I think SSWs will also come to be seen as a very blunt forecasting tool too. 

Quite agree Brian. There's the other 99 important ingredients needed too.

It's a little like the early 00s when Benfield Hazzard and the Met were touting the May N Atlantic SST profile. Despite what anyone else may say, that correlation has proved to be of limited value. I think SSWs will also come to be seen as a very blunt forecasting tool too. 

Well, clearly an SSW has a massive impact on the hemispheric winter pattern. The issue is for the British Isles - we can still get unlucky following an SSW, if the pieces do not fall in favourable locations.

The classic winter of 2010 occurred I believe, because the vortex displaced over to the eastern side of the Pole (relative to us). We are always scuppered if CONUS turns bitter and the vortex lobe is in Canada. My question is why the vortex so prefers CONUS to Asia - there must be drivers which are responsible for that. If only we could stick a giant pin in the Canadian vortex to pop it like the pustule it is, all would be fine.

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It's a little like the early 00s when Benfield Hazzard and the Met were touting the May N Atlantic SST profile. Despite what anyone else may say, that correlation has proved to be of limited value. I think SSWs will also come to be seen as a very blunt forecasting tool too. 

I remember that 

Of course every element is a piece of the jigsaw puzzle. The trick is to work out how the pieces fit together, particularly when the pieces keep changing and you don’t know how they all fit together....

To be fair the Met Office has been very measured in its forecasts.

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It's a little like the early 00s when Benfield Hazzard and the Met were touting the May N Atlantic SST profile. Despite what anyone else may say, that correlation has proved to be of limited value. I think SSWs will also come to be seen as a very blunt forecasting tool too. 

Not just SSW Brian, you can add our limited knowledge on teleconnections to the list. 

At the end if the day the biggest factors for our neck of the woods are the Azores high and the placement of the jet coming out of the states. Neither of these can be predicted all that well in advance and for all our advancement in predicting the long wave pattern for our tiny island surrounded by a warm ocean will always prove to be a a big ask in getting favourable synoptics to these shores.

Just looked at latest Arpege - looks like tomorrow's snow is confined to high Pennines and uplands northwards. Even the Welsh hills miss out.

I am talking about the main band of precipitation - there is still the chance of snow showers following through.

The UK really is the worst location at its latitude in the northern hemisphere, if it is winter snow you like. We may get some snow in the spring however

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BBC breakfast weather bullish about next week being cold and having snow for more of us than this coming week.
February could still turn out to be a very cold wintry month. The NWP is predicting this.
Just chill out everyone!

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Yes. A break of a week NWP watching as standard winter fare is likely to continue for the foreseeable!

 

BBC breakfast weather bullish about next week being cold and having snow for more of us than this coming week.
February could still turn out to be a very cold wintry month. The NWP is predicting this.
Just chill out everyone!

It was a week ago for this week.

GFS 6z has already downgraded next Saturday. What we want (i.e. proper winter with lowland snow) will never reach the reliable. I am not going to visit the models for at least another week either. I am sick of future promise with zero delivery.

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Not just SSW Brian, you can add our limited knowledge on teleconnections to the list. 

At the end if the day the biggest factors for our neck of the woods are the Azores high and the placement of the jet coming out of the states. Neither of these can be predicted all that well in advance and for all our advancement in predicting the long wave pattern for our tiny island surrounded by a warm ocean will always prove to be a a big ask in getting favourable synoptics to these shores.

I do think that the research has shown how certain natural cycles favour certain long wave patterns in the northern hemisphere, i.e. Where the main upper troughs and ridges tend to be located. But that's only really about probabilities again, not certainties - and it certainly doesn't deal with the inherent chaos of short wave developments.

People mustn't misinterpret and misunderstand the signals. Nobody has said the SSW will deliver cold and the long-range forecasts always talk of probabilities and not certainties.  The prediction was that the patterns favoured a colder end to the winter but that doesn't exclude a normal or mild February.

 

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GFS 6z has already downgraded next Saturday. What we want (i.e. proper winter with lowland snow) will never reach the reliable. I am not going to visit the models for at least another week either. I am sick of future promise with zero delivery.

It's just one run and Saturday is T+120, which I think you said was FI....

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It was a week ago for this week.

I agree that the NWP has been teasing us with cold output all winter long in the post 200 hours charts.

GEFS look pretty solid for cold post Fri/Sat warm blip for both north and south UK albeit coldest in the north. 

I am more confident now of the NWP being right about cold weather post 144 than at anytime this winter. Today is the first time this winter I have been posting in the MO thread. There is certainly variations between models in the 00z runs for next week but there always is at such long range. But they all show cold.

I think that we can trust the NWP more now and that winter will set in next weekend!  

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next Saturday starts off mild for the south:

 

No it doesn't.  The chart shows something that alludes to that happening, it's not a fact.  Show the same scenario again next Saturday and then we can say its mild in the south. 

 

GFS 6z has already downgraded next Saturday. What we want (i.e. proper winter with lowland snow) will never reach the reliable. I am not going to visit the models for at least another week either. I am sick of future promise with zero delivery.

6z is poor ………...the OP I should add

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Gavs video a few days ago showed NW Europe below average for a at least two weeks - starting at the end of Feb , isn't the EC46 out tonight? be interesting to see what's going on with that .

Have to say 'if' we get nothing this Winter my interest in LRF's will have gone and will show what I have thought for a long time they are purely guess work and that no one or any super computer for that matter  can predict what the atmosphere can and will do . 

Welcome on board.  I gave up on them years ago, other than general trends, next to useless.

 

6z is poor ………...the OP I should add

Looks generally cold to me with snow opportunities for some. Look at this little low for Sunday. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_141_1.png

Agree nothing that exciting for the south quite yet. 

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Looks generally cold to me with snow opportunities for some. Look at this little low for Sunday. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_141_1.png

Agree nothing that exciting for the south quite yet. 

I'm talking Nationwide you are talking IMBY - you are in a good position I think 

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Looks generally cold to me with snow opportunities for some. Look at this little low for Sunday. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_141_1.png

Agree nothing that exciting for the south quite yet. 

 

Nah - this is growing more and more poor by the run.  That HP out west is allowing milder air to seep into any little LP feature  which inturn delivers a mild sector straight to the UK. 

 

I really wouldnt give FI any confidence on cold weather as its so watered down by the time it gets into a "reliable" time frame. As soon as the charts go below 120 any cold is tame and useless to anyone, including most upland areas too.   Will be lucky to see a sleet shower here tomorrow on that northwesterly, whereas a few days ago the north westerlly was looking semi decent.

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This will be one of those winters to remember for all the wrong reasons.

This should really be in the moaning room, but i think this is sensible analysis and not far from everyones thoughts.

 

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It's a little like the early 00s when Benfield Hazzard and the Met were touting the May N Atlantic SST profile. Despite what anyone else may say, that correlation has proved to be of limited value. I think SSWs will also come to be seen as a very blunt forecasting tool too. 

Have they managed to retrospectively establish a connection to SSW for the more frequent cold and snowy winters of the sixties, seventies and early eighties?

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6z is so so different from the 0z 

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