Didn’t somthing similar happen last December 17 witch buried most of the central belt of the country?

Am I the only one that likes the look of UKMO this eve?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Yup

This weekend is emerging as the next candidate for wintry focus.

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The GFS, ICON, and GEM look good I think.  But the UKMO is throwing the Mocker ball at their forecasts for UK weather.

Seeing what they are showing, and when they expect us to get this cold and snowy weather maybe we can get some of this!.

Not getting hung up on this at all.  If it is cold and snowy away from where I am, I am still happy.

Tuesday and Wednesday and Wednesday night look very cold with chance of wintry showers and cold NW winds.

What happens on Friday to Wednesday January 25th to January 30th is up for grabs.

-5 to -8 at 850 hPa level, and Deep Low Pressure tracking from the NW to East SE in the UK- is good.

As we get closer to said events- it is the model outputs that matter heyy....

Taking my time every day, looks great fun to forecast UK weather.  I need 7 days more wishful hopecasting...

They looking good, but the UKMO 12z is not on BOARD.  If today's ECMWF supports the GEM, GFS, ICON and ARPEGE then I am with them.

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144 - onwards is looking very snowy -nation wide. Which is unusual on a northwesterly. Very complicated trough delivering lots of precip features which lots of heavy frontal snow for everyone.

Question is, will it be there tonight?/

The models are often guilty of over egging these cold zonal set-ups and nearer the time, uppers are greatly modified and that large yellow blob to the bottom left ends up being much closer come the day. 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Yup

This weekend is emerging as the next candidate for wintry focus.

If it plays out like that it's rain because it's developed within a flow that is too warm for snow.

 

The models are often guilty of over egging these cold zonal set-ups and nearer the time, uppers are greatly modified and that large yellow blob to the bottom left ends up being much closer come the day. 

Absolutely right. 

 

The models are often guilty of over egging these cold zonal set-ups and nearer the time, uppers are greatly modified and that large yellow blob to the bottom left ends up being much closer come the day. 

yes cool/ cold zonality offers little for lowland England and Wales though I do suspect the Northern contingent will be licking their lips. 

NAO as expected going the wrong way

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html  

Unsurprisingly that is good representation of the GFS output.

The 12z ECM maintains the colder than average unsettled outlook so far in the run with the milder blip on Friday. Good agreements on the general pattern to day 6 now but again whether it is cold enough for widespread wintry weather is a different matter. Good for NW locations, especially with elevation.

 

Absolutely right. 

Partially right

I think someone referenced Jan 2015 for a rain to snow event coming down from the North West - that wasn't dissimilar to the current set up (I think, memory may well be failing me) and delivered snow to Kent (and a decent amount too!).  I do agree that GFS will overegg snow in this type of setup although worth mentioning it may just be modelling sleet or wet snow rather than proper falling and settling stuff.

It's always going to be touch and go for snow down here in an unsettled flow with LPs rolling down from the North but it can and does happen. Not unheard of for us to get snow showers on a NW'ly either but takes a bit of doing usually.

Back at what the models are showing and it's copy and paste for the GFS ens - generally chilly or cold after the milder blip with possibility of falling snow just about anywhere at times. There's enough mild sectors in the individual ens to suggest that your expected roadblocks may well materialise so that the below average to the end line becomes more snakelike than is shown.

Looking at the GFS la la land postage stamps and there's a bit more northern blocking set ups evident but a cluster of more traditionally zonal stuff too so no real clues as likely weather. I'd favour something similar to what we have now, with a low chance of HP being drawn to somewhere helpful, with the lowest likelihood reserved for a lengthy (5+ days) normal zonal spell (rather than the chilly/cold set up we have now). That's more because I like cold and tend to optimistic than anything though so others may well have the balance arranged differently!

Putting that theory to the test. A week ago (Monday 12z GFS) the models had these uppers for tonight:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/archives/2019011412/180-7UK.GIF?

It appears that they will be a little colder than that when the time comes. It often goes in the milder direction but not always and you cannot conclude that it will happen as a general. It hasn’t in this case and may not in the next. Each situation needs to be viewed with the acceptance that the situation may change as the time approaches, but how that changes is not set in stone nor the same for each scenario.

I accept that Doc, but I know from experience that if this comes to pass -

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1981.gif

Then temps will be more like 4-5 in central areas than this -

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19817.gif

 

I accept that Doc, but I know from experience that if this comes to pass -

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1981.gif

Then temps will be more like 4-5 in central areas than this -

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19817.gif

 

Looking like Spring may be closer than we think on tonight’s ensembles!

With the exception of the blip on Fri/Saturday the mean is below the long term average throughout the run?

Am I the only one that likes the look of UKMO this eve?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Here are the 850s to go with it.  To me, its more of the same gruel, with the prospect of a piece of cardboard perhaps with some low budget jam smeared on it promised in 10 days time.  We are stuck in a SSW induced rut of a trough of low pressure. We are frustratingly the right side of the jet, but in the wrong place in relation to its curvature to import the cold north easters that are required to bring lowland snow. 

Things may change in February, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Great ECM run for the North/North West, a generally wintry outlook 

God awful ECM rolling out. The GFS is the best of the set-up, the ECM shows the ACTUAL set-up.