roadrunnerajn
21 September 2018 06:44:04
We are also waiting to hear if our cycling event will take place this Sunday. It starts just north of Newquay and the routes go very close to the coast. Final decision will be made tomorrow afternoon.
With possible gusts to 55mph I'd say it will probably be cancelled....
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Rob K
21 September 2018 09:36:21

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Big cycle event in Sussex (15000 riders) due on Sunday cancelled on H&S grounds.


Much local relief as the 9 hours of  closed roads will no longer lock people in their houses (not exaggerating - unless you're on foot you can't access or cross the route for this time)



As a cyclist (albeit mostly off-road), events like that really annoy me. They seem purpose-designed to make people hate cyclists, and they certainly need no encouragement to do that.


 


Anyway, OT... the track of Sunday's low seems to have shifted southwards a little. 


 


ARPEGE has a perfect Channel low. If only it was February, etc....


 



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
bowser
21 September 2018 09:54:00

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I thought it was all looking safe for flying on Sunday afternoon. After a decidedly hairy last 10 minutes of a flight into Heathrow this evening I’m going to be watching those charts carefully.


It was bumpy on the way out too, especially on a prop plane!

doctormog
21 September 2018 11:01:40
The GFS op run continues its recent trend of dragging cold air in from the north around the first week of October.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_1.png  Not exceptional but cold for early to mid autumn.
Russwirral
21 September 2018 11:21:08

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

The GFS op run continues its recent trend of dragging cold air in from the north around the first week of October.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_1.png Not exceptional but cold for early to mid autumn.


 


yeh theres been a few cold runs this past week for October.  Thats very unusual compared to recent years, even if it doesnt come off, there genuinely feels like a different kind of Autumn in the charts this year.


EDIT:


Backs up my thoughts.   All members barely make it above average and mostly stay well below for the forseable.


 


 No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Bertwhistle
21 September 2018 12:22:57

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

The GFS op run continues its recent trend of dragging cold air in from the north around the first week of October.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_1.png Not exceptional but cold for early to mid autumn.


 


Although this would be quite exceptional: snow in S England in the first week of October?


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


No way.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Saint Snow
21 September 2018 14:08:46

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


 


yeh theres been a few cold runs this past week for October.  Thats very unusual compared to recent years, even if it doesnt come off, there genuinely feels like a different kind of Autumn in the charts this year.


EDIT:


Backs up my thoughts.   All members barely make it above average and mostly stay well below for the forseable.


 


 No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.



 


I really hope we don't get our winter too early, and then when it should be the depths of winter, it's crap - mild & wet.


Although I'd take a repeat of winter 2010/11.


 


 



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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 September 2018 06:56:09

Never mind the snow, what about the rain? The South Coast has been living a charmed life this last week while everywhere from the Midlands northwards has been seeing rain. Now we get our share, and then some as wave depressions run along the Channel, one today and another tomorrow, each of which could deliver an inch or so. Each run on the MetO site looks increasingly as if it will be southern counties getting it, perhaps with Birmingham on the northern edge.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Solar Cycles
22 September 2018 07:09:34

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


 


I really hope we don't get our winter too early, and then when it should be the depths of winter, it's crap - mild & wet.


Although I'd take a repeat of winter 2010/11.


 


 


I think/hope/guess that we’ll see an early start to winter with a sluggish jet stream allowing heights to build towards Greenland, how long for  is anyone’s guess. The whole NH profile is unusual and has been that way since the SSW earlier in the year.

briggsy6
22 September 2018 08:26:23

The weather down here has been abnomal since about March: first we had the late cold spell, then a very extended dry spell from about Apr/May onwards, a roasting hot summer now a flip to wet weather though only short lived by the looks of it.


Location: Uxbridge
Bertwhistle
23 September 2018 16:39:55

850s temp range for the SE R=20°C from 3rd October onwards.


Serious case of the uncertain model!


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=777


 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
White Meadows
23 September 2018 20:35:58
October sure looking on the cold side, the signal is maintained across various outputs, some more reliable than others:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif 


LeedsLad123
23 September 2018 22:05:53

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

October sure looking on the cold side, the signal is maintained across various outputs, some more reliable than others:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif



That shows average temperatures? 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 September 2018 06:34:40

W Europe generally below average for the next 2 weeks, especially cold in Norway and only Iberia hanging on to warmth. But dry, xo hopefully nice in sunshine


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Russwirral
24 September 2018 08:47:01

Originally Posted by: DEW 


W Europe generally below average for the next 2 weeks, especially cold in Norway and only Iberia hanging on to warmth. But dry, xo hopefully nice in sunshine


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4


 



 


Will be interesting if that intrduces some early snow cover to scandinavia, the last time that happened early in the season (i think) was heading into 2010.


 


That being said, that started to happen end of October, not the start of.


 


Interesting times, and way against the norm.


some faraway beach
24 September 2018 08:51:31

Startlingly dry on the GEFS for my neck of the woods. Should be a really nice autumn spell of sunny days and cool nights.



2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Charmhills
24 September 2018 09:18:08

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

October sure looking on the cold side, the signal is maintained across various outputs, some more reliable than others:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif



Some long range models are going for a cool or chilly October.


Its been some years since that last happened.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Brian Gaze
24 September 2018 12:47:14

GEFS flipped to warm uppers.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Gavin P
24 September 2018 14:41:17

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


GEFS flipped to warm uppers.




 


Yeah the models have decided to keep high pressure centered almost over the country (for now) which means those cool/cold north/north-westerlies are shunted into Scandinavia and north-east Europe.


Will be interesting to see if the ridge does eventually pull back into the mid-Atlantic and open the door to the north later in October?


I have a feeling October will give us a fairly sharp northerly at some point but we'll see...


Rural West Northants 120m asl
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Snow Hoper
24 September 2018 18:55:08

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


GEFS flipped to warm uppers.




And based on the 12s it's looking less certain again.


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


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