In all honesty - Yes. I’m absolutely certain. No hurricane would maintain its characteristic over our waters. You’ve seen how hurricanes can deteriorate immediately once in contact with land. This is what happens to any hurricane and former hurricane once it gets anywhere near these shores due to the much cooler waters.
Then how do you explain Tropical storm Grace which was at the same latitude as Devon when it finally transitioned just to the south of Ireland?
Or Hurricane Faith that transitioned near the Fareo islands? Or Hurricane Vince over Spain?
Cold water is not an irreconcilable problem in the same way landfall is. Tropical storm grace actually formed over 20C water. Medicanes, which are tropical like systems can form over water as cold as 15C.
Convection can overcome cold water provided the upper troposphere is also very cold. If you look at Emanual's basic theory the real thing that matters is the vertical instability; so cold upper tropospheric anomalies can compensate for cold SSTs although the convection will be muted due to a lower tropopause.
Cold water is not the reason the UK doesn't get hurricanes, Wind shear is a far bigger issue but if Ophelia can get a bit of distance between itself and the trough then it will take more time to disrupt its inner core.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.