Very impressive ECM this evening, got to be the best for Northern blocking so far this late Autumn, all the jigsaw pieces falling into place for northern blocking, cold air heading to the SE USA, warm air to Newfoundland, a negative NAO and a split polar vortex. A sustained negative NAO would probably follow after T240.

However northern blocking is not always a guarantee of cold as the 12Z GFS shows, but its 10 days away.... the main thing to take home from today is the increased northern blocking signal and with that there is always the chance colder air will filter down our way.

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Pretty solid trend to cool/ cold or something else later:
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Pretty solid trend to cool/ cold or something else later:
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

And wet. For all the talk of blocking, it doesn't look anticyclonic for our particular area!

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Dave is right - there is nothing to get too excited about at the moment in the output. 

The GFS ENS mean is almost totally in line with the long run average from the 14th onwards

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

The same position is shown by the GEM ENS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

But on the other hand the models are suggesting the AO and NAO will go heavily negative after the 15th. Good ensemble agreement and this has been firming up over the past few days. So longer term the latter third of November could get interesting.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

 

">http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

And wet. For all the talk of blocking, it doesn't look anticyclonic for our particular area!

 

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Yes. For that sort of blocking, even in November, you'd be entitled to expect one or two lines of spaghetti to be flirting with the minus 10C mark, yet everything stays firmly in the chilly, but damp, zero to minus 5C range.

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I must say I have found the GEM ens over a number of years to be rather useless compared with the GFS and ECM equivalents. The blocking in the midterm looks more interesting than the modelled “on the ground” conditions. With the former in place the latter could change.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_75_2.png  Almost. Too early to be significant but rather “seasonal”

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Indeed M I think reading back the key word missing is potential at this stage

 

 

I think the majority of the evidence in the short and indeed medium to longer term points at northern blocking and largely chilly conditions. No big freeze is evident currently but some of the pieces of the jigsaw are there and therefore my interest is raised too.

It is certainly worth watching the charts at the moment because, even as things stand, it looks more interesting (and less depressing) than the past few winters. That could all change and I wouldn’t be massively surprised if it did, but as things stand the outlook is not without interest even if it is not wintry nirvana.

">http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

And wet. For all the talk of blocking, it doesn't look anticyclonic for our particular area!

Blocking doesn’t necessarily mean anticyclonic conditions for us though, does it?  All it means is that the jetstream and associated low pressure systems are being deflected.

ECM 12z ensemble for London shows good ensemble support for the op and a further tick down in temperatures beyond day 10.

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And wet. For all the talk of blocking, it doesn't look anticyclonic for our particular area!

 e.g. week 2 on http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html 

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 e.g. week 2 on http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html 

To be fair that high rainfall picture is based on the track of one low pressure system at around +260 hours on the GFS 00z op run http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_264_1.png 

It is possible but a long way out.

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And wet. For all the talk of blocking, it doesn't look anticyclonic for our particular area!

Blocking doesn’t necessarily mean anticyclonic conditions for us though, does it?  All it means is that the jetstream and associated low pressure systems are being deflected.

ECM 12z ensemble for London shows good ensemble support for the op and a further tick down in temperatures beyond day 10.

 

Yes quite right. I was just pointing out that the blocking shown keeps the UK pretty cool and wet, by contrast to the ECM which in recent days has had more HP influence over us. 

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Perfect temps for the daffs in England and Wales 

Perfect temps for the daffs in England and Wales 

Let's play "spot the frontal boundary..."

Seriously, for the final week of November those values are very high for almost all of England and Wales. Where should we be for the time of year? Nearer 10C I think.

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Perfect temps for the daffs in England and Wales 

The warmer, the better IMO!

Had enough cold weather in my time now and much prefer warmth and ideally, some sunshine. Looking forward for the spring already 

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I think the models have been having us on. Seriously - this happens every year.

Looks like The atlantic is waking up without us even realizing it.

Enjoy the next few days of dryness, Autumn proper is on its way.

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I think the models have been having us on. Seriously - this happens every year.

Looks like The atlantic is waking up without us even realizing it.

Enjoy the next few days of dryness, Autumn proper is on its way.

a bit rash?

looks like pretty average November weather to me for the next week before turning increasingly ‘seasonal’ with frosts redeveloping on some nights. Anything else colder will be a bonus 

 

Check out the whorl of very cold 850s that appears in Russia under HP at T +276 in the GFS op 06z; it drifts west under the high and intensifies to -30°C- not unusual in Russia in winter, but this is an isolated little pool, quite far south, only mid-November and intensely cold. Still there at the end of the run.

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I think the models have been having us on. Seriously - this happens every year.

Looks like The atlantic is waking up without us even realizing it.

Enjoy the next few days of dryness, Autumn proper is on its way.

It's like what I said in here yesterday, as soon as cold air start to dig further south over North America, that'll then fire up the mid-Atlantic jet stream and put us here at the UK under a more mobile set up.  Northern blocking won't do much for us in terms cold/snow if it only serves to steer low pressure systems towards the UK rather than to the north - which happened in that god-awful winter of 2014.
  If I want to feel hopeful about actual wintry weather come our way, I need to see warm air shift northwards over North America and onto Canada to displace the cold elsewhere in doing so.  
  Of course, no two set ups are exactly alike but that's my take on things.

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a bit rash?

looks like pretty average November weather to me for the next week before turning increasingly ‘seasonal’ with frosts redeveloping on some nights. Anything else colder will be a bonus 

 

 

Yes looks like "proper" autumn weather returning - wet and on the cool side, unlike many recent autumns.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

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Perfect temps for the daffs in England and Wales 

I'll take that. 15-16°C in late November would certainly be a generous treat from the weather gods! 

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