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johncs2016
17 October 2018 12:09:18
In many ways, the prospects of high pressure being in charge for the rest of this month is actually bad news for us in terms of rainfall. We did get some rain at the weekend, but this was still not enough to alleviate the dry start to this month which we have had in these parts. Furthermore, the rain which we did get at the weekend was still not as much as what other parts of the UK got.

Here in the east of Scotland, I am living in what is probably one of the driest parts of the UK just now, and an area which badly needs to start seeing some sustained rainfall if we are to reduce the rainfall deficit which has built up over the summer months. With high pressure now being forecast to be in charge for the foreseeable future, it looks as though not only are there no signs of that deficit being reduced, but that deficit is just going to grow even larger over time as we go into an even drier spell of weather during the foreseeable future.

This means that if we were then to have a dry winter and a dry spring, things could then get extremely serious and critical, especially if we were to then, go into another dry summer next year as well. That is the most worrying aspect of having high pressure in charge during the foreseeable future, but is only one aspect of that because there is also the question of whether this will be a clear high or a cloudy high. If it is a clear high, the outlook could actually be quite interesting because this is around the time of year when we would expect to be seeing our first official air frosts, and the best chance of that happening is going to under high pressure with clear skies at night. Could the fact that we are going to have high pressure around, mean that we now finally get our first official air frosts of the season which has eluded us here in Edinburgh until now?

However, it would just be like the thing if we ended up under a cloudy high. If that happens, then our borefest just goes on because those cloudy nights would mean that the temperatures carried on refusing to drop at nights, and there is also a risk of us going into a real and proper permacast hell during day with each day being yet another boring and overcast grey nothingness, with yet more constant grey skies.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
KevBrads1
17 October 2018 16:29:15


That is an intense high pressure, some local pressure records maybe broken for October. 


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briggsy6
17 October 2018 18:19:14

Will it be a warm high or a cold high? A cloudy high or a clear high?


Location: Uxbridge
Maunder Minimum
17 October 2018 18:49:56


Will it be a warm high or a cold high? A cloudy high or a clear high?


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


Probably depends on your location. Looks like being clear to the south and west, but overcast in the far north and down the east coast - judging from its position and orientation.


Where it is clear, the nights of course will be colder, but the days warmer.


New world order coming.
ballamar
18 October 2018 07:05:50
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPUK00_240_2.png 

Could be first widespread wintry showers next weekend
Surrey John
18 October 2018 15:27:20

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPUK00_240_2.png

Could be first widespread wintry showers next weekend

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


Another chart for weekend of 27th-28th looking rather cold


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=8&type=0&archive=0


 


Usual reservations on model accuracy as it is 9 days away, but does seem to suggest a cold incursion from North


 


 


Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
ARTzeman
18 October 2018 15:37:41

I have not bought snow shovel yet  but I might On Thursday after looking at the charts when I Changed the zoom level to 150% and translated it ...






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
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Steve Murr
18 October 2018 16:56:04

The updated AO ens have dropped another sigma today - with clustering down to -3

The afternoon GEM is the pick of the wintry bunch after day 7...

ballamar
18 October 2018 20:33:22


 


 


Another chart for weekend of 27th-28th looking rather cold


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=8&type=0&archive=0


 


Usual reservations on model accuracy as it is 9 days away, but does seem to suggest a cold incursion from North


 


 


Originally Posted by: Surrey John 


 


certainly potential at the moment more interesting than an Icelandic low stuck in place

xioni2
18 October 2018 22:10:58


The updated AO ens have dropped another sigma today - with clustering down to -3

The afternoon GEM is the pick of the wintry bunch after day 7...


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


Plenty of -AO/NAO and cold anomalies in the latest EC46 update (just out) for most of November.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 October 2018 06:36:45


 Another chart for weekend of 27th-28th looking rather cold


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=8&type=0&archive=0


 


Usual reservations on model accuracy as it is 9 days away, but does seem to suggest a cold incursion from North


 

Originally Posted by: Surrey John 


GFS doing its usual tease and shifting the cold plunge east just enough to miss us; then suggesting it'll all happen again a week later. 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
19 October 2018 07:32:30
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_192_1.png 

That would be cold enough up here for some hill snow to moderately low elevations (maybe 2-300m)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU00_204_1.png 

It’s not an Express style snowmageddon but it may give a small number of people the first small brief foretaste of winter.
Maunder Minimum
19 October 2018 07:47:21
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU00_204_1.png 

It’s not an Express style snowmageddon but it may give a small number of people the first small brief foretaste of winter.


Cripes! That is straight from the 1878 playbook.


New world order coming.
Quantum
19 October 2018 11:03:36
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU00_204_1.png 

It’s not an Express style snowmageddon but it may give a small number of people the first small brief foretaste of winter.


I think it would give snow to low levels in northern Scotland and potentially a sizeable amount as the lake effect ramps up to 11. It would be one of those situations where an inch or so of snow is lying at 8am in Wick but is all gone by lunchtime as the snow turns sleety or to rain. Away from northern scotland light or moderate rain showers with some wintryness over the hills.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Tractor Boy
19 October 2018 11:52:37

 


Cripes! That is straight from the 1878 playbook.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1878/noaa/NOAA_1_1878102900_1.png



Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
Maunder Minimum
19 October 2018 20:00:20

Check out the ECM 12Z - cold....


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018101912/ECM1-168.GIF


 


New world order coming.
Heavy Weather 2013
20 October 2018 05:58:40
Next weekends cold shot looks like more of an upgrade this morning. The charts in FI appear to show a recurring theme

Next Weekend

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_171_2.png 

Recurring theme into FI

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_348_1.png 

Surprised this place isn’t more busy. The amount of blocking around and those potential heights over GL are starting to look mouthwatering.

Feels good to see these early in the season rather than looking for scraps.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Brian Gaze
20 October 2018 06:17:26

Next week's cold shot is looking quite potent and possibly comparable to the October 2008 one which brought several cms of snow to the Chilterns and a covering in central London.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Heavy Weather 2013
20 October 2018 06:25:16


Next week's cold shot is looking quite potent and possibly comparable to the October 2008 one which brought several cms of snow to the Chilterns and a covering in central London.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


3 on the London Snow Row already as well 🤤


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
roadrunnerajn
20 October 2018 07:10:29
It's looking like Northern and Eastern Britian will see something wintery next weekend. However I would expect a few chilly days and maybe the odd frost for us in the Southwest. If any showers do make it down this far Dartmoor and Exmoor could see a dusting.
The high would have to move a few hundred miles further west to open up a cold northerly blast down the Irish Sea and create the Pembrokeshire Droop...
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
doctormog
20 October 2018 07:24:42

“Inverness” snow row now on 22 as well https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850inverness0.png?cb=569


There’s a small chance that the showers here, if we get any, next weekend may be a little wintry although this would more likely with elevation. Perhaps only a one or two day flirtation with colder conditions but more interesting than nothing. 


Perhaps this will be winter? 


nsrobins
20 October 2018 08:18:05


“Inverness” snow row now on 22 as well https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850inverness0.png?cb=569


There’s a small chance that the showers here, if we get any, next weekend may be a little wintry although this would more likely with elevation. Perhaps only a one or two day flirtation with colder conditions but more interesting than nothing. 


Perhaps this will be winter? 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


There looks to be a reasonable chance of significant snowfall across the ranges of Scotland next weekend and possibly areas such as the NYMs.


Maybe enough to get the ski resorts open?


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
20 October 2018 08:21:31


 


There looks to be a reasonable chance of significant snowfall across the ranges of Scotland next weekend and possibly areas such as the NYMs.


Maybe enough to get the ski resorts open?


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Enough to make them look white but only to a superficial level as there is no base (and in Cairngorm’s case no funicular!) 


I suspect the majority would be gone in a few days beyond the weekend.


Gusty
20 October 2018 08:28:52

Hang on a minute...Snow ? 


We are still struggling to get temperatures out of the low 20's down here ! 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Solar Cycles
20 October 2018 08:34:16
The EC 46 more or less has us locked into +height anomalies to our N/NE throughout its entire run, now I’m not its biggest fan but if proven correct we could be looking at a well below average period of weather.

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