A very good 21:55 forecast last night from Phil Avery, going to lengths to explain that most models keep the UK in battleground territory for next week between the Scandi high and the Atlantic fronts, whilst pointing out that the "American model" was showing a scenario with low pressure crossing the UK midweek, albeit an outlier.

This morning the big three show us in the battleground scenario (more unsettled in west, drier in east, south-easterly winds) at T+144

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_144_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

A bit later down the line the Scandi block holds but there are some indications of south-easterly diving lows breaking through, e.g.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_216_1.png (with some tropical depressions on the conveyor belt upstream).

Early October looks pretty unsettled at the moment but of course in this set-up things could readily change.

There is some snow cover already over Siberia

Keep an eye on this link over the next few weeks

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Those maps are excellent - Shows how in Eastern Siberia winter has already commenced.

First day-night average below zero showing up in next week's chart

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

but it's still >38C in the Levant! 

Both ECM and GFS showing unsettled weather pushing over the whole of the country Fridayish, with ECM managing to bring a former TS/Hurricane (I assume) over us at the end of its run for some mild n wild stuff.

Looks fairly set that October is going to start unsettled at this stage although still a bit of time for that to change. Whether the block to our East gives up or sticks around is debateable - could leave us very unsettled if it stays put but not close enough to bring settled weather, although that does also bring in the possibility of some very mild air being dragged up at times too. 

So what happened to our Indian Summer that I heard some people saying was on the way?

So what happened to our Indian Summer that I heard some people saying was on the way?

Horrific outlook with slow moving fronts giving potentially some incredible rain totals. 

 

 

Horrific outlook with slow moving fronts giving potentially some incredible rain totals. 

Looks fairly normal for many

Latest GFS still hasn't picked up the rapid bombing of Hurricane Lee. Instead the scandi blocks returns

 

 

Horrific outlook with slow moving fronts giving potentially some incredible rain totals. 

Could you provide some back-up for that comment please, Ian?

A third very anticyclonic, easterly October on the trot?

 

Could you provide some back-up for that comment please, Ian?

Sure, we have a set-up where High pressure to the East/NE is potentially blocking the transfer of systems  West to East. This combined with aggressive cyclogenesis in the warm Atlantic has the potential to give a lot of stalling rainfall over Western and Central areas as the fronts cannot progress past the Meridian. This is clearly highlighted from midweek onwards through to day 10 on the ECM.

 

 

Sure, we have a set-up where High pressure to the East/NE is potentially blocking the transfer of systems  West to East. This combined with aggressive cyclogenesis in the warm Atlantic has the potential to give a lot of stalling rainfall over Western and Central areas as the fronts cannot progress past the Meridian. This is clearly highlighted from midweek onwards through to day 10 on the ECM.

Assuming the ECM is proved to be correct in what it shows, that is.

Anyone who has regularly followed the ECM runs throughout the summer up to and including day 10 will know that more often than not recently, it has chopped and changed pretty regularly. For example, early last week it was indicating HP to our east building pretty strongly towards the UK and effectively blocking out the atlantic. Now it doesn't look as though that will happen.

For me, taking anything for more than a few days ahead as a given is very unwise.

 

Assuming the ECM is proved to be correct in what it shows, that is.

Anyone who has regularly followed the ECM runs throughout the summer up to and including day 10 will know that more often than not recently, it has chopped and changed pretty regularly. For example, early last week it was indicating HP to our east building pretty strongly towards the UK and effectively blocking out the atlantic. Now it doesn't look as though that will happen.

For me, taking anything for more than a few days ahead as a given is very unwise.

Agreed, David.  The verification stats suggest the models are broadly accurate out to T+120 but accuracy falls away sharply out to T+240. In unusual weather patterns I think it's inevitable that the accuracy levels will fall a little - a blocking pattern counts as unusual.

Wait for the inevitable “Britain to be battered by hurricane” nonsense in the tabloids.

Already had those headlines over here

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/weather/topstories/dublin-weather-hurricanes-maria-and-jose-head-towards-ireland-to-unleash-devastating-storms/ar-AAsi3GY?li=AAmb2oK&ocid=ientp

Indeed. Flicking through the GFS frames from 120 to 144 I found myself humming "The Wheels On The Bus".

Indeed,

ECM 00z looking very unsettled and at times very wet for most.

Met/o 00z brings a brief ridge in on Saturday, no doubt it wont last long though.

A third very anticyclonic, easterly October on the trot?

I wonder how long that would have to persist before it started sending cold air in our direction.

 

I wonder how long that would have to persist before it started sending cold air in our direction.

 

Until today’s GFS run would have been a start?