Actually thanks for that - I'd not included the Para. So GFS OP is actually 6th, with Para in 4th. 

EDIT: Should add those are for the 00z runs.

Not certain, but SSW events being followed by exceptionally cold synoptics have about a 50% chance of occurring? That would keep any correlation value pretty neutral, and most likely around the same for the same synoptics setting up without being preceded by a SSW event. Nonetheless, perhaps the SSW did have influence on this month of January so far, but not in the way we might think. The sheer persistence of that displaced Azores high in the NE Atlantic since before Christmas is exceptional in itself and possibly without precedent for the time of year, at least in our lifetimes.  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49565&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw= 

Mid-January last year was a similar pattern and there were serious problems from snowfall in areas with elevation 100 m or more.

Still too far off to be certain though.

The mood in here could probably be summed up as follows:

‘Models show a very cold spell may happen. Hurrah because the models always tell of the future’.

‘Models are changing. How utterly unreliable they are! I will never, ever believe anything they say, ever again...’

‘Models show no sign of prolonged cold. That’s it we’ve had our last shot at winter and that’s it for this year, because the models always tell of the future....’

Yes I think it looks quite exciting for Scotland, especially for the west.

Plenty of opportunities over the next 2 weeks I think.

For England and Wales - I understand the lack of excitement for now. 

Dispite a slight knee jerk reaction to the output yesterday and demise of the easterlies by the end of the working week I am convinced we will see a prolonged period of cold/very cold wintry weather to come. My money would be on the gfsp synoptic development, with high pressure to the east building over the top of a sinking trough and then strengthening heights to our north ushering in frigid continental Arctic air.

There's perhaps a degree difference (if that) in the 850's between the Ens for East Kilbride and the Ens for Manchester. If people are getting giddy about the West Scotland prospects, then they should expand that into Northern England, too.

I'm not particularly hopeful we'll get anything worth getting excited over, but there've been a number of instances over the years where a forecasted cold spell has failed to come off, but a week or so later a different cold spell seemingly comes out of nowhere (the reality is that it was showing in the models all along, but a combination of a renewed distrust over the models, the actual cold spell not being as headline-grabbing as the initial 'fail', and often not impacting the S/SE, means it's overlooked)

Good points Saint.

We might see something over the next fortnight or so - lots of NW'ly incursions are forecast. Cold 850's and a light drift off the Irish Sea could result in a surprise or two, with a bit of luck.

We'll see - certainly no exceptional cold in the outlook.

It would fall in line with previous flip/flops we have seen yrs gone by.

NW winds don't bring anything east of the pennines either so from a snow point if view it's a fail there to.

The Leeds & Sheffield Ens are showing no shortage of ppn.

This theme continues on the 12z GFS op so far.

12z different again , keener on keeping a cold NWly flow by the looks 

Neither location is particularly east either with both being very central, and sitting towards the much lower south pennine area.

Will be interesting to see this develop.

Sometimes these boundary clashes can really deliver , I have missed some in the past but also had a really good dump

Quite a good 12z from GFS …..…….recovered from the pants of 6z 

Question is, will it be there tonight?/

Nailed on!!

You've changed your tune. 

I agree btw.  

Nice to see a more wintry 12z op run, but the potential was already there, and little has changed. 

Plenty of snow opportunities, especially for the north.

yeh its funny what a cup of tea and a walk can do for your soul.

Serioulsy though.  Its odd how slight changes here or there can change the perception of a chart etc.  Theres an ounce more hope on the latest run.  The beasterly isnt happening.  But there still is quite alot of potential.  Only problem is, the type of charts that are being presented are classic marginal events, so this wont be the end of the heart ache,

🤣

and this virtual reality winter just keeps on giving ...