather and less so for the south. We had a NW airstream for almost a week last January which gave my area our largest amount of snow of last winter prior to the arrival of the Beast at the end of February.

If there is one thing the wild swings in the output over the past few days should have made clear to everyone, it is that all output for more than a few days ahead is very prone to changes at the moment. Therefore I think that it would be more than a tad premature for anyone to write off what remains of this meteorogical winter at this moment in time, given the amount of flux there seems to be in the output.

To be honest David the outlook looks pretty decent for you. 

Glasgow is the one city in the UK where you can currrently look forward to some snow opportunities. 

Euro4 snow accumulation btw (normally very conservative) Wednesday 6z

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Exactly; good to see that evidence is there for all to see and digest.

GFS 06z just underlines how much uncertainty there is. Even the Op and Op v3 are evolving differently from around day 4.

Thanks Joe.

That demonstrates pretty well what I mean when I say that much of the current output is somewhat reminiscent of the pattern that we had for much of last winter. I remember a number of people in southern areas saying during last January and early-mid February that last winter up to that point had been poor for cold weather, but the story during that period in my region was somewhat different. Obviously the charts are not as good overall for nationwide cold as they were a few days back as I said to Kieren, but I'd rather be seeing the charts that we are seeing rather than a zonal Bartlett pattern or something like that.

Until we can get out the the pattern where deep cold air spins out the arctic into NE Canada and NE States and floods into the Atlantic powering up the jet I seen no chance of getting the blocking we need to allow cold air into the south of the UK. The present outlook looks not too bad for the north so I can see why there is optimism from that contingent.

Good that people are looking at patterns, mechanisms etc to try and predict a cold spell.

But Personally I have seen so much discussion on SSW's and so much that never bears fruit, it's doing my nut in. There are "99" other ingredients we need for a cold spell.

Latest Ensembles for London are starting to look like Cold Zonality is prevailing. 

Lots peaks and troughs on the 0--5 850 range, with peaks coming at short notice I suspect.

In the immediate term we may see some transitional snow; but luck required.

Nothing about the next 10 days is exciting enough to keep me interested for now.

So frustrated IMBY

GFS Parallel is still banging the easterly drum but it's looking like the last chance saloon. The models have been truly hopeless recently. Textbook Channel low in fact, buries much of the country.... in FI 

Cue a primal scream from Roger Daltrey  Strange how that track has been going round in my head this last few days

If your looking for trends it’s already established- nothing of any significance makes it into the reliable.

Much less spread in the ensembles today. Amazing how everything is much less uncertain once the forecast turns to dross!

Cool and wet followed by mildish and wet followed by cool and wet. Roll on April.

Its a belter 

The Control is also much better than the OP ……………………………...some hope eh?

Not quite, for me - we had about 15 minutes of back-edge snow on Thursday morning before the sun came out. 

At the time I thought it was a little appetiser for an upcoming cold spell. If I had known it was winter, I would have appreciated it more! 

Yep. Slow increase in temps shown for the FI period - it is quite possible that this week could be the coldest of the winter - enjoy the snowfall if you see any! Still time for something interesting to develop perhaps buy mid Feb.

I'm in sunnier climes in March so for me running out of time for a below avge cold spell

Whilst GFS watching is all well and good, one has to remind oneself that its Op is now the 5th best of all the models on current stats at T+144 (or second worse, depending upon your view).

So where does the parallel run stand in terms of reliability? Infront or behind the Op run?