I don’t think it will be quite cold enough for any wintriness on Sunday but there is still a chance for some very mild conditions in FI beyond then.

Agreed. Some very benign, quiet and potentially warm October weather on the menu mid range if the current output is to be believed.

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The wae depression in the channel really winds itself up tomorrow ( Sat 6th) according to the fax charts and it looks as if the SE, from Dorset eastwards, could have a really wet afternoon. MetO forecasts are for significantly more rain from this system than they were proposing earlier.

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A fairly protracted SE/Southern wind influence from GEFS suite still being modelled from next week keeping things warm and settled for most of UK...as per usual Ireland and W.Scotland more unsettled and windier...hopefully we'll see a spell of much needed rain over the weekend...

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Meanwhile, the only outcome which I can see from the latest model output is just a continuation of the same old borefest which we have been seeing here until now where our weather is dominated by grey skies for most of the time with very little in the way of either rain or sunshine (which quite frankly, I've got a bit fed up with now).

From what I am seeing, most of the rain which doesn't just stay well to the south of here in the short to medium term outlook, is staying to the north and west of here with very little of that actually reaching here in the east of Scotland. Because of that, all I can see for here is a very dry outlook indeed which means that not only are we failing to make up the rainfall deficit from the dry summer which we had, but that deficit just continues to mount up even further.

Given the latest forecasts for the south of England at the weekend in particular, it would not therefore surprise me if the SE of Scotland in particular, ended up being the driest part of the UK this month.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

The warm core in Leslie showing up nicely.

Indian Summer in mid October!

 

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http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018100612/84-777UK.GIF?06-12 

No wonder there are three days of warnings out for the region.

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Amazing charts for mid-October, with winds sourced all the way from North Africa! The GFS seems to be hinting at the possibility of 25C under sunny skies next Saturday, which would be the 13th. Does anybody know what the latest 25C on record is?

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Amazing charts for mid-October, with winds sourced all the way from North Africa! The GFS seems to be hinting at the possibility of 25C under sunny skies next Saturday, which would be the 13th. Does anybody know what the latest 25C on record is?

18th October at 25.9C. Some doubt about that figure as it was well above anything else in the area. There was a fohn effect.

Other than the figure above there has never been a 25C recorded after 13 October. 25.3C was recorded on 13 October in 2001.

Does anybody know what the latest 25C on record is?

The 18th:

http://www.torro.org.uk/hightempsyear.php

 

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Cheers both, so we won't see the latest 25C on record, but there's certainly a chance for one or two date records to go.

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That really is an impressive east west split in terms of rainfall in the next few days.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/4a04f59a55d47ee2f1126f484fd78c00/accumulated-precipitation/20181010-0300z.html 

220mm in the west and about 5mm around here.

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Those mountains are more like a 4,000ft dam wall.

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A mild week with Scotland bearing the brunt of the moist SW-lies. Later this week the interest is in Friday's depression. Fax charts are bullish about bringing the rain across the Uk, GFS has the centre standing further off to the west.

EDIT: ECM 0z has Leslie making landfall in Portugal on Sunday and then running up the coast. A really anomalous storm - is it unprecedented? Certainly creating model headaches.

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Those mountains are more like a 4,000ft dam wall.

 

Aberdeen is one of the drier places in the UK and iirc the sunniest of Scotlands cities, receives about a 3rd less rain than many south coast resorts. The reason is those mountains to the west of the city. You can often watch weather fronts dry out on rain radars as they reach the mountains.

 

 

 

Aberdeen is one of the drier places in the UK and iirc the sunniest of Scotlands cities, receives about a 3rd less rain than many south coast resorts. The reason is those mountains to the west of the city. You can often watch weather fronts dry out on rain radars as they reach the mountains.

 

As we know though, that still usually isn't enough to satisfy a certain TWO form member from there with the name of Richard.

On a more serious note though, perhaps this might come as a surprise because according to that article, it is actually Edinburgh which is the driest city in Scotland on average closely followed by Dundee with both Edinburgh and Dundee each having the joint lowest average number of official rain days every year. Not surprisingly though, Glasgow is listed as the wettest city in Scotland in that report.

There isn't any info there for Inverness, Perth or Stirling which are the three other cities in Scotland apart from the big four cities of Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dundee (which I have listed here in population order). Out of those four biggest cities which I have just listed listed, that would actually place Aberdeen as the second wettest of those four cities.

As for Edinburgh being the driest city, that has been borne out during this month so far by the fact that just 2.8 mm of rain has fallen at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh during this month so far, which I have seen to be far less than anything which has been reported by every single member so far on this month's Precipitation Watch thread.

 

 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_171_1.png 

Could be a nice sting under the main low if this is correct

That really is an impressive east west split in terms of rainfall in the next few days.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/4a04f59a55d47ee2f1126f484fd78c00/accumulated-precipitation/20181010-0300z.html

220mm in the west and about 5mm around here.

Inevitably the very large rainfall totals are causing significant flooding problems. The BBC suggested this morning the of flooding was the most severe since Storm Desmond. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-45795343 

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I've noticed that the Met Office have now issued a yellow warning for rain in this area for Saturday so if that is right, the might finally at long last be some much needed rainfall heading in this direction by the weekend. Furthermore, it is nice to see both the ECMWF and the GFS trending wetter than average here for a change as was shown on both of Gavin P.'s videos which he put out today.

I am still a bit sceptical because all too often, these unsettled spells have been very brief when they have happened (hence, the reason why we haven't had any wetter than average months since April) but at least, this gives us a glimmer of hope that this long extended period of drier than average weather might finally be coming to an end in these parts, and that we might at long last, actually start to make up that rainfall deficit which was built up during the first half of the summer, in particular.

On another note, it is looking as though we might have Storm Callum on the scene on around Friday (although that is yet to be confirmed) and it is remarkable that even this early in the season, we will already be onto our third named storm under the current joint UK/Ireland system if that happens. I know that this system hasn't been in place for all that long, but this is quite remarkable when you consider that when Storm Desmond caused all of those flooding problems back in December 2015 (in this naming system's very first season), it was only our fourth named storm of that season which incorporated that very mild, wet and stormy winter of 2015/16 (which is date, is still our last wetter than average winter in these parts).

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Storm on Friday/Saturday with lots of rain for Wales and the west, but southerly winds then resume for a while until the remnants of Michael combine with the jet stream to give more active depressions with a predominantly NW airflow in a week's time.

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Interesting on the 6z today/

 

I realise its one run, but on this run we see HP cells coming through from US and loading up a midatlantic block with the NAO then going seemingly strongly negative, with the hint of the pressure then slowly migrating further north at the end of the run. 

This is not an isolated  trend, recent runs have hinted at something like this developing.

 I realise this doesnt get us to a wintry conclusion, but its miles ahead of what we usually see.

What an odd autumn we are having compared to recent years, Frost and potential wintry synoptics before autumn is half way through, usually its December before we see things like this.

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