“Inverness” snow row now on 22 as well https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850inverness0.png?cb=569

There’s a small chance that the showers here, if we get any, next weekend may be a little wintry although this would more likely with elevation. Perhaps only a one or two day flirtation with colder conditions but more interesting than nothing. 

Perhaps this will be winter? 

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“Inverness” snow row now on 22 as well https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850inverness0.png?cb=569

There’s a small chance that the showers here, if we get any, next weekend may be a little wintry although this would more likely with elevation. Perhaps only a one or two day flirtation with colder conditions but more interesting than nothing. 

Perhaps this will be winter? 

There looks to be a reasonable chance of significant snowfall across the ranges of Scotland next weekend and possibly areas such as the NYMs.

Maybe enough to get the ski resorts open?

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There looks to be a reasonable chance of significant snowfall across the ranges of Scotland next weekend and possibly areas such as the NYMs.

Maybe enough to get the ski resorts open?

Enough to make them look white but only to a superficial level as there is no base (and in Cairngorm’s case no funicular!) 

I suspect the majority would be gone in a few days beyond the weekend.

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Hang on a minute...Snow ? 

We are still struggling to get temperatures out of the low 20's down here ! 

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The EC 46 more or less has us locked into +height anomalies to our N/NE throughout its entire run, now I’m not its biggest fan but if proven correct we could be looking at a well below average period of weather.

My concern here is the lack of rainfall spikes on this chart during the more reliable time frame.

As it is, we have not had any measureable rainfall here in Edinburgh since that really wet day which we had on Saturday 13 October 2018 and so, today is already our 7th day in a row without any measureable rainfall.

The chart below shows that there is not likely to be any significant rainfall during the more reliable timeframe and whilst some rainfall spikes do appear further down the line, these are all in the unreliable timeframe.

As a result of that, there is the danger that we could well be heading into what would then be our third absolute drought of this year.

On the other hand, the guidlines from SEPA suggest that this is the time of year when we should be starting to see groundwater levels recover from those summer droughts and so, the fact that we could end up with yet another drought going forward is very worrying indeed, as we really need to start seeing some serious rainfall here in order for those groundwater levels to properly recover. If that doesn't happen, this could become very critical and serious next year by the time that we go into next summer.

 

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Surely you just need the hills/Borders to get rain John? I’m not sure a water shortage would be likely in Edinburgh.

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The EC 46 more or less has us locked into +height anomalies to our N/NE throughout its entire run, now I’m not its biggest fan but if proven correct we could be looking at a well below average period of weather.

Looking at those 15-day GEFS graphs posted above, the theme is similar. There's the scatter once you get into the second week, which is inevitable, but the very general theme is a strikingly cold and blocky one. And in my experience, once you do get the blocking and the initial cold shot in place, then they're a lot more persistent than the graphics suggest at this stage.

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Surely you just need the hills/Borders to get rain John? I’m not sure a water shortage would be likely in Edinburgh.

If we get a cold northerly plunge next week though as some models are indicating, any wintry showers which result from that would be unlikely to reach the Borders (with the exception of possibly, the Berwickshire coastline and even there, you're usually only talking about an odd isolated shower in these conditions), so we would need to be relying on these showers getting to the hills just to the north of here. Even here though, I doubt that these showers would reach those areas to the same extent as they would in the likes of the north of Scotland and since we are only talking about showery conditions anyway, the amounts of equivalent rainfall from that is always much smaller than what you would get from there being some more persistent rain around.

Because of that, I'm not convinced that the amount of equivalent rainfall from any wintry showers which occur over the hills just to the north of here, would be enough to alleviate the drought situation if such a northerly outbreak was to arise next week.

I agree that it is true that a water shortage here in Edinburgh is historically unlikely on paper. However, we are in a rapidly changing world due to climate change and various other factors which makes the current period which we are living through just now, even more of an occasion than before, where we can never rule anything out when it comes to the weather. That in turn means that you can never actually say that we will never actually get any water shortages here in Edinburgh in the future (not that I was implying that you were suggesting otherwise, anyway).

 

 

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The EC 46 more or less has us locked into +height anomalies to our N/NE throughout its entire run, now I’m not its biggest fan but if proven correct we could be looking at a well below average period of weather.

Interesting!

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If only this were for December or January - direct northerly on the 6z:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0

For next weekend.

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A decade on: Something looks familiar - how can I forget the rain, sleet, snow, hail and freak floods and thundersnow of east Devon end of October 2008? - as I almost got washed away in floods! - Must take a look back for contrasting purposes!? 10 years on we could see a Deja vu just hope there are no floods with this one this time!

28th 0ctober 2008's chart 

 

28th October 2018 - (notice the similarities!?)

 

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Similar, but the position of the HP and the fetch of the wind makes 28th October 2018 more interesting (should the forecast verify of course).

GFS 12Z also looking interesting for next weekend.

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ECM brings a belt of Wintry PPN SSE over the UK T192 wrapped in -6 air-
Chance for snow over the hills...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 

To me something quite different and an early cold outbreak akin to 2010 looks possible

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

To me something quite different and an early cold outbreak akin to 2010 looks possible

I don’t disagree - it definitely looks interesting but waaaaayyyy too early to be drawing comparisons to winter proper let alone December 2010 the month the snow gods blessed this normally wet & windy isle. 

As long as it stays dry for the next couple of months while my roof is fixed the temperature can do whatever it likes. 

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Is this the start of another "winter of discontent"? The last one broke the post war consensus, perhaps this one will break the Thatcherite neo-liberal consensus

 

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Is this the start of another "winter of discontent"? The last one broke the post war consensus, perhaps this one will break the Thatcherite neo-liberal consensus

 

eh?

Well it looks like the season of proper ‘weather’ is about to get underway in decent style next weekend.

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