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Interesting on the 6z today/ I realise its one run, but on this run we see HP cells coming through from US and loading up a midatlantic block with the NAO then going seemingly strongly negative, with the hint of the pressure then slowly migrating further north at the end of the run. This is not an isolated trend, recent runs have hinted at something like this developing. I realise this doesnt get us to a wintry conclusion, but its miles ahead of what we usually see.What an odd autumn we are having compared to recent years, Frost and potential wintry synoptics before autumn is half way through, usually its December before we see things like this.
Interesting on the 6z today/
I realise its one run, but on this run we see HP cells coming through from US and loading up a midatlantic block with the NAO then going seemingly strongly negative, with the hint of the pressure then slowly migrating further north at the end of the run.
This is not an isolated trend, recent runs have hinted at something like this developing.
I realise this doesnt get us to a wintry conclusion, but its miles ahead of what we usually see.
What an odd autumn we are having compared to recent years, Frost and potential wintry synoptics before autumn is half way through, usually its December before we see things like this.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png?cb=522
A 1 on the snow row for London around the 24th October!!!!
Probably gone on the next one
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png?cb=522 A 1 on the snow row for London around the 24th October!!!!Probably gone on the next one
No snow row on the 00Z but it ends with a massive northerly plunge and the whole country below -5C at 850mb.
Up to 7 on the Inverness ensemble this morning. Perhaps worth keeping an eye on?
I think so, that Mid atlantic Ridge is starting to become a bit of a theme for the latter par of the run. this mornings 00z run seems even stronger, with north west europe slowly entering the freezer.
Meantime in the near term the weekends rain looks worrying for some particularly the Welsh valleys upward of 150mm for some. could be very noteworthy
Yes, you’re right and this is still the biggest issue currently, especially for parts of Wales.
On a different topic, and deep in FI, I see that the snow row number on the “Inverness” GEFS data is up to 14 towards the end of the set.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850inverness0.png?cb
Yes, you’re right and this is still the biggest issue currently, especially for parts of Wales. On a different topic, and deep in FI, I see that the snow row number on the “Inverness” GEFS data is up to 14 towards the end of the set.https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850inverness0.png?cb
Its started
Meanwhile there is some consistency out to a week or so. Beyond that its normal chaos
Its started Meanwhile there is some consistency out to a week or so. Beyond that its normal chaos
It started weeks ago (in the model output).
I‘m sure you’ll get a "1” on the snow row by sometime in mid-January so don’t panic yet.
Edit: On the subject of consistency the value has been updated to 13 for Inverness on the latest run.
Mild air still being pumped up from the SW for the next week according to GFS and ECM, with the occasional front coming through - Fax chart has this trailing around the far SE s we may get a bit more rain down here than we're used to.
GFS has big cold plunge for Sun 28th but don't get too excited.
Not really looked all that much lately but from where I looked a few days back GFS seems to have trended more settled and warmer (down here) in the mid to long term, compared to what it had been showing.
Rubbish for my CET guess but good news in terms of keeping the heating off, assuming GFS has things right
Edit: should have said, looking at the Ens, rather than the op!
Always good to see the -8s returning - even it is only briefly on this run.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=324&mode=1
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png?cb=322
A 2 on the snow row at the end of the month now!
Next week's cold plunge being shifted a little further east by GFS and to a lesser extent by ECM ... then a little more east ... sounds familiar. Anyway, it's too early to enjoy really cold weather here.
But it's interesting to see the first extensive patch of sub-zero means across Scandinavia and Russia
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4
One thing of note is the lack of rainfall spikes UK wide right out to the start of Nov...
Indeed - high pressure firmly in control for the foreseeable - at least until the next run.
A whole week and we haven't even filled one page of the MO thread. Not much action around. An early easterly at the end of the 00Z run cooling things down across Europe.
A fantastic spell of autumn weather in prospect, though. Just about perfect for most of the UK, apart from daytime temps being a couple of degrees too high, perhaps.
A cool, dry and hopefully misty Halloween would be an absolute treat.