Arpege has gusts of 90mph in western Ireland. The track on recent model runs has been more consistent than I expected. 

Going to do a discussion of Ophelia here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbJ73IcpDC4

Live in a few minutes. Going to focus on the extratropical transition.

Your suffering from severe Quantumism. 

I’ll reiterate for the hard of reading - HURRICANE!! 

Your tropical scharacteristic guff isn’t what I am talking about. A HURRICANE HITTING THE UK. It won’t. Ever. Unless global warming ever increases the sea temps around our island and for thousands of miles in every direction to a point where a hurricane had any chance of remaining a hurricane. 

Apologies on the current status error. Doesn’t change what I’m saying though

Why are you ignoring the evidence I have presented? 

Tropical cyclones have thrived in low temperatures before; its not irreconcilable. Debate the evidence, how do you explain the likes of Faith, Debbie, 93L, Grace? 

Also I should point out Ophelia is stronger than Debbie and will arrive sooner. ET transitions do not happen instantly, it will take time for Ophelia to weaken. Hell yesterday Fax charts were showing Ophelia as tropical at the same latitude as France. How can you possibly say, in light of all this, that its outright impossible?

Well if nothing else our post tropical storm (or whatever it ends up as) seems likely to give things a bit of a kick and means the South East joins in with the more unsettled weather we've managed to avoid for a while:-

With synoptics like these, who needs hurricanes?

GFS has dartboard lows across S Britain on THu and again (more marked) next Sun. UKMO a bit hesitant about the Thursday one but agrees with next weekend. Not only will S England get a share of the action but, regrettably, S Ireland too, just as their clean-up after Ophelia is under way.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850inverness0.png?cb=257

Snow row making a number of appearances in Inverness

How do you know this? What sources are you using?

The source of 'I am Matty and I am right now shut up'. 

It used to be mildly amusing and part of the charm but these days its shocking behaviour and verging on trolling IMO. We have lost too many good posters over the years due to this sort of belittlement. ...but hey ho...

With regard to the models. Thursday 19th and Saturday 21st are two such days when there is a growing risk of some potentially damaging wind events in the south. Saturday looks potentially nasty. 

Yes the weather is getting interesting again!

FWW, whilst I don't always buy into Q's assessments this is a very unusual situation regarding Ophelia irrespective of how it impacts the UK and Ireland. 

Should keep the AGW proponents happy! 

Some very unsettled runs round form mid to late week onwards and increasingly cool if not chilly in the wind and rain.

A shock to the system coming up.

Yes, I have been focussing on Ophelia too much and relieved that my garage roof is safe, but perhaps not for too long!

Some very worrying  GEFS members showing up. I assume Thursday's storm will be named Brian, but this one I don't know

A few classic "bombs" in there

Proper autumn 

Indeed. A can't help but Gaze at Brian. 

😂

The new craze - the ‘Brian Gaze’?

On the subject of trolling there will be less and less of that on the weather forum. That's a promise! We no longer accept new members so once an account is deleted the member is gone. 

And look at the positioning of that high to our north!

Regarding Q assessments I tend to agree with most of what he says, very knowledgeable and goes into great in-depth detail in his analysis. I don’t agree with him on this  being a potential hurricane but I would say he’s given this some food for thought though.🙂