It's almost as if you took a look at my post over on the other forum :P

Your thoughts pretty much echo mine 100%

 

I posted something on these lines a while  back with regards to the QBO and it’s impacts for early in the season. It’s good seeing these sort of charts at this time of year and more so when compared to,the last several years but in isolation they mean diddly squat if by the start of winter we’re under the influence of a raging PV.

 

 

We can do very well from northerlies under the right conditions in winter. I know my northerlies. 

You can do, but Essex is somewhat less prone and really not in the firing line at this stage . Up here we can do well in most decent northerlies. This one does not quite have what it takes for your more temperate location in October. It does look chilly though generally. As Neil summarises nicely it is interesting weather (rather than extreme) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_141_1.png. 

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You can do, but Essex is somewhat less prone and really not in the firing line at this stage . Up here we can do well in most decent northerlies. This one does not quite have what it takes for your more temperate location in October. It does look chilly though generally. As Neil summarises nicely it is interesting weather (rather than extreme) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_141_1.png. 

Tonight's ECM regarding snowfall potential to day 10:

Good for your location if you like that sort of thing. However, for those of us who have more 'extreme' tastes (i.e, probably just me ) it is just a continuation of the current very boring spell with an added northerly twist. 

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Interesting easterly flow modelled in the medium range this morning.

This one has caught me by surprise slightly.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_192_1.png

some support from GFS too. 

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Interesting easterly flow modelled in the medium range this morning.

This one has caught me by surprise slightly.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_192_1.png

some support from GFS too. 

For some reason, the Polar Vortex has not propagated down the troposphere yet, hence its disorganised state allowing blocking at high latitudes.

Why that should be the case this year and whether it will change are key questions for our winter going forward. According to some, the global teleconnections (QBO in westerly phase, growing El Nino etc) should cause the PV to power up in its usual location, meaning a mild wet winter in western Europe.

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For some reason, the Polar Vortex has not propagated down the troposphere yet, hence its disorganised state allowing blocking at high latitudes.

Why that should be the case this year and whether it will change are key questions for our winter going forward. According to some, the global teleconnections (QBO in westerly phase, growing El Nino etc) should cause the PV to power up in its usual location, meaning a mild wet winter in western Europe.

We need to see this disconnect carrying on going forward, there’s been hints in the outer reaches of FI of the PV getting its act together in the latter stages. We really need to see this disconnect between the Trop and Strat as we head into the winter, at the moment we’ve got all the teleconnections playing ball so long may it continue before the QBO shifts into its westward phase and we see those zonal westerlies. 

Early beast perhaps!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_171_1.png 

Cold day next Saturday - chance of snow over Wales too and maybe a soft hail shower or sleety shower over Exmoor?

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#London #snowrow expected to reach 6 on the midday probability forecast update. The highest yet! https://t.co/bO5dJrQpxg pic.twitter.com/qJfT5rfDaK

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) October 22, 2018

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I'm in the Lakes at the weekend again 👍 You can't beat an arctic flow for sparkling views and frosty valleys in the Lakes.

2 weekends ago I was walking through 2 feet of water. This weekend we had 2 days of drizzle so I'm getting excited!

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Heavy snow for London this Saturday

(dusts off the Emojis)

 

CAnt believe i typing this - its not even halloween yet?!!

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Blimey, the charts are going for the cold to become stubborn over Scandi and begin to form a block , forcing fronts to stall and slide...#

Ok, no crazy cold, but enough for snow in places....

but....again....

Its not even Halloween yet.

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Another GFS run that ends with a very disorganized Polar Vortex and some crazy blocking. We've seen this before in November and its lead to nothing but perhaps this year is different as we've basically been in a blocked pattern since February. 

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Heavy snow for London this Saturday

(dusts off the Emojis)

 

CAnt believe i typing this - its not even halloween yet?!!

 

Yes amazing run and not out of the question similar to 2008.

 

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To me GFS 12z looks like it's trying to set up quite a prolonged cold spell (outside of a few interruptions) 

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Small pocket -7 850s heading south 0c approx 600metres 400metres 20.00 Saturday Tm2 around 5c and decreasing Brian would do well out of that very cold run for October.

 

 

 

Yes amazing run and not out of the question similar to 2008.

 

Mid Afternoon temperatures in Saturday:

Could be the coldest October daytime max in a decade if this came off:

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Mid Afternoon temperatures in Saturday:

Could be the coldest October daytime max in a decade if this came off:

Not out of the question, but I’d put a degree or two on those ‘generally’ as GFS tends to underestimate solar insolation.

That said it’s interesting, but I wouldn’t overcook the snow potential - plenty of time for those shenanigans as we head towards Christmas.

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Not out of the question, but I’d put a degree or two on those ‘generally’ as GFS tends to underestimate solar insolation.

That said it’s interesting, but I wouldn’t overcook the snow potential - plenty of time for those shenanigans as we head towards Christmas.

 

Let's just hope we get this northerly in and around Christmas as well. 

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Cracking end to ECM with the warmer air flooding north again