One thing to keep in mind is the lack of sea ice over the Kara at the moment. Because of this the GFS is probably underestimating the uppers by a few degrees. To clarify, by the time those north easterlies arrive (or if they arrive) they will probably be slightly colder than implied

 

 

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The ECM weeklies which updated at the beginning of the week show the cold air hanging around certainly for a couple of weeks

Signals naturally weeker by week 4 but maybe a bit closer to average

Precipitation looks to be below average for 2 and 3 by week 4 it may become a bit wetter in the far west IF lower pressure gets closer by still drier than average for the majority

ICON 12z following ECM 00z and UKMO 00z extended by going SE'ly at t168

ICON 12z following ECM 00z and UKMO 00z extended by going SE'ly at t168

 

Southerly tracking lows is encouraging; just got to hope that HLB to our NW/N is stable enough to be a recurring theme over the next couple of months 

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Just putting this out there, given silly stories in newspapers and hyped chatter on Twitter about next week's cold weather.

Left image: next week's cold.
Right image: 'beast from the east' cold last February.

Clearly, next week's cold is absolutely nowhere near. That is all. pic.twitter.com/J2ExdOLWaL

— Liam Dutton - Weatherman (@liamdutton) November 16, 2018

GFS going a similar way to the beeb last night with low pressure to our west turning things less cold. If correct it was a good call from them.

It appears the prospects for deeper cold towards months end are starting to unravel a bit with the last few rounds of data. It’s still possible that the HLB will stick around but it looks increasingly likely the heights will drain away keeping the Euro trough and coldest air to our east (IMO). Still too early to call though.

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GFS proving plenty can conspire against the UK to get cold can it find a way from here 252h? 

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This is one hell of a change in 6hrs

12z

06z

GFS proving plenty can conspire against the UK to get cold can it find a way from here 252h? 

 

No it can't , I would say its 50/50 at the moment whether the UK sees a significant cold spell at the end of the month.  let's see what the ECM brings its 240h mean this morning looked very good so still hope.

 

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This is one hell of a change in 6hrs

12z

06z

Yes I saw that we went from a raw easterly with -8 uppers to a mild South westerly with +8 uppers....

🤔

Is this cold spell ending before it's even started or is it me? Only Op run on 25th...that would be one heck of a downgrade of the 12z run verifies.

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GFS completely different might well change back interesting and am certain it won’t look the same in 6 hours - better than boring SW consistently showing

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0 

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GFS completely different might well change back interesting and am certain it won’t look the same in 6 hours - better than boring SW consistently showing

 

Yes ..I think they want to break the block down quicker on the 12z run.  But at least any milder weather will be short lived and plus one has to remember it's November only so ...it's not be all end all. We still have winter. My guess is that it may turn less cold early December before  becoming blocked again. The Nao and AO are both negative too so I can't see any return to zonality.

Greetings from Budapest 7 days with no rain or drizzle.etc daytime temps of 16 to 17c. Crazy. All change app  though!

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http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0 

 

still a nice cluster showing a cool down around 25th - interesting model watching

 

 

Yes ..I think they want to break the block down quicker on the 12z run.  But at least any milder weather will be short lived and plus one has to remember it's November only so ...it's not be all end all. We still have winter. My guess is that it may turn less cold early December before  becoming blocked again. The Nao and AO are both negative too so I can't see any return to zonality.

Greetings from Budapest 7 days with no rain or drizzle.etc daytime temps of 16 to 17c. Crazy. All change app  though!

 

guess or because what the met office say?!!

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0 

 

 

Yes plenty of fun and games in the ensembles the Op was just about the worst outcome. 

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Yes I saw that we went from a raw easterly with -8 uppers to a mild South westerly with +8 uppers....

🤔

Is this cold spell ending before it's even started or is it me? Only Op run on 25th...that would be one heck of a downgrade of the 12z run verifies.

 

You can't really talk about "downgrades" when deep cold was only ever shown on the shores of la-la land at 240hrs+. It's going to cool down significantly from the beginning of next week. After next weekend, nobody really knows. The Met think it will continue cool, the Beeb think it will warm up. So expect models to waver between both options for a while yet.

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ECM 12z depicting a 3 day cool snap with less chilly air edging in at 144 as then low anchors off Biscay/ SW approaches~:

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ECM still not interested in long-term cold

A few cold days then it eases away