Thought I'd stick the ens up - Op a warm outlier, with a majority going with a continuation of the chilly to cold weather. Based purely on the GFS ens set the most likely outcome is for colder weather to win, in a mostly blocked scenario. There's a lower chance of less cold weather as shown by the scatter from circa 24-26th November and thereafter and a small chance of it turning milder than average. Down south at least there's not a strong signal for rain although it won't be universally dry.

If the stragglers start turning into a solid cluster then confidence in a milder solution will grow, but at the moment it's not the favoured outcome. 

Whether the ECM Op picks a colder or milder option in its FI run later on is not massively relevant - whether the Ens support the Op is more relevant and if the ens are split, what the clusters are like.

I find life a little more balanced if I look at the ens before the Op - less highs/lows that way

Should just mention I'm far from convinced we're going to get a decent cold spell out of this set up (I/e one with near ice days and snow) but it remains possible whilst the models support a set up that can bring decent cold to our shores

ECM still not interested in long-term cold

A few cold days then it eases away

good, I could do without cranking the heating up for too long.

broad scale signals suggest otherwise however:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

AO an important factor as well as NAO when it comes to the bigger picture & what might affect us longer term. 

ECM looks very good at 168h for a NE attack lets see

Indeed.

How it's possible to look at that ECM 168 chart and say it's not a set up that's promising for cold weather is a bit baffling. The NH view shows a split PV with blocking either side of the pole and a big cold pool over Russian and Eastern Europe. 

If the block stays put and/or reinvigorates (and up to T168 it's not exactly running away from the virtually non existent Atlantic) then it's a very promising set up indeed for longer term cold.

May not happen of course as it's FI territory but as you say interesting overall if you like colder weather

Locking in 2 mins.