e.g. week 2 on http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html 

To be fair that high rainfall picture is based on the track of one low pressure system at around +260 hours on the GFS 00z op run http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_264_1.png 

It is possible but a long way out.

Yes quite right. I was just pointing out that the blocking shown keeps the UK pretty cool and wet, by contrast to the ECM which in recent days has had more HP influence over us. 

Perfect temps for the daffs in England and Wales 

Let's play "spot the frontal boundary..."

Seriously, for the final week of November those values are very high for almost all of England and Wales. Where should we be for the time of year? Nearer 10C I think.

The warmer, the better IMO!

Had enough cold weather in my time now and much prefer warmth and ideally, some sunshine. Looking forward for the spring already 

Looks like The atlantic is waking up without us even realizing it.

Enjoy the next few days of dryness, Autumn proper is on its way.

looks like pretty average November weather to me for the next week before turning increasingly ‘seasonal’ with frosts redeveloping on some nights. Anything else colder will be a bonus 

Check out the whorl of very cold 850s that appears in Russia under HP at T +276 in the GFS op 06z; it drifts west under the high and intensifies to -30°C- not unusual in Russia in winter, but this is an isolated little pool, quite far south, only mid-November and intensely cold. Still there at the end of the run.

Yes looks like "proper" autumn weather returning - wet and on the cool side, unlike many recent autumns.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I'll take that. 15-16°C in late November would certainly be a generous treat from the weather gods! 

To be fair - ive just checked out the GEFS, and it seems like this mornings run is perhaps of Milder Outlier inclinations.

Alot of clustering around the 0* to -5*c @850 range, which it has been all week.

It does appear alot more unsettled though, and the northern blocking less in control.  I suppose its the latter that was really lighting the fire on these boards despite the absence of real cold.  We know what that kinda setup can deliver - given a bit of patience.

Nordic ....how are you doing mate ? All good?

you should know better than to get excited by charts two weeks away . Lol 

I know you’ve seen more snow in a week than I’ve seen in a lifetime but us snow starved TWOers are desperate for a severe winter , please don’t join the mild crew 

Signs of the Atlantic finally wakeing up, could be quite a cool and wet end to the month if some output is to be believed. However if any cold shot into the States produces cyclogenesis then we could be in for a rough ride- we need the jet to play ball to get any real cold to these shores, though still being late Autumn we have plenty of fun and games to get through yet.

we go full circle.

Scandi High now in the mix and a reload from the north.

Much better run.

I'm struggling to see which charts posters are looking at who are saying "the Atlantic is waking up". If there's one thing that seems to characterise the model output for several days now, it is a quiet Atlantic. Albeit that any troughs that are around tend to want to sit around the UK.

The 12Z GFS for example has another mid-Atlantic ridge at 168hrs transferring to a Scandi high by 240hrs and then retrogressing to a fully plumped up Greenland High by 360hrs. Hardly the stuff of a roaring Atlantic jet.

Likewise the overnight ECM has heights rising over Iceland and Greenland by 240, and even the UKMO out to 144 seems to show heights building north. So I'm a bit 

Very nice GFS 12z tonight , consistent blocking , weather gradually getting colder and colder. PV shot to pot.

Hi Rob

The 6z was  a wash of Low pressures after low pressures, and all the Fronts you could wish for.  This picture tells the stroy well:

Followed by 

There was a post on the other side which im struggling to find which showed a very wet picture for the 7 days + bracket.

This seems to have been replaced by a set of charts much more in keeping with what we were seeing the other day.

I think we'll all be happy with Pert 3

I’m with Rob , where is the Atlantic waking up . ?