Gavin D
Wednesday, September 6, 2017 10:40:51 AM

The London mean has deepened Monday's low further on the 00z


12z it was 995mb


00z it's now down to nearly 985mb


graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.4b250962243b68d82e124cd6f30bfba2.png


Pressure on Tuesday at 00z is about 5mb lower than the mean had last night from Tuesday onwards it looks like a steady rise in pressure with it getting close to 1020mb by the 16th


Gavin D
Wednesday, September 6, 2017 4:37:17 PM

Quite a rapid rise in pressure between 12z Monday and 12z Tuesday



Gavin D
Wednesday, September 6, 2017 5:41:44 PM

GEM shows warmer air and high pressure moving in from mid next week


GEMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.e7aecd5e92c404256e650b09462b9550.pngGEMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.14d239400637517699ae44bbb5aedfde.pngGEMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.6a4b4eaec34c6d4b5f7ab360931ea2e9.png


GEMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.1a06b464b97d62f566f3decfe7ef1a22.pngGEMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.a947ed84c8e42af3a64416db68defd27.png


Gavin D
Wednesday, September 6, 2017 6:39:54 PM

ECM is taking a similar route to some of the other models with Sunday's low pulling away during Monday allowing some higher pressure to build in for Tuesday


ECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.590270fdc683088988844245aca84c25.png


By Wednesday we are back to a westerly flow as a deep low tracks north west of Scotland driest the further south you are and temps recovering for many away from the far north


ECMOPEU12_168_1.thumb.png.7f0a9eb35045510680336cd83adc9d72.png


doctormog
Wednesday, September 6, 2017 7:07:08 PM
Overall a rather autumnal picture with slightly below average temperatures across e board in the coming week and wetter than average to go with it based on the GFS output (and highlighted in the anomaly charts below):

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html 
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 
colin46
Wednesday, September 6, 2017 8:11:50 PM

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Overall a rather autumnal picture with slightly below average temperatures across e board in the coming week and wetter than average to go with it based on the GFS output (and highlighted in the anomaly charts below):

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html


 


shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
Gavin D
Thursday, September 7, 2017 6:34:35 PM

GFS and ECM both in agreement for a ridge of higher pressure on Tuesday UKMO getting there


ECMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.6e0df7e9c05ef68d51203ae728c126af.pngGFSOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.efc0dc59a0f1125236df0ec38d852fde.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.b57e5237d0e2d12f236b1913c8640eaf.png

Hippydave
Thursday, September 7, 2017 7:26:21 PM

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


GFS and ECM both in agreement for a ridge of higher pressure on Tuesday UKMO getting there


ECMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.6e0df7e9c05ef68d51203ae728c126af.pngGFSOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.efc0dc59a0f1125236df0ec38d852fde.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.b57e5237d0e2d12f236b1913c8640eaf.png



Bit of a blink and you'll miss it affair though



ECM has a glimmer of hope at the end of its run with HP toppling over us and a fair bit of warmer air involved - not convinced it'd stick around for too long but probably enough for 3-4 days of chiefly dry and warm weather, depending on cloud amounts.


GFS not so keen on the idea of the HP toppling over us at the same time frame and has more LP influence.


Unsettled in the near term, probably unsettled in the mid term with the odd glimmer of hope for some drier stuff.


Bit different to last year!


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
DEW
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Saturday, September 9, 2017 5:35:04 AM

Both GFS and ECM concur on a warm dry spell in about 9-10 days' time, with ECM making more of it. Continuong unsettled in the immediate future,


Clutching a straws


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gandalf The White
Sunday, September 10, 2017 7:32:23 AM

As Marcus might say, just for fun.... the first GFS tease of the season:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017091000/gfsnh-0-384.png?0



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
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Gray-Wolf
Sunday, September 10, 2017 4:29:47 PM

I've been so busy looking over the waters I've missed what is going on right on my own doorstep! Are we really to see rapid cyclogenisis occurring over us the next few days? Is this why the MetO warnings for wind ( 70 mph is 4 shy for Hurricane force) are out??


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doctormog
Sunday, September 10, 2017 4:55:25 PM
I can't see any RaCy over us in the coming days just an earlier autum storm moving across the UK. Certainly windy and worthy of the warnings in a generally unsettled outlook in the short term (with signs of something a good deal more settled in the medium to longer term).
Hippydave
Sunday, September 10, 2017 6:51:35 PM

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I can't see any RaCy over us in the coming days just an earlier autum storm moving across the UK. Certainly windy and worthy of the warnings in a generally unsettled outlook in the short term (with signs of something a good deal more settled in the medium to longer term).


Yup the progged dryer interlude is still there in both the GFS and ECM mid-term. GFS seems rather keener on this being something of a pattern change for the UK at least and keeps HP influencing us for quite a while. ECM less keen and the t240 chart suggests another autumnal spell to me.


850s aren't all that high for the time of year (initially at least, the GFS toys with some warmer but not too warm 850s) so one thing to watch for in the settled interlude/spell is some cold night time temps to go with what will hopefully be some pleasant autumn sunshine.


Given the expected hurricane wandering up the east coast of the US I suspect FI will be even more useless than usual until they resolve where that ends up and where the energy goes etc.


As an OT aside this has certainly been an unusually autumnal start to September here - generally we rarely see properly wet and windy stuff until the last third of the month or even early October. 


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Brian Gaze
Sunday, September 10, 2017 8:36:41 PM

Arpege 12z going for 75mph gusts early on Wed.



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Bolty
Sunday, September 10, 2017 8:54:33 PM

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Arpege 12z going for 75mph gusts early on Wed.




I think we might see this being named as Storm Aileen quite soon, Brian.


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Jiries
Sunday, September 10, 2017 10:17:43 PM

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


 


Yup the progged dryer interlude is still there in both the GFS and ECM mid-term. GFS seems rather keener on this being something of a pattern change for the UK at least and keeps HP influencing us for quite a while. ECM less keen and the t240 chart suggests another autumnal spell to me.


850s aren't all that high for the time of year (initially at least, the GFS toys with some warmer but not too warm 850s) so one thing to watch for in the settled interlude/spell is some cold night time temps to go with what will hopefully be some pleasant autumn sunshine.


Given the expected hurricane wandering up the east coast of the US I suspect FI will be even more useless than usual until they resolve where that ends up and where the energy goes etc.


As an OT aside this has certainly been an unusually autumnal start to September here - generally we rarely see properly wet and windy stuff until the last third of the month or even early October. 



Autumn had arrived far too early this year as early as 18th July and summer had not been recovered and we already started putting the shorts and summer duvet away.  No signs of any real warm from the latest ensembles.   

Tom Oxon
Sunday, September 10, 2017 10:53:17 PM
Stonking ECM 240 tonight!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
DEW
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Monday, September 11, 2017 6:26:18 AM

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 

Stonking ECM 240 tonight!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png


and on the western edge of the chart, none other than our friend hurricane Jose! which may have helped to pump up the warm air. But don't get too excited yet.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Hungry Tiger
Monday, September 11, 2017 1:49:10 PM

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 

Stonking ECM 240 tonight!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png



Now thats more like it.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


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