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What i feared seems to be evolving in the charts this morning. Whereby we have the cold to our north,. We have the blocking in the right position.Ye the atlantic tries to fire into life and results in the UK being held in a warm sector.I do feel this might be the models yet again getting to grips with the start of winter and actually - is similar to previous attempts from winters gone by where we all Ramp away, and result with nothing.Time will tell.
Yes for all the pretty synoptics the coldest actual weather on offer in the next couple of weeks looks to be this weekend. This morning's GFS has that annoying look from 2010 where after the initial cold spell the block held too far west and the trough wafted warm air up from the south. And of course this time we don't have the sweetener of a 2010-style initial cold shot!
It would be hard to see how any milder could sustain itself with that set up, though all academic anyway at this point as next run will probably show something entirely different.
Looks like a cool month for the South this November but can't see anything in the charts yet that smacks of a decent cold spell. Always good to get some early hope though.
Another run, and even more steps towards the atlantic waking up.I really hope the GFS Is barking up the wrong tree.
On this run, in an unusual move, the GH is shunted to Canada , as a doninant LP takes up its usual residency off the coast of Ireland... drawing up mild SWlys
Normal winter service takes hold.
Not a good run.
Another run, and even more steps towards the atlantic waking up.I really hope the GFS Is barking up the wrong tree. On this run, in an unusual move, the GH is shunted to Canada , as a doninant LP takes up its usual residency off the coast of Ireland... drawing up mild SWlysNormal winter service takes hold. Not a good run.
The gfs can't help its self with blowing up the Atlantic its what it does. It's not a bad run the blocking is insane still.
A perfect example of how even a strongly negative NAO can't prevent the UK from being mired in winter dross.
It ain't winter yet...
I'll get me coat
It ain't winter yet... I'll get me coat
Maybe, but I think many people here at this time in 2015 would have given anything to have seen model runs such as those we have at the moment, in view of the unrelenting dross we had at that time which went on to dominate the entire 2015/16 winter.
Personally I dont think the low that forms around 168 on the operational is going to push through-I am going to say its going to get blocked by a ridge thrown north out of France- only 1 ensemble suggesting this but here it is
this ridge because of the ultra meridional flow would support some sort of eastlery down the line...
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=13&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0S
I'm surprised that nobody has commented on the ECM 12z.
T+240
You know things are getting potentially interesting when Steve Murr starts posting!
All we need is Codge back and it will be like the old days
I'm surprised that nobody has commented on the ECM 12z.T+240
me too, quite a good cold run with the high pressure building up and across nicely. Rather chilly should it come about
martin
Well I am far from excited. A look at the GEFS ensemble set shows nothing but standard variability. It is always the same as we approach winter and people start saying things are different. Given our inability to forecast at any great distance I won't be putting money on anything severe yet.
Well said Dave, but common sense will rarely prevail once the fever sets in 😉
I think I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic; certainly not excited.
Of course the model output could change back to something zonal but we can only comment on what is being shown. That is currently for increased evidence of northern blocking. Don't you think it would be as wrong to suggest that there are no signals as it would be to suggest a definite cold spell?
I think I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic; certainly not excited.Of course the model output could change back to something zonal but we can only comment on what is being shown. That is currently for increased evidence of northern blocking. Don't you think it would be as wrong to suggest that there are no signals as it would be to suggest a definite cold spell?
Very wise words, Gandalf.
What is currently being shown by the models may ultimately end up in no notable cold spell materialising, but as you rightly say, we can only comment on what is being shown by the models at this moment in time. What exactly these synoptics will mean for us should they materialise as shown, and what happens further down the line, we can only speculate on just now.