a bit rash?

looks like pretty average November weather to me for the next week before turning increasingly ‘seasonal’ with frosts redeveloping on some nights. Anything else colder will be a bonus 

 

 

To be fair - ive just checked out the GEFS, and it seems like this mornings run is perhaps of Milder Outlier inclinations.

 

Alot of clustering around the 0* to -5*c @850 range, which it has been all week.

 

It does appear alot more unsettled though, and the northern blocking less in control.  I suppose its the latter that was really lighting the fire on these boards despite the absence of real cold.  We know what that kinda setup can deliver - given a bit of patience.

 

 

 

 

---

Nordic ....how are you doing mate ? All good?

 

you should know better than to get excited by charts two weeks away . Lol 

 

I know you’ve seen more snow in a week than I’ve seen in a lifetime but us snow starved TWOers are desperate for a severe winter , please don’t join the mild crew 

---

Evening all.

Signs of the Atlantic finally wakeing up, could be quite a cool and wet end to the month if some output is to be believed. However if any cold shot into the States produces cyclogenesis then we could be in for a rough ride- we need the jet to play ball to get any real cold to these shores, though still being late Autumn we have plenty of fun and games to get through yet.

aaaaaannnnnnd .....


we go full circle.

Scandi High now in the mix and a reload from the north.

Much better run.

---

I'm struggling to see which charts posters are looking at who are saying "the Atlantic is waking up". If there's one thing that seems to characterise the model output for several days now, it is a quiet Atlantic. Albeit that any troughs that are around tend to want to sit around the UK.

The 12Z GFS for example has another mid-Atlantic ridge at 168hrs transferring to a Scandi high by 240hrs and then retrogressing to a fully plumped up Greenland High by 360hrs. Hardly the stuff of a roaring Atlantic jet.

 

Likewise the overnight ECM has heights rising over Iceland and Greenland by 240, and even the UKMO out to 144 seems to show heights building north. So I'm a bit 

---

Very nice GFS 12z tonight , consistent blocking , weather gradually getting colder and colder. PV shot to pot.

 

 

---

I'm struggling to see which charts posters are looking at who are saying "the Atlantic is waking up". If there's one thing that seems to characterise the model output for several days now, it is a quiet Atlantic. Albeit that any troughs that are around tend to want to sit around the UK.

The 12Z GFS for example has another mid-Atlantic ridge at 168hrs transferring to a Scandi high by 240hrs and then retrogressing to a fully plumped up Greenland High by 360hrs. Hardly the stuff of a roaring Atlantic jet.

 

Likewise the overnight ECM has heights rising over Iceland and Greenland by 240, and even the UKMO out to 144 seems to show heights building north. So I'm a bit 

 

Hi Rob

 

The 6z was  a wash of Low pressures after low pressures, and all the Fronts you could wish for.  This picture tells the stroy well:

 

 

Followed by 

 

 

There was a post on the other side which im struggling to find which showed a very wet picture for the 7 days + bracket.

 

This seems to have been replaced by a set of charts much more in keeping with what we were seeing the other day.

---

The GFS and UKMO appear to be invited to different parties, the former bringing lots of goodies whilst the latter just a solitary can of special brew, which no one likes. Lots of volatility as ever when Northern blocking is being modelled.

I think we'll all be happy with Pert 3

---

I’m with Rob , where is the Atlantic waking up . ?

---

Coldest of the winter so far! Snow more than possible even in the South as we head into late November 

 

 

---