Indeed. People are so used to it being warmer then the long term average, it stands out when the weather is average or a bit below.

I doubt the cooler spell of weather we have had recently has any bearing on the forthcoming late Autumn and Winter. 

And a zonal Westerly pattern will take hold when it matters 

I love an optimist 

Even the GFS 12z op run looks shocked at your suggestion  http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_384_1.png 

There is significant Synoptics showing on Bracknell Fax Charts.

NW Atlantic High transits to East and SE Fringes of the UK and across Bay of Biscay then across N NE France and the North Sea.

Iceland and West NW UK Low Pressure areas, and further Tropical NW to N Atlantic Low Pressure tracking East then NE, some energy spreads to W and NW Spain but weakens to keep pressure not predominantly Low, with A tongue of very warm air over SW Europe Spain and at the SE of the Former Hurricane which looks set to re-intensify to a 974 mbs Atlantic PV Low and it approaches to our West during Thursday and Friday next week with a 564 dam line wedges and warm humid sector coming to bring a South and SW flow toward UK by Thursday-Friday closer to us.

High Pressure over to our NE in far N and NE Europe and over the N and E Greenland area, pushes East then ESE across N NW Russia with cool chilly pool of air from Norwegian Sea which during Tuesday and Wednesday spreads to N and East Greenland.

During next week South and SE Greenland and Iceland will see some windy weather with Low Pressure bring mild east winds that veer SE as well.

Can tell we're in that time of year when not a lots happening

Both ECM and GFS are consistent with HP to our east extending it's influence westwards. With LP moving towards the block this serves to drag up some warm uppers and depending on cloud amounts we could be in for some late warmth.

GFS seems marginally less keen on the HP than ECM and is consequently less settled (to my eyes anyway) - whether this is the GFS overdoing the Atlantic or the ECM overdoing the block, time will tell.

GFS 0Z - Settling into a NW/SE pattern for the next few days, with the SE getting warm conditions though a bit breezy with SW winds. NW likely to have more cloud and fronts brushing past.

But for students of FI, the SE gets well and truly saturated when the remnants of Maris arrive round about 1 Oct. Cheer up - it may never happen!

Cohen has mentioned the "monster block" bringing an early taste of winter to Siberia and Asia. I think there is a correlation between more active hurricane seasons and blocking to the northeast / east of the UK. Having said that there appears to be a strong signal (based on long range models) for positive height anomalies to develop to the south of the UK by the time winter arrives.

The long range models are clueless as we all know from past experience. My hunch is that various factors will lead to strong blocking to the NE, but that then becomes a tantalising game of will it influence our weather, or will it stay out of reach, leaving us on the warm and wet side of the Jet?

Factors in our favour this winter - strong hurricane season, neutral ENSO, low solar activity and we are due by divine order for a decent winter.

Factors against us - if something can screw it up for this neck of the woods, it will.

 

The long range models are clueless as we all know from past experience. My hunch is that various factors will lead to strong blocking to the NE, but that then becomes a tantalising game of will it influence our weather, or will it stay out of reach, leaving us on the warm and wet side of the Jet?

Factors in our favour this winter - strong hurricane season, neutral ENSO, low solar activity and we are due by divine order for a decent winter.

Factors against us - if something can screw it up for this neck of the woods, it will.

I well remember the amount of speculation there was late last autumn that the early part of last winter would be predominantly cold and sometimes wintry; this was something that I think was mentioned in at least one BBC forecast at the time. Once we got in early December though, the model output at the time showed those predictions were likely to be proved way off the mark, and that's what happened in the end.

 

I well remember the amount of speculation there was late last autumn that the early part of last winter would be predominantly cold and sometimes wintry; this was something that I think was mentioned in at least one BBC forecast at the time. Once we got in early December though, the model output at the time showed those predictions were likely to be proved way off the mark, and that's what happened in the end.

All weather and climate  modelling is nigh on useless post 7-10 days. I remember the blurb on the launch of GLOSEA5 being close to accurately predicting seasons ahead the reality being,  its still no nearer than ever. The question is will we ever be able to forecast accurately to any degree the seasons ahead.

Hard to see how it would ever be possible - there are too many variables to factor in. The models cannot predict whether there will be a volcano going off somewhere in the next week, what solar output will be next month, how an active hurricane season will disrupt their algorithms and so forth. Whatever patterns they come up with for 3 months hence can easily be disrupted in the meantime.

P.S. Here is the Cohen paper:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

I well remember the amount of speculation there was late last autumn that the early part of last winter would be predominantly cold and sometimes wintry; this was something that I think was mentioned in at least one BBC forecast at the time. Once we got in early December though, the model output at the time showed those predictions were likely to be proved way off the mark, and that's what happened in the end.

Ah yes, the famous "front-loaded winter". They were right in that there were a few frosts in the first week of December before the insane mildness took hold :)

Looking ahead as DEW pointed out the weekend of Sep 30 looks pretty wet and stormy (although with Nibiru destroying the Earth on the 23rd it's all academic really)

 

Hard to see how it would ever be possible - there are too many variables to factor in. The models cannot predict whether there will be a volcano going off somewhere in the next week, what solar output will be next month, how an active hurricane season will disrupt their algorithms and so forth. Whatever patterns they come up with for 3 months hence can easily be disrupted in the meantime.

P.S. Here is the Cohen paper:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

I’m not Cohen’s biggest fan either with the much touted SOI being a complete flop during the last two years.

The Yorkshire Evening Press had a long range forecaster in the 70s/80s who used a similar approach to Cohen. He didn't back it up scientifically or name the technique, but it basically involved looking at developing snow cover / pressure patterns across Siberia / Asia in the autumn months. He would make a call by the end of November as I remember. He was possibly called Banes/Baines but I'm not sure. The idea isn't new but Cohen has formalised it to an extent I think. 

 

The Yorkshire Evening Press had a long range forecaster in the 70s/80s who used a similar approach to Cohen. He didn't back it up scientifically or name the technique, but it basically involved looking at developing snow cover / pressure patterns across Siberia / Asia in the autumn months. He would make a call by the end of November as I remember. He was possibly called Banes/Baines but I'm not sure. The idea isn't new but Cohen has formalised it to an extent I think. 

Bill Foggitt maybe?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/1471818/Bill-Foggitt.html

 

Bill Foggitt maybe?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/1471818/Bill-Foggitt.html

I might be wrong and having memory-muddle, but I don't remember Bill Foggitt's methods being anything like as sophisticated as examining autumnal snow cover over Siberia/Asia. Think Bill was more a seaweed, pine cone and waxwings sort of chap.

 

 

I might be wrong and having memory-muddle, but I don't remember Bill Foggitt's methods being anything like as sophisticated as examining autumnal snow cover over Siberia/Asia. Think Bill was more a seaweed, pine cone and waxwings sort of chap.

That's kind of correct. He was an advocate of the lore of nature when compiling forecasts, but he also used extensive family weather records going back to 1771, and had a professional set-up at home in terms of weather recording. So I'd call it pine cones and pattern-matching.

Lived just up the road from me in Thirsk.

 

The long range models are clueless as we all know from past experience. My hunch is that various factors will lead to strong blocking to the NE, but that then becomes a tantalising game of will it influence our weather, or will it stay out of reach, leaving us on the warm and wet side of the Jet?

Factors in our favour this winter - strong hurricane season, neutral ENSO, low solar activity and we are due by divine order for a decent winter.

Factors against us - if something can screw it up for this neck of the woods, it will.

There's evidence if you believe the CFS, we could be looking at a strong La Nina by Christmas complicating things further.

 

Bill Foggitt maybe?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/1471818/Bill-Foggitt.html

No it wasn't Bill Foggitt.

 

There's evidence if you believe the CFS, we could be looking at a strong La Nina by Christmas complicating things further.

Well, we know from past experience that a strong ENSO signal can scupper our winter. I think the last strong La Nina coincided with a particularly mild UK winter.