Is anyone here NOT a fan of cold winter weather and looking for mild synoptics?

 

Me! Hate winter, just want to get through it unscathed, undisrupted, sporting fixtures intact, and with as low a fuel bill as possible. Just get me to Spring!

Would be happy if every winter was like 1988/9. Give me a big fat Bartlett any time....

As a weather enthusiat, however,  a cold snowy winter is always very interesting though.

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Well, it looks as though something interesting is brewing for around 22nd November - we just need to see it progressing towards the reliable timeframe.

Some of the best winters start early.

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The height anomalies on the latest GFS run are something to behold.

 

Would be even better if that trough could sink down towards Italy a bit.

It's an almost perfect set up except that everything is a tad too far north-west. Ideally you want the high pressure a little closer and the low pressure a little further east or south-east. Not sure about as far as Italy - IIRC that's usually the argument for support for a Scandi high.  As it stands there's enough space for cyclogenesis to put much of the country into milder air.

The other problem is that it's only the second half of November and the airmass doesn't look cold enough yet. At the moment it's cold rain for all but higher ground.

Now, if that's still the dominant pattern in four weeks from now.....

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The height anomalies on the latest GFS run are something to behold.

 

Would be even better if that trough could sink down towards Italy a bit.

 

Its quite easy to get excited about height anomalies however what they are an anomaly from is important.  You can have + figures for the whole of the north Atlantic and still it be dominated by mild LPs.  Would be nice to see the control of what a standard "Average" looking chart would look like to compare to. 

 

Either way, its nice to see these kind of setups in our models. :)

 

 

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Worth noting the solar cycle:

http://www.solarham.net/

Sun has been spotless for several days now. Perhaps it is too early to get excited, since it is a lagging indicator, but SC 24 had a low max and is heading rapidly towards an early minimum. There is a definite correlation in historical data records between extended minima and negative NAO. Not sure anybody understands why that should be, although there are theories to do with the impact on the Stratosphere which may propagate down and affect the PV, but the best correlation comes from matching historic cosmic ray evidence against climate. Cosmic rays are more abundent at the surface of the earth during solar minima and that leaves a fossil record for analysis.

Article here:

http://www.pnas.org/content/109/16/5967.full

 

 

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GFS ENS for SLP in Nuuk (Greenland) paints a promising picture and shows nicely the projected rise in pressure in the 7-day timeframe

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSENS06_64_-52_208.png

 

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Well, it looks as though something interesting is brewing for around 22nd November - we just need to see it progressing towards the reliable timeframe.

Some of the best winters start early.

Indeed and any early colder snaps can only help cool adjacent land and water surrounding our Island. 0.5C can make a lot of difference to those knife edge situations we will inevitably get at some stage later in the winter.

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GFS 12z ppt type charts are interesting for this weekend. The northerly seems to have become slightly more potent on recent model runs and I'm not ruling out the possibility of seeing a few flakes of snow falling in the Chilterns.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=66&chartname=preciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

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Well, it looks as though something interesting is brewing for around 22nd November - we just need to see it progressing towards the reliable timeframe.

Some of the best winters start early.

.....or simply front loaded.

Winters rarely start early and maintain a cold pattern throughout

GFS 12z ppt type charts are interesting for this weekend. The northerly seems to have become slightly more potent on recent model runs and I'm not ruling out the possibility of seeing a few flakes of snow falling in the Chilterns.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=66&chartname=preciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

Yes indeed Brian. I have noticed that in contrast to the last “northerly” this one seems to have become more intense as the time has approached. The Met Office is currently forecasting wintry showers to low levels up here on Sunday.

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Interestingly, ITV Weather ended with a nod at the Metoffice Long range 30 day forecast. They pointed at the fact it highlights an increased likely hood of colder weather.

I dont think ive ever seen that on a national weather TV forecast before.

Must be serious.

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Well the back end of the 12z ECM certainly has raised my eyebrows. Insane blocking.

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A hardly credible GFS solution this evening, with everything once again drifting W-E until FI when it suddenly all finds energy to push the other way at about 60-65N in our longitudes.

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Yes stunning end to the latest Ecm, growing consensus of some properly cold weather in the last third of November . 

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Well the back end of the 12z ECM certainly has raised my eyebrows. Insane blocking.

It raised mine too, Kieren.

Still very early days, and after the disappointment of last year I'm more determined than ever to keep my feet firmly on the ground for now. That said, the longer the models stick with these solutions, then the chances of a cold spell coming to pass is surely increased.

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Yes stunning end to the latest Ecm, growing consensus of some properly cold weather in the last third of November . 

There's quite a few signs of that. Need to follow all the chart forecasts.

 

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Hi All. I’ve been resisting looking at model output and long range outlooks (plus I’ve been so busy) until yesterday when suddenly I switch on expecting the usual Ian Brown’s favourite front page headlines ...instead things look decidedly promising in the long range wording with strongish support from the models into the period of concern - late Nov onwards.

The way it reads is astonishingly close to how it did this time in 2010.

The PV should start becoming very disrupted soon and the NAO going negative.

Didn’t someone say our weather cycles in 7 year general system changes? “Cough”

Certainly looking anticyclonic going by the ECM late-term. Looking Nov '10 -eqsue

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A hardly credible GFS solution this evening, with everything once again drifting W-E until FI when it suddenly all finds energy to push the other way at about 60-65N in our longitudes.

Can you explain your comment because that's not what I saw when I looked at the output and looking again I still don't see what you're seeing.

All I can see is energy pushing south east and pressure somewhat higher to our north.

 

Interesting to see the ECM operational evolution tonight. As always it will be helpful to see where it sits in the the ensemble chart later tonight.

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Can you explain your comment because that's not what I saw when I looked at the output and looking again I still don't see what you're seeing.

All I can see is energy pushing south east and pressure somewhat higher to our north.

 

Interesting to see the ECM operational evolution tonight. As always it will be helpful to see where it sits in the the ensemble chart later tonight.

hi Gandalf. I think he simply means things turn anti cyclonic. In an unbelievable fashion (rather than uncredible).