http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.gif

We deserve this after all the crap we've been through

Would be a nice way to finish the winter

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020606/gfsnh-1-384.png?6

Be funny if snow came throughout March

 

bloody wouldnt be , after last years vile puke it would be nice to get the growing season off on time for a change ,  yes want a good frost  to kill of the grubs buried in the soil and to get the spuds in the ground in March rather than May ta very much

It could be a disaster for the growing industry.....the most crucial thing needed is a reduction of rain

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.gif

We deserve this after all the crap we've been through

Would be a nice way to finish the winter

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020606/gfsnh-1-384.png?6

Be funny if snow came throughout March

Hi Marcus

March is often cold which I tend to hate actually. But this year after all this rain, wind and mildness, I say bring it on.

There have been a few signals deep into FI of a pattern change.  This is often expected in late Jan and February when the jet tends to weaken and perhaps this will occur this year but just later.

I like the way in deep FI how the Scandi block is reinforced by the arctic high.

Will be taking a muchcloser interset in the ECM 240 over the coming week.

 

 

Mmm 6z looking good in far 384 hours another bail of straw to hold on 2 .something for the coldies

Mmm 6z looking good in far 384 hours another bail of straw to hold on 2 .something for the coldies

I don't happen to think it is straw clutching. The prevailing weather will change at some point and as we get closer to the vernal equinox, change becomes more likely. It is perfectly possible that as the weather becomes more settled, it also becomes much colder - large HP cells have been lurking to our east and to our north for some time now - once the Atlantic quietens down, they may be ready to pounce!

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Mmm 6z looking good in far 384 hours another bail of straw to hold on 2 .something for the coldies

There have been a number of runs on GFS that has hinted at a more settled/colder spell, a trend to watch

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Lets hope the cold comes sooner and not pushed back into f1 . Be fun with lots of ice rinks every where with all the flood water u wont need a boat to get home in Dorset but some ice skates will be needed

Some support for end of month cold is appearing.

GFS control run also is quite decent from T+276 esp for the north.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-276.png?

ECM control is also in a colder cluster in de Bilt ens.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

A lot of runs to get through yet though

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Some support for end of month cold is appearing.

GFS control run also is quite decent from T+276 esp for the north.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-276.png?

ECM control is also in a colder cluster in de Bilt ens.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

A lot of runs to get through yet though

It is a logical progression. Pressure is building to the north and as the sun starts to impact on the Polar night jet, the vortex will become less powerful.

February often sees a more settled spell of weather as a consequence of a decline in vorticity - it is just starting from a very bad place this year, so it is taking time to manifest itself.

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Hi all,

Very speculative video update today, but we're looking at the chances of drier (and colder) conditions after mid-month;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

 

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Some support for end of month cold is appearing.

GFS control run also is quite decent from T+276 esp for the north.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-276.png?

ECM control is also in a colder cluster in de Bilt ens.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

A lot of runs to get through yet though

It is a logical progression. Pressure is building to the north and as the sun starts to impact on the Polar night jet, the vortex will become less powerful.

February often sees a more settled spell of weather as a consequence of a decline in vorticity - it is just starting from a very bad place this year, so it is taking time to manifest itself.

Having just checked my copy of Collins:The Ultimate Guide to the Elements I find that February is usually considerably drier month than January, and surprisingly March is drier still.

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Both UKMO and GFS say it could be cold enough for some snow around the 10th and 11th

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020612/UW96-7.GIF?06-17

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Again signs of change mid month, and a welcome taste of cold

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020612/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

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Both UKMO and GFS say it could be cold enough for some snow around the 10th and 11th

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020612/UW96-7.GIF?06-17

Aside from a hut on Ben Nevis I doubt it with those uppers.

Again signs of change mid month, and a welcome taste of cold

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020612/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

Its the DRY we are after, Beast!

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020612/gfs-0-384.png?12?12 

I don't care what it does, warm or cold, all I want is continuous dry weather...

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Seeing potentially very disruptive snow event next tuesday, even lower levels could see excess of 5, even 10cm if nothing goes wrong. Easily the snowiest event all winter so far. Expecting amber warning by the metoffice. 

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Again signs of change mid month, and a welcome taste of cold

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020612/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

Its the DRY we are after, Beast!

Not much sign of that from the 12z so far.

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Both UKMO and GFS say it could be cold enough for some snow around the 10th and 11th

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020612/UW96-7.GIF?06-17

Aside from a hut on Ben Nevis I doubt it with those uppers.

Don't fall into a 850 addiction :P

Remember that is a warm occluded front, you need uppers of only about -3C to get snow on that provided it is well defined, uppers take no account of the lapse rate which means the rules are different for different situs. Uppers of between -4 and -6 are easily cold enough for a snow event on especially tuesday. 

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Hi ink that is 5 consecutive GFS runs now showing colder options after 192 hours. A trend, but more runs and time will tell if it develops. Looks like the progression is similarly shown through ECM. At least that should mean drier, although not so bad here as in shelter of Wales and we have a lot less flooding than last year.
Martin

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Hi all,

Very speculative video update today, but we're looking at the chances of drier (and colder) conditions after mid-month;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

 

Let's hope that it does turn drier at some point this month, even if it isn't particularly cold with it.

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