Looking at the GFS for both 18z and 00z it continues the cold theme generally to the end of the run. Next week we all cool down with showers falling as a wintery mix of hail sleet and wet snow above 200m. It will feel raw in the wind.
After that temperatures look like raising slightly still with air frosts at night before heading into a colder spell....
Apart from 2010 this is a promising start to the winter with any real cold looking like it may coincide with December.

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Aside from the occasional shameless ramp, there is plenty of good analysis and rational thought in here as usual. A very interesting spell coming up with some highly unusual synoptics. With this kind of pattern often repeating, I think are in for an interesting season of model watching.

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The real action as we head towards the end of the month is certainly a little further to our east on the model output this morning but things are certainly starting off on an interesting note this winter.  It certainly wouldn't need much to tap into this early season cold to our east.  Perhaps it marks the start of a new frostier relationship with our European neighbours to the east! Here is the GEM at T240.

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No more than chilly in the reliable time frame, as I pointed out a few days ago, and although the blue colours get to us by the end of the month, that's still FI.

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Just seen the 00z GFS - is it safe to mention 1962 yet .... 😱😱😀

Funningly enough I mentioned something along those lines to Gav P last week.😜

All roads continue to point to a cold and possibly wintry nirvana towards the months end/early December, it’s still uncertain just whereabouts the block will end up at its final destination but colder conditions are now in the bag IMO, how cold and wintry is yet to be confirmed. Great model watching for sure.

Looking good this morning. Any cold for us right now is generally too early. Deep cold is forecasted to get entrenched over Europe. Again needing some luck we then need the synoptics to bring it here.
We still seem to be heading in the right direction, with variations.

Looking good this morning. Any cold for us right now is generally too early. Deep cold is forecasted to get entrenched over Europe. Again needing some luck we then need the synoptics to bring it here.
We still seem to be heading in the right direction, with variations.

Indeed . And interesting how the BBC have not picked up on this...? In their monthly outlook.  Fro. 26th November then never even mention cold or frost let alone snow.

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ECM and UKMO extended are reasonably close this morning with both going for more of a southeasterly

 

GFS and GEM are also reasonably close both go for an easterly

Looking at the latest Met Office fax charts:  http://www.sailingweatheronline.com/old/bracknell_all_highres.htm what a waste of what would be the perfect set up in late January or into February. What's the betting that come deep winter we'll never get to experience those synoptics again.

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Looking at the latest Met Office fax charts:  http://www.sailingweatheronline.com/old/bracknell_all_highres.htm what a waste of what would be the perfect set up in late January or into February. What's the betting that come deep winter we'll never get to experience those synoptics again.

It is not a waste if the PV can remain disrupted for the next few weeks.

It is a waste, if the PV regroups in its normal location and we end up with a positive NAO winter.

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ECM 00Z certainly puts Russia into the freezer by the end of the run, but the spoiler ridge down into the Balkans prevents it from heading our way. If the floodgates did open then we'd know about it, though!

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Permission to enjoy the GFS run or is someone going to say
1. Not that cold
2. It unlikely
3. 6z is inaccurate?
Well I am enjoying it

Permission to enjoy the GFS run or is someone going to say
1. Not that cold
2. It unlikely
3. 6z is inaccurate?
Well I am enjoying it

GFS 6Z is unbelievably good for coldies. But we want to see ECM singing from the same hymn sheet before banking it.

But this is mad:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0&carte=1

 

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GFS 6Z is unbelievably good for coldies. But we want to see ECM singing from the same hymn sheet before banking it.

But this is mad:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0&carte=1

 

Looks rather December 2010-esque to me!

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GFS 6Z is unbelievably good for coldies. But we want to see ECM singing from the same hymn sheet before banking it.

But this is mad:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0&carte=1

 

 

not banking just enjoying - great to see these charts even if they don’t happen. Makes it more enjoyable even if gone on next run- this one is cold, snowy and potentially pattern getting set

 

GFS 6Z is unbelievably good for coldies. But we want to see ECM singing from the same hymn sheet before banking it.

But this is mad:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0&carte=1

 

That looks like February 1895.

 

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GFS 06z ensemble mean for Day 8:

 

The spreads suggest good agreement on a high pressure cell around Iceland/Greenland but a large uncertainty NNW of Norway towards Greenland.

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as  you say  the  models are mind blowing just wait when the papers get on board!!

 

 

not banking just enjoying - great to see these charts even if they don’t happen. Makes it more enjoyable even if gone on next run- this one is cold, snowy and potentially pattern getting set

 

GFS 6Z is unbelievably good for coldies. But we want to see ECM singing from the same hymn sheet before banking it.

But this is mad:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0&carte=1

 

 

That would kick start the ski season in parts of the Alps. A good old Genoa Low!!   

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That would kick start the ski season in parts of the Alps. A good old Genoa Low!!   

Good for us too. Everything always looks more solid when there's low pressure in the Med area to support the blocking.

And thank goodness we're getting these synoptics now rather than in February, when they'd just be greeted with posts of 'drip drip' and 'seen it all before/sun's getting too strong'.

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